NFL Week 13 wraps up with the New York Giants and New England Patriots on Monday Night Football.
The Giants enter MNF with a 2-10 record and a six-game losing streak — though they've been competitive in their last three defeats. The Patriots, meanwhile, are the opposite, streaking with a nine-game winning streak and 10-2 record.
- For more Monday Night Football coverage, check out Chris Raybon's Giants vs Patriots preview, which includes his spread pick for MNF.
Tonight, I'm targeting Giants LB Abdul Carter in the prop market as I believe there's an edge on his sacks prop. Find my over/under prop bet for Carter below.
NFL Prop Bet: Abdul Carter Over/Under Prediction
I’ve mentioned a few times in the last month that Giants rookie Abdul Carter is playing much better than his 0.5 sacks would indicate.
The 42 pressures he's generated have him tied for 15th, but the 24 quick pressures (under 2.5 seconds) rank 4th. Quick pressures are the most predictive sack metric, and he’s been elite there.
It’s wild Carter only has 0.5 sacks. He had a clean sack wiped on a penalty away from the play a few weeks ago, plus a near sack on Jared Goff, and another spot where a split-sack chance went to Brian Burns instead of Carter (Burns already has 13 sacks). A bit of luck flips a lot of those.
My expected sacks model puts Carter closer to 5.1 expected vs. 0.5 actual, a signal he’s due for more sacks. If you look at the other nine players who rank top 10 in quick pressures on the season, they are averaging 8.33 sacks on the season each!
Tonight, Carter faces Patriots QB Drake Maye, who has been sacked 37 times (3rd most), behind an offensive line missing LT Will Campbell (on IR) and LG Jared Wilson. That context gives Carter his best shot to get on the board here with a sack or two.
I have this closer to a coin flip for Carter to get 0.5+ sacks, so +158 is offering quite a bit of value and another ideal time to buy low on the rookie who is on the verge of a true breakout.
Pick: Abdul Carter to Record a Sack (+158; FanDuel)
