Best Week 12 Player Props: Cashing in on Josh Allen’s Return
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Josh Allen
- There are three NFL player props offering betting value on Sunday's main slate for Week 12.
- Bills QB Josh Allen makes his return from an elbow injury, and oddsmakers have missed the mark on one of his props.
Sometimes real-football trash is our prop-betting treasure.
The Bills vs Jaguars may be an irrelevant game between two poor teams, but it gifts us one of the best Week 12 prop bets this week. Rookie Josh Allen returns from an elbow injury, and it’s almost as if bookmakers have forgotten what a Josh Allen start looks like.
Let’s keep this train rolling with three more player props after a nice 2-1 showing on the Thanksgiving slate.
- Props Tool Bet Quality 10 Record: 190-89 (66%)
- Article picks: 33-17 (66%)
- Bet the Prop Overall Record: 218-166 (57%)
All odds as of Saturday evening at 11:30 p.m. ET.
Bills QB Josh Allen
Under 18 Completions (-115)
I originally booked this bet at under 18.5, and it has since dropped by half a completion.
Even at the lower number, this feels like a bit of a trap — Allen has a career-best of 18 pass completions, and through six starts, and he’s averaging 12.6 per game.
It’s also Allen’s first start since damaging the UCL in the elbow of his throwing arm in Week 6.
Are the Bills really going to give Allen a career-high in pass attempts at home against Jaguars defense allowing the third-fewest yards and second-fewest completions (19.7) per game to QBs?
If they do, more credit to the Bills coaching staff for being smarter than guys like Sean Koerner, who projects Allen well south of this line with 15.5 completions.
I wouldn’t play this number any lower than what it’s listed at currently.
Bills RB LeSean McCoy
Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Let’s stay with the Bills game and leverage that Allen play with McCoy’s rushing yards total.
The number has also been set at 48.5 yards (also -115), making this line a solid value.
While the Jaguars play decent run defense, allowing the 10th-fewest rush yards per game at 81.5, they’re far from the dominant unit of last year. And now sporting six-straight losses, they appear to have packed it in for 2018.
Yes, McCoy is averaging just 42.2 yards per game in a down year, but this line of 44.5 is just too low to resist, especially at home and with a rookie QB returning from an arm injury.
With oddsmakers predicting a close game (the Jaguars are 3-point favorites), the Buffalo running back should have opportunities to build on his 113-yard outing the last time out.
Sean Koerner projects 49.3 yards on 13.5 carries for McCoy, so we don’t have a lot of breathing room. I’d still play this number up to the 48.5 listed, though. At the 45.5 line, I’d pay the juice up to -122.
Buccaneers WR Adam Humphries
Over 3.5 Receptions (-130)
Humphries is averaging four receptions per game this season, a number that swells to 4.6 when Jameis Winston starts.
After taking over from Ryan Fitzpatrick last week, Winston peppered Humphries with four targets in just 20 minutes of play, a 12-target pace.
Slot receivers of the Humphries’ mold have been particularly busy against San Francisco, with Golden Tate (7) Larry Fitzgerald (8), Adam Thielen (6), Robert Woods, (5), and Keenan Allen (7) all posting at least five catches against the 49ers.
With a projection of 4 receptions, I’d be willing to pay up to -140 to get this line.