I'm targeting four NFL picks on Sunday of Week 16, including predictions for Chiefs vs Titans, Vikings vs Giants, and Buccaneers vs Panthers, and more.
Continue below for my expert NFL picks and analysis for the 16th Sunday of the season.
Let's get this shmoney with my NFL predictions!
NFL Week 16 Predictions & Spread Picks
  |   |   |   |
Chiefs vs Titans
The Chiefs offense is completely decimated.
The biggest loss, of course, is Patrick Mahomes (ACL), who will be replaced by Gardner Minshew, who promptly imploded with the Chiefs in game-tying field goal range last week, going incompletion-delay of game-interception on his final three snaps.
In addition to Mahomes, the offense is also missing starting left tackle Josh Simmons (IR-wrist), starting right tackle Jawaan Taylor (elbow), and both of its backup tackles, Wayna Morris (IR-knee) and Jaylon Moore (knee).
That’s not all: Kansas City is also without its No. 1 wide receiver, Rashee Rice (concussion) and top deep threat, Tyquan Thornton (concussion).
Among Chiefs pass-catchers that have run at least 70 routes, Rice (2.15) and Thornton (1.70) are the leaders in yards per route run.
The Chiefs haven’t been able to take advantage of their one remaining strength, the interior offensive line, as Chiefs' backs have averaged 3.68 yards per carry this season (30th). Not to mention, the interior line will have its hands full with All-Pro defensive tackle Jeffrey Simmons.
Defensively, the Chiefs will be without No. 1 cornerback Trent McDuffie (knee) and defensive tackle Derek Nnadi (illness).
The Titans are coming off a two-game stretch in which they posted their highest point total of the season (31) in Week 14 against the Browns’ fourth-ranked defense in DVOA, and their most offensive EPA of the season (13.37) in Week 15 against the 49ers.
With the Chiefs being in uncharted territory after being eliminated from postseason contention, and with most of their most talented players/leaders being held out, effort level is a major question mark for the Chiefs, who would probably be underdogs if not for reputation.
Per our Action Labs data, ‘dogs since 2005 in Weeks 15-16 with a straight-up winning percentage below 22% like the Titans (2-12, 14.3%) are 59-43-3 (58%) ATS.
Pick: Titans +3
| | | |
Vikings vs Giants
Both defenses blitz at a top-10 rate, but Jaxson Dart has been much better against the blitz than J.J. McCarthy.
Dart averages 0.048 EPA/DB against the blitz with 8 TDs to 3 INTs. McCarthy averages -0.437 EPA/DB with 1 TD to 5 INTs.
Among 40 qualified passers, McCarthy’s -24.90 total EPA versus the blitz ranks third-worst.
Picking up the blitz will be that much harder for the Vikings with left tackle Christian Darrisaw (knee) being placed on IR this week.
The Vikings are also dealing with significant injuries on the defensive side of the ball. Edge rusher Jonathan Greenard (shoulder) and safety Josh Metellus (shoulder) were both placed on IR this week, and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave (thigh) has been ruled out.
Per our Action Labs data, ‘dogs since 2005 in Weeks 15-16 with a straight-up winning percentage below 22% like the Giants (2-12, 14.3%) are 59-43-3 (58%) ATS.
Pick: Giants +2.5
| | | |
Bills vs Browns
The forecast calls for 27-degree temperatures with 15-mph winds. Per our Action Labs data, when temps are freezing or below since 2015, the under is 78-51-1 (60%), including 8-5 (62%) this season.
The Browns are already the No. 32 offense in terms of DVOA starting its third-string quarterback. Matters are made worse by the absences of starting center Etan Pocic (IR-Achilles) and starting right tackle Jack Conklin (IR-concussion).
The Browns will also be missing their top red-zone weapon, TE David Njoku (knee), and their top two receiving backs, Dylan Sampson (knee) and Jerome Ford (IR-shoulder).
Cleveland scored three points last week against a Bears defense that ranks 22nd in DVOA, one spot ahead of Buffalo, so this total could hit even if the Bills put up a big number.
But a Browns defense that ranks fourth in DVOA and allows 8.6 fewer points per game at home (18.8) than on the road (27.6) has a better chance than most of slowing down the Bills.
Buffalo will also be down to its third kicker after losing Tyler Bass (IR-hip) before the season and ruling out Matt Prater (quad) earlier this week.
Pick: Under 41.5
| | | |
Buccaneers vs Panthers
Evans has scored in 55% of career games with Baker Mayfield at QB.
In his return last week, Evans posted a 6-132 line but failed to find the end zone.
Despite the presence of top cornerback Jaycee Horn, the Panthers rank 30th in DVOA against WR1s because they play a high rate of zone coverage (77.7%, fourth-most). They also play a high rate of single-high (52.5%, 13th), which means Horn doesn’t always get safety help over the top.
Over their past five games, the Panthers have given up scores to Chris Olave, Davante Adams (2), Jauan Jennings, and Olave (again).
Pick: Mike Evans Anytime Touchdown (+160)
| | | |
