- There are three NFL player props offering betting value on Sunday's main slate for Week 12.
- Bills QB Josh Allen makes his return from an elbow injury, and oddsmakers have missed the mark on one of his props.
Sometimes real-football trash is our prop-betting treasure.
The Bills vs Jaguars may be an irrelevant game between two poor teams, but it gifts us one of the best Week 12 prop bets this week. Rookie Josh Allen returns from an elbow injury, and it’s almost as if bookmakers have forgotten what a Josh Allen start looks like.
Let’s keep this train rolling with three more player props after a nice 2-1 showing on the Thanksgiving slate.
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 190-89 (66%)
- Article picks: 33-17 (66%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 218-166 (57%)
All odds as of Saturday evening at 11:30 p.m. ET.
Bills QB Josh Allen
Under 18 Completions (-115 at Sportsbook.com)
I originally booked this bet at under 18.5, and it has since dropped by half a completion.
Even at the lower number, this feels like a bit of a trap — Allen has a career-best of 18 pass completions, and through six starts, and he’s averaging 12.6 per game.
It’s also Allen’s first start since damaging the UCL in the elbow of his throwing arm in Week 6.
Are the Bills really going to give Allen a career-high in pass attempts at home against Jaguars defense allowing the third-fewest yards and second-fewest completions (19.7) per game to QBs?
If they do, more credit to the Bills coaching staff for being smarter than guys like Sean Koerner, who projects Allen well south of this line with 15.5 completions.
I wouldn’t play this number any lower than what it’s listed at currently.