NFL Playoff Picture Rankings: 49ers Now Second-Most Likely Super Bowl Winner

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USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jimmy Garoppolo

Oct 16, 2019, 07:55 PM EDT
  • The 49ers now have the second-best chance to win Super Bowl 54 after beating the Rams in Week 6.
  • After their second-straight loss, the Chiefs are trending the other way. Their probability of winning the Super Bowl has fallen to 6.67%.

The San Francisco 49ers have arrived.

According to our Bet Labs model — which simulates the rest of the season 10,000 times — Jimmy Garoppolo and Co. now have the second-best chance to win the Super Bowl after routing the Los Angeles Rams, 20-7, on the road. Of course that also means our model favors the Niners to win the NFC West.

We’ll dig into every team’s odds to make the playoffs and much more below, but first, here are a couple more key takeaways:

  • With the Kansas City Chiefs losing their second straight game, the New England Patriots now have an 87.81%% to finish as the AFC’s 1-seed. The Chiefs’ chances fell all the way from to 20.69% heading into the week to 3.39%%.
  • The Miami Dolphins failed to convert a potential game-tying two-point attempt in the final seconds of their 17-16 loss to Washington, elevating their chances to land the No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft all the way to 75.31%.

Now let’s take a quick look at the teams that’d be in the playoffs if the season ended today before diving into our 1-32 playoff rankings. You can also sift through every team’s chances to secure specific playoff seeding and much more in the table at the very end of this story.

Note: These simulation results do not include Monday Night Football.


Current NFL Playoff Picture & Standings

AFC Playoff Picture & Standings

1. New England Patriots 6-0
2. Houston Texans 4-2
3. Kansas City Chiefs 4-2
4. Baltimore Ravens 4-2
5. Buffalo Bills 4-1
6. Oakland Raiders 3-2

NFC Playoff Picture & Standings

1. San Francisco 49ers 5-0
2. New Orleans Saints 5-1
3. Green Bay Packers 4-1
4. Philadelphia Eagles 3-3
5. Seattle Seahawks 5-1
6. Minnesota Vikings 4-2


2019 NFL Playoff Rankings & Projections

1. New England Patriots

  • Chance to make playoffs: 99.95%
  • Chance to win division: 98.29%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 39.45%

2. San Francisco 49ers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 88.07%
  • Chance to win division: 65.86%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 11.08%

3. Kansas City Chiefs

  • Chance to make playoffs: 83.97%
  • Chance to win division: 77.48%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 6.67%

4. Houston Texans

  • Chance to make playoffs: 82.48%
  • Chance to win division: 62.73%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 3.75%

5. New Orleans Saints

  • Chance to make playoffs: 82.15%
  • Chance to win division: 71.19%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 8.67%

6. Baltimore Ravens

  • Chance to make playoffs: 79.46%
  • Chance to win division: 71.07%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 3.88%

7. Green Bay Packers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 70.85%
  • Chance to win division: 53.13%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 5.68%

8. Buffalo Bills

  • Chance to make playoffs: 70.64%
  • Chance to win division: 1.71%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.39%

9. Seattle Seahawks

  • Chance to make playoffs: 63.01%
  • Chance to win division: 28.41%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 3.76%

10. Philadelphia Eagles

  • Chance to make playoffs: 59.87%
  • Chance to win division: 56.36%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 3.26%

11. Indianapolis Colts

  • Chance to make playoffs: 57.03%
  • Chance to win division: 30.93%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.98%

12. Minnesota Vikings

  • Chance to make playoffs: 47.91%
  • Chance to win division: 21.44%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 2.82%

13. Carolina Panthers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 45.25%
  • Chance to win division: 26.36%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 2.23%

14. Dallas Cowboys

  • Chance to make playoffs: 39.61%
  • Chance to win division: 36.54%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.47%

15. Chicago Bears

  • Chance to make playoffs: 37.38%
  • Chance to win division: 16.88%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 2.12%

16. Los Angeles Rams

  • Chance to make playoffs: 32.05%
  • Chance to win division: 5.39%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 1.75%

17. Cleveland Browns

  • Chance to make playoffs: 28.45%
  • Chance to win division: 16.87%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.46%

18. Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 25.55%
  • Chance to win division: 11.78%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.36%

19. Oakland Raiders

  • Chance to make playoffs: 20.11%
  • Chance to win division: 7.65%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.08%

20. Los Angeles Chargers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 18.92%
  • Chance to win division: 9.83%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.37%

21. Detroit Lions

  • Chance to make playoffs: 17.97%
  • Chance to win division: 8.55%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.28%

22. Denver Broncos

  • Chance to make playoffs: 10.72%
  • Chance to win division: 5.04%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.09%

23. Tennessee Titans

  • Chance to make playoffs: 10.15%
  • Chance to win division: 3.47%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.09%

24. Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Chance to make playoffs: 9.21%
  • Chance to win division: 2.87%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.03%

25. New York Giants

  • Chance to make playoffs: 7.99%
  • Chance to win division: 6.86%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.15%

26. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Chance to make playoffs: 4.82%
  • Chance to win division: 1.72%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.11%

27. New York Jets

  • Chance to make playoffs: 2.78%
  • Chance to win division: 0.00%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

28. Arizona Cardinals

  • Chance to make playoffs: 1.55%
  • Chance to win division: 0.34%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

29. Atlanta Falcons

  • Chance to make playoffs: 1.22%
  • Chance to win division: 0.73%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.01%

30. Cincinnati Bengals

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.58%
  • Chance to win division: 0.28%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.01%

31. Washington Redskins

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.30%
  • Chance to win division: 0.24%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

32. Miami Dolphins

  • Chance to make playoffs: 0.00%
  • Chance to win division: 0.00%
  • Chance to win Super Bowl: 0.00%

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