Our staff is focused on six of Sunday's biggest games for our NFL predictions in Week 3 on September 21.
First, we'll focus on the NFC South clash between the Panthers and Falcons. We have a moneyline pick for an AFC battle between the Colts and Broncos. Plus, we have an over/under prediction for Vikings vs. Bengals, and more.
Let's dive into our experts' NFL picks and predictions for the Week 3 Sunday slate.
NFL Predictions, Week 3 Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 4:05 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Falcons vs Panthers Spread Prediction
The Falcons' defense has undoubtedly shown improvements in comparison to their 2024 performance, but too much weight is being put on their island game victory over the Vikings and their 30th-ranked offense according to DVOA.
The Panthers have played very poorly in the first half of each of their first two games, but I am expecting a much better showing in their home opener this week.
The Panthers are due for some positive regression. No team will continue to turn the ball over at a rate of 25% of their possessions like the Panthers have through their first two games.
Carolina should also match up well with both Drake London and Darnell Mooney. The Panthers have allowed a combined 94 total yards to perimeter receivers this year, ranking top five in the NFL.
Winless underdogs of greater than 3 points in Week 3 have generally been a very good investment. Taking the points with these underdogs over the last decade has resulted in a 70.4% cover rate when the total is 45 or less (19-8 ATS).
Dating back to 2015, we’ve seen this exact spot arise 10 times in divisional matchups. The underdog is 9-1 against the spread in those contests.
Pick: Panthers +5.5 (-110)
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Packers vs Browns ATS Best Bet
I'm grabbing this at a key number before it moves up. Several books are already at -8 or higher, but bet365 has the alternate spread of Packers -7 listed at -120.
Through the first two weeks of the season, the Packers have easily dispatched a pair of 2024 playoff teams. Detroit (1st) and Washington (5th) both ranked top-5 in scoring last season.
The Packers held them without a touchdown through three quarters in each game.
The Lions and Commanders scored some touchdowns late in those games, but they were basically in garbage time.
The Packers unsurprisingly lead the league in DVOA through two weeks.
The offense hasn't been asked to do much, though they've been efficient so far. The Packers rank fourth in EPA/play and sixth in success rate.
Cleveland hung with a lackluster Cincinnati team in Week 1 before getting obliterated in Week 2 by Baltimore. They're 30th in EPA/play.
Joe Flacco leads the league in pass attempts, but all the chucking has only resulted in 244.5 pass yards per game to go along with two touchdowns and three interceptions.
We could see Dillon Gabriel sooner than later for the Browns.
Pick: Packers -7 (-120)
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Colts vs Titans Moneyline Best Bet
By Brit Devine
I have no idea what games the books are watching, but these teams are so far apart in talent and production that I have no idea why this number is so far off from what I would make it.
This might be a silly way to look at the differences, but the Titans have punted the ball a league-high 13 times.
The Colts have yet to punt the ball through two games. The Colts lead the league in yards per play on offense, while the Titans are dead last by a wide margin.
Even with just two weeks played, these discrepancies are more than enough for me take the Colts.
I am betting the moneyline, but if you want to take the spread or use the Packers moneyline in a parlay to bring the juice down, feel free, as those would be two other ways to play it.
Pick: Colts ML (-200)
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Bengals vs Vikings Over/Under Pick
Both the Vikings and Bengals will pivot to new starting quarterbacks this week in what I project as a low-scoring affair. Both offensive lines are a major concern heading into this matchup on Sunday.
The Bengals are 31st in yards per play offensively through two weeks. Their offensive line allows pressure too often and they rank 31st in adjusted line yards per rush.
We have seen Jake Browning in extended action back in 2023, so we know what the game plan will be.
No quarterback in football threw the ball at or behind the line of scrimmage more than Browning did during that span two years ago, with nearly one-third of all his passes fitting into that category.
JJ McCarthy has been pressured on more than 40% of his dropbacks, but that number increased even higher, to 55%, when center Ryan Kelly and tackle Justin Skule exited the game last week.
Both are expected to miss this week's game, which means Carson Wentz will have to get the ball out of his hands very quickly or the Vikings are simply going to have to go very run-heavy.
Both of these offenses struggle on first and second down, which is why they face 3rd down at two of the five highest rates in the league.
I do not expect Browning and Wentz to move the chains often on those key third downs behind struggling offensive lines.
This is my favorite total of the week.
Pick: Under 41.5 (-110)
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Broncos vs Chargers ATS Best Bet
By Bet Labs
Our system titled "Great Condition Divisional Road 'Dogs" works on the belief that divisional underdogs traveling in good weather early in the season tend to carry hidden value, which appears to be the situation for the Broncos in this week's matchup against the Chargers.
In the NFL, division games are often tighter and more unpredictable because of familiarity and rivalry factors, which narrows the talent gap.
When the visiting team is the underdog in September, October, or November, conditions are generally stable with limited wind allowing both teams to execute their normal game plans without weather being a major factor.
In these spots, the public often overvalues the home side, yet divisional familiarity and the motivational boost of playing a rival tends to make the road 'dog more competitive than the line projects.
Pick: Broncos +3 (-115)
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Saints vs Seahawks Spread Prediction
By Bet Labs
Our system titled "Small Bad Away 'Dogs" captures how teams that were poor in the previous season, but enter the new year as underdogs on the road, often exceed expectations when the spread is modest.
Teams with few wins from the prior year are usually overlooked by both oddsmakers and bettors. Yet, these squads can make meaningful improvements with roster changes, draft additions, or coaching adjustments, which may be the case for the Saints entering this week's matchup against the Seahawks.
Being priced as small underdogs rather than large ones suggests the market already sees potential, but not enough to account for the motivational edge and element of surprise that these teams often bring.
The regular season creates profitable windows, when effort is high and opportunities to reset a narrative are strongest, where small underdogs with bad histories prove to be undervalued and capable of covering spreads consistently.
Pick: Saints +7.5 (-110)
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