NFL Luck Rankings Week 10: Bottom 2 Swap Spots; Betting Opportunity
Via Getty Images. Pictured: Arthur Smith of the Atlanta Falcons and Mike Tomlin of the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are in for Week 10.
These rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.
Unlucky teams that met at least one of the two thresholds — at least 24 places more unlucky than their opponent in these rankings or at least 50% more unlucky than their opponent — are 7-7-2 against the spread (ATS) this year. Overall, unlucky teams meeting at least one threshold are 103-61-6 (62.4%) ATS since the start of 2018.
Here's how the full NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 10.
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NFL Week 10 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
| RANK | TEAM | Luck % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 35.15% | |
| 2 | 23.53% | |
| 3 | 20.91% | |
| 4 | 12.23% | |
| 5 | 9.01% | |
| 6 | 8.15% | |
| 7 | 7.97% | |
| 8 | 7.93% | |
| 9 | 7.92% | |
| 10 | 6.07% | |
| 11 | 5.97% | |
| 12 | 4.82% | |
| 13 | 3.07% | |
| 14 | 1.36% | |
| 15 | -1.81% | |
| 16 | -3.06% | |
| 17 | -3.19% | |
| 18 | -3.33% | |
| 19 | -3.44% | |
| 20 | -4.87% | |
| 21 | -5.17% | |
| 22 | -6.86% | |
| 23 | -7.35% | |
| 24 | -9.23% | |
| 25 | -11.64% | |
| 26 | -11.84% | |
| 27 | -11.94% | |
| 28 | -12.35% | |
| 29 | -12.73% | |
| 30 | -14.41% | |
| 31 | -15.57% | |
| 32 | -16.92% |
The Luckiest Teams
1. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers' luck train continues after another slightly lucky result. The 20-16 win over the Tennessee Titans was actually only a three-point win by our Expected Score metric.
The Steelers are 5-0 in one-score games, with an expected record of just 2-3 in those. The Steelers have had the smaller win probability entering the fourth quarter in four their of five wins. This is the luckiest team in the NFL through nine weeks.
Amazingly, the Steelers have been the luckiest team in the NFL in three of the last four years. In both 2020 and '21, they ranked No. 1 in our Luck Rankings after nine weeks and had a combined 13-3 (81.3%) record. However, after Week 9, Pittsburgh ended the season with just .500 records in both years, winding up 8-8-1 in those games.
Rather than a Steelers or Mike Tomlin trend, that just shows that luck eventually reverts to the mean.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
Prior to Monday Night Football, the Eagles were the third-luckiest team of the week after a 28-23 win over NFC East rivals Dallas. That moves Philadelphia to 5-1 in one-score games this year.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati picked up a solid win over Buffalo in Week 9. By virtue of the 24-18 scoreline being relatively in line with Expected Score, that drops the Bengals below the Eagles.
The Unluckiest Teams
30. Green Bay Packers
A 20-6 win over the Matthew Stafford-less Rams is a solid win for the Packers, who move to 3-5 this season. Green Bay remains at 1-3 in one-score games, with the three losses by a combined seven points.
The Packers played much closer to a 4-4 team as they head into a Week 10 Luck Matchup on the road against the luckiest team in the NFL — the Pittsburgh Steelers — in a game that's setting off signals for plenty of luck-based trends.
31. Chicago Bears
The Bears move off the bottom line because they were not blown out by New Orleans. Their 24-17 loss should have been much bigger if not for some luck, as our Expected Score pegged this game at 34-16.
32. Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons take another loss, and this one was disastrous.
Atlanta took a loss to backup Jaren Hall, who was then injured early on, and Joshua Dobbs, who was acquired just days before the game. Technically, this was a slightly unlucky result for Atlanta, as the 31-28 final score should have been more like 24-23 in favor of the Vikings.
Combined with the Bears result, that moves the Falcons below Chicago as the luckiest team in the NFL through nine weeks.
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