NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action Network’s Predictive Analytics team — are out for Week 3 of the 2025 season.
These NFL rankings are designed to help you identify which teams’ results have been luckier — or unluckier — than their on-field performance indicates.
For more on how the Luck Rankings work, check out this detailed concept overview. You can also check out our season primer to understand how to use it to bet on the NFL.
When there is a large difference in luck between two teams, there has been proven success in betting on the unlucky team.
When the Luck Score in a game is 1.454 or higher, unlucky teams are 145-102-7 against the closing spread — the hardest line to beat. That equates to a 58.7% cover rate when pushes are removed over a sample size greater than 240 games!
In Week 2, the unlucky team in these games went 2-3 ATS, but still covered by an average of 3.5 points thanks to two blowout covers, two close cover losses, and one blowout cover loss. By Expected Score, these teams would have gone 3-2 ATS, but unfortunately for bettors tailing the Luck Rankings plays, there was no such … luck.
Luck Totals also kick in this week. Here's a refresher of the new Luck Total criteria:
For Luck Totals, the new criteria is as follows:
- Luck Overs: Luck Total of +1.5 or above
- Luck Unders: Luck Total of -1 or below
However, there are even stronger thresholds for Luck Totals, which we'll call "strong" Luck Overs or Unders:
- Strong Luck Overs: Luck Total of +2.0 or above
- Strong Luck Unders: Luck Total of -1.8 or below
Here's how our NFL Luck Rankings shake out for Week 3, and be sure to check back on Wednesday, when our Predictive Analyst, Dr. Nick Giffen, breaks down Week 3 luck-based games.
NFL Week 3 Luck Rankings
Note: Luck % represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage. Lucky teams may regress and could be overvalued by betting markets.
