NFL Player Props: Bet Sam LaPorta, C.J. Mosley on Sunday (Week 3)
Via Cooper Neill/Getty Images. Pictured: Sam LaPorta #87 of the Detroit Lions runs the ball during at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on September 7, 2023 in Kansas City, Missouri.
In what’s evolving into the year of the rookie tight end, Lions second-round pick Sam LaPorta has stood out from the start.
LaPorta has been thrust right into the role T.J. Hockenson vacated upon his trade to the Vikings last season. The Iowa product (LaPorta, that is) has run a route on 77% of Jared Goff’s dropbacks across his first two games.
The results have been encouraging as he has recorded five catches in each game and ranks third on the Lions in targets with 11.
Today LaPorta should be in for another featured role. Receivers Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds enter this contest with questionable tags, and even with both expected to play, it’s likely that neither will be playing at 100%.
With fellow rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs’ role still in question, LaPorta’s role might be the most solidified amongst Lions pass catchers today.
The Falcons have allowed a 21% target share to opposing tight ends through two games and are coming off a season in which they permitted 5.2 catches per game to the position group.
I project LaPorta for seven targets and expect him to convert those into another five catches.
C.J. Mosley, one of the linchpins of the standout Jets defense, faces a familiar opponent in the Patriots this week.
The Jets' off-ball linebacker went over this line in 12 of 16 games last season and in one of two so far this season. However, he’s eclipsed this line in each of his last three matchups against the Patriots, and I’m banking on that trend continuing today.
Mosley’s ability to generate tackles against the Patriots stems from the overall matchup: the Jets have a decisive advantage in the secondary against the Patriots' receivers, which has kept the ball in Mosley’s realm. This has led to New England leaning on the run along with short/intermediate passes to running backs and tight ends – all of which is within Mosley’s territory.
Couple this with some potential game-friendly weather for running the football, and I’m very high on Mosley’s tackle total today. I have the 10th-year pro projected for 10.5 tackles today, and I would play him over 8.5 tackles and assists down to -135.