Week 4 NFL Player Props: Should You Bet on Dak Prescott to Pass for 221 Yards?

Sep 27, 2018 1:16 PM EDT
  • Dak Prescott highlights one of our favorite NFL player props for Week 4.
  • See where the value is on the over/under of 220.5 passing yards for the Dallas Cowboys quarterback.

One NFL player prop bet that caught my attention involves Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott and his passing yard against the Detroit Lions for Week 4.

Let’s dive right in!


>> Check out the FantasyLabs prop tool to see all of the NFL Week 4 prop bets offering value according to our industry-leading projections. All odds referenced here are as of 12 p.m. ET on Thursday.


Dak Prescott Over/Under 220.5 Passing Yards? (-120/-120)

This isn’t that many passing yards, but for someone like Prescott, it is.

Since Prescott entered the league in 2016, he’s thrown for fewer than 220.5 yards in 17 of his 35 regular-season starts. That’s 48.6% of his career games!

Prescott has been one of the least-efficient quarterbacks in the league this season, averaging only 166 passing yards per game with a 5.1 adjusted yards per attempt and a 74.9 NFL passer rating. All three of those marks rank 29th or worse among quarterbacks.

Additionally, the Lions have been gouged on the ground this season, allowing a league-high 448 rushing yards and 5.4 yards per attempt, which already fits into the Cowboys’ plan to the run the ball. Combine that with Dallas’ slow pace of play on offense (28th), and it’s hard to envision Prescott hitting the over unless he gets a few big splash plays.

Sean Koerner, our director of predictive analytics, thinks this line should be closer to 200 yards. And I agree. The FantasyLabs Player Models are powered by Koerner’s projections and he currently has Prescott projected for only 198 passing yards (per the FantasyLabs Trends tool).

Give me the under.

Credit:

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dak Prescott

Follow Justin Bailey on Twitter
@justinbailey32
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