NFL Picks, Predictions: Conference Championship Expert Bets
Action Network/Getty Images. Pictured: Jahmyr Gibbs (top) and Isiah Pacheco (bottom).
NFL Picks, Predictions: Conference Championship Expert Bets
I have four NFL picks and predictions for the Conference Championship games — Chiefs vs. Ravens and Lions vs. 49ers — on Sunday. Click on the team logos for any of the Conference Championship matchups below to navigate to a specific bet.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| 6:30 p.m. | ||
| 3 p.m. | ||
| 3 p.m. | ||
| 3 p.m. | ||
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Chiefs vs. Ravens
The Ravens’ average first-half point differential of +7.9 paces the NFL by nearly two full points, and if you exclude Week 18 — when they were resting starters — that figure jumps to +8.4. This isn’t just small-sample variance, either, as Baltimore is an absurd 50 games over .500 against the first-half spread since John Harbaugh took over in 2008, going 160-110-9 (59%), according to our Bet Labs data.
Like Baltimore’s long-standing preseason dominance, its sustained success in the first half is the mark of a well-coached and well-run organization. So too are the Chiefs, but there’s a reason the Ravens occupy the Chiefs’ usual spot as host of the AFC Championship game this year. Patrick Mahomes may be the best quarterback on the planet, but Lamar Jackson has been the better quarterback this season — Jackson heads a Baltimore outfit that has been superior to Kansas City in every facet of the game.
| Stat | Chiefs | Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| Pass Offense DVOA | 8th | 5th |
| Rush Offense DVOA | 17th | 1st |
| Pass Defense DVOA | 5th | 1st |
| Rush Defense DVOA | 27th | 7th |
| Special Teams DVOA | 6th | 3rd |
To put things in perspective, Baltimore’s run defense is what most would consider its weakest unit, yet it still ranks 20 spots higher than Kansas City.
On the one hand, if you’re going to have a weakness, a bad run defense is generally preferable to shortcomings in the passing game from an analytical standpoint. On the other hand, if there were ever a situation in which you do not want to have a bad run defense, it’s in a cold, wet, windy road game against Jackson and the league’s No. 1 rush offense – a rush offense so good that it is more efficient than over half the league’s passing offenses, literally (Baltimore’s rushing DVOA of 18.7% would rank 16th among passing offenses).
The health factor also favors the Ravens starting fast. They are slated to get Jackson’s favorite target, Mark Andrews, back for the first time since Week 11, so the Chiefs don’t have any recent tape of this offense in its final form with Andrews.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs will start a different interior line combination for the first time all season with left guard Joe Thuney doubtful with a pec injury. PFF grades Thuney as the No. 1 pass-blocking guard in the NFL among 78 qualifiers.
Baltimore could also get back cornerback Marlon Humphrey for the first time since Week 16, giving an already stacked defense even more options in coverage. Humphrey has allowed a 50.0% catch rate and a 67.4 passer rating this season, and his inside/outside versatility will make the Chiefs have to prepare for a potential shadow matchup with Rashee Rice.
The Ravens also have a massive situational edge. Not only is this the Chiefs’ second straight road game – and second playoff road game ever in the Mahomes era – but they’ll face a Ravens squad that is playing their fourth consecutive home game and has not been on the road since last Christmas. According to our Action Labs data, when a team playing its third straight home game or better faces an opponent on at least its second straight road game, the home team is 36-26-2 (58%) ATS in the first half since 2003, including 7-4 (64%) ATS with an average cover margin of +6.0 in the postseason over the last decade.
Baltimore sputtered offensively and on special teams in the first half last week. It failed to handle the Texans' blitz and allowed Steven Sims to house a 67-yard punt return that sent the game to halftime knotted at 10 apiece, thwarting the Ravens' bid at covering the first-half spread (-5.5).
Coming out rusty was understandable. Ravens starters hadn’t played in three weeks while Houston had been playing must-win games since before the playoffs began – but I think this is a pristine spot to buy back in. Last week marked just the fourth time all season that Baltimore failed to cover the first-half spread in what has otherwise been a stellar 14-4 (78%) first-half ATS campaign – one in which the Ravens have yet to suffer back-to-back first-half ATS losses.
The Ravens should come out of the gate a lot sharper on Sunday, and it starts with Jackson. The presumptive league MVP finally got the Divisional Round monkey off his back, in the process conquering a man-heavy, blitz-heavy Texans defensive scheme that may end up being a preview of what’s to come from the Chiefs and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo. Investing in the Ravens on the first-half line not only allows you to avoid fading Mahomes and his 9-1-1 career ATS mark as a full-game 'dog, but it also avoids messing with a Chiefs defense that leads the NFL in second-half points per game allowed (7.0).
As far as the first half goes, though? No bueno as of late for the Chiefs, who are just 1-7 ATS in Mahomes’ last eight starts, according to our Action Labs data. Meanwhile, the Ravens are 13-4 (77%) against the first-half number in Jackson’s starts this season, and for his career, he has raised the already skyscraping first-half bar set by Harbaugh, going 51-29-2 (64%) ATS and covering by an average of 2.5 points per game.
Pick: Ravens First Half -2.5 (-120); Bet to -3.
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Chiefs vs. Ravens
Against Houston, Edwards had only 10 carries while Justice Hill (13) and Dalvin Cook (eight) combined for 21, but Edwards was removed from the game as a precaution early in the fourth quarter due to a minor hand injury. At the time he exited, he was leading the backfield with 10 carries while Hill had eight and Cook had zero.
Edwards now faces a Chiefs rush defense that ranks 27th in DVOA and 28th in yards per carry allowed to running backs (4.44). The Chiefs have struggled against shotgun runs, ranking bottom five in success rate, which is where Edwards thrives, averaging 4.5 yards per carry compared to 3.8 under center.
Edwards has rushed for at least 48 yards in 11-of-18 games (61%). Among the seven times he failed to do so were four matchups against top-10 run defenses in DVOA, including three in the top four (No. 2 Houston twice, No. 4 Cleveland), and two more games in which the since-injured Keaton Mitchell (IR; knee) logged nine carries apiece.
While Cook got eight carries in the Divisional Round, all eight came in garbage time, and he played only one snap — as a decoy — while the game was in doubt. The Ghost of Cook is averaging 3.5 yards per touch to Mitchell’s 8.7 and is not a threat to the workload of Edwards (and Hill) the way Mitchell was.
Pick: Gus Edwards Over 41.5 Rushing Yards (-118); Bet to 43.5.
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Chiefs vs. Ravens
Many of the best prop-betting values will go against conventional wisdom. Pacheco has been sitting out of practice this week with ankle and toe injuries, and his team is a road underdog that will be without top interior lineman Joe Thuney (pectoral).
So, why do I still like his longest rush over?
Pacheco has already stated he will “absolutely” play on Sunday. In other words, his practice DNPs are maintenance-related, readying him for what figures to be a large workload against a Ravens defense that ranks 19th in early down rush success rate allowed on the season (38.2%) and 30th in early down rush success rate allowed since Week 10 (42.4%), according to RBSDM.com.
Baltimore has allowed a rush of at least 16 yards in 12-of-18 games (67%) and a rush of at least 19 yards in 10-of-18 (56%). Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald is comfortable staying with light boxes on early downs to keep his best 11 on the field and protect against explosive passes, and it’s difficult to envision that philosophy shifting as his unit gets set to take on Patrick Mahomes.
As far as Thuney, the absence of PFF’s No. 1 pass-blocking guard will loom large in the passing game, but has little bearing on Pacheco’s rushing efficiency as it pertains to this prop. Pacheco has run behind his left guard only 28 times for 77 yards (2.8 YPC) all season, with a long gain of just eight yards. On all interior runs to the left, Pacheco has 88 carries for 297 yards (3.4 YPC), also with a long of eight. All of Pacheco’s explosive runs have come when either running right or around the left end.
Potential negative game script always has to be taken into account when betting the over on a rushing prop, but it shouldn’t have a major impact on Pacheco in this market. Pacheco handled 88% of the backfield carries last week and should get plenty of opportunities early in the game on early downs due to Baltimore’s aforementioned vulnerability against early down runs.
And it’s not like Pacheco needed ideal game-script conditions as he popped for runs of 19-plus yards in six of his last nine games, including three of Kansas City’s four losses over that span. Reduce the sample to the previous seven games, and the second-year Rutgers product has a carry of at least 23 yards in five of those seven, including each of the last three.
Pick: Isiah Pacheco Longest Rush Over 15.5 (-105); Bet to 17.5.
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Lions vs. 49ers
Despite sharing the backfield with David Montgomery, Gibbs has ripped off a run of at least 17 yards in 9-of-14 games (64%) with Montgomery active and 12-of-17 overall (71%). The market has (rightly) lowered the Lions' team rushing numbers due to a projected negative game script as a 7-point dog, but I believe that has created an edge because Montgomery is more likely to feel the brunt of the dip, as the matchup sets up much better for Gibbs.
Why? Well, the Lions are dealing with injuries on the interior of their offensive line – left guard Jonah Jackson is listed as doubtful with a knee injury and center Frank Ragnow is questionable with an ankle injury that he played through last week – but still have elite tackles in Taylor Decker and Penei Sewell. The speedy Gibbs, who finished top five in DVOA on outside runs during the regular season, is Detroit’s preferred perimeter ball carrier while Montgomery handles more of the dirty work inside.
The 49ers profile as a run-funnel defense (fourth in defensive passing DVOA but 15th against the run), but more specifically, an outside-run funnel defense – particularly as of late. Since Week 15, the Niners' run defense has posted a -18.3% DVOA against inside runs (negative in this context means good from a defensive standpoint, and vice-versa) but a 27.0% DVOA versus outside runs.
Longest rush prop overs are nice because they don’t necessarily depend as much on volume as carry props and don’t depend as much on efficiency as standard yardage props, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if Gibbs puts up big numbers across all categories given that the 49ers have all the ingredients to thwart Detroit’s usual advantages elsewhere.
An outstanding, Fred Warner-led linebacking corps that can constrict the space Sam LaPorta has to work with underneath; an excellent outside corner (Charvarius Ward, ranked eighth of 129 qualified cornerbacks by PFF) paired with a strong slot corner (Deommodore Lenoir; 25th) to match up with Amon-Ra St. Brown; a deep, ferocious D-line headed by Nick Bosa that is every bit as elite as Detroit’s O-line and is capable of generating pressure without the blitz, which allows defensive coordinator Steve Wilks to drop seven into coverage and muddle throwing windows for Jared Goff, who is known to struggle both outdoors and against pressure.
With the Lions recently losing blocking tight ends Brock Wright (IR; forearm) and James Mitchell (IR; hand) and replacing them with glorified slot receivers (Anthony Firkser and Zach Ertz), they simply don’t have the bodies to lean into the power run game out of heavy personnel.
If you’re Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, all roads lead back to getting your best athlete in space against a 49ers defense that missed nine tackles last week (according to PFF), seven of which came against Aaron Jones, who got loose for a season-long 53-yard run.
Johnson has tended to lean on Gibbs in these spots. In each of Detroit’s three losses since the Week 9 bye (29-22 to Green Bay in Week 12, 28-13 to Chicago in Week 14, 20-19 to Dallas in Week 17), Gibbs carried the ball at least 11 times – including out-carrying Montgomery in each of the last two – while recording long carries of 23, 36, and 17, respectively.
Overall, the rookie No. 12 overall pick Formerly Known As A Reach has recorded a rush of at least 17 yards in seven of his last nine games.
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Longest Rush Over 14.5 (-115); Bet to 16.5.
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