Best Browns-Jets MNF Prop Bets: What to Expect for Jamison Crowder, More
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jamison Crowder
- Monday Night Football features a showdown between the Cleveland Browns and the New York Jets (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN).
- Here's how to bet prop bets for Jets TE Ryan Griffin, Browns WR Jarvis Landry and Jets WR Jamison Crowder.
NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Props tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge. Note that unders have typically done the best in our tool, and last season those bets were profitable even with grades below 10:
- Unders with Bet Quality of 10: 152-57 (72.7% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 9: 183-123 (59.8% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 8: 413-256 (61.7% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 7: 627-474 (57.0% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 6: 1,005-697 (59.1% win rate)
Overall, unders in our tool hit at a 59.0% rate in 2018. Don’t take our word for it, though: Our props tool keeps track of its record at all times, so you can query performance of any time frame.
Let’s take a look at three props with a Bet Quality of seven or better for the Monday Night Football contest between the Cleveland Browns and the New York Jets.
Jets TE Ryan Griffin
THE PICK: Over 17.5 receiving yards (-134)
Griffin was a huge factor for the Jets in Week 1, and that doesn’t figure to change as long as Chris Herndon is out of the lineup. Griffin managed just 10 yards in that contest, but he was on the field for 94.4% of the offensive snaps and saw four targets.
He has a solid matchup vs. the Browns, who rank 20th in Football Outsiders’ pass defense DVOA after Week 1. They were shredded in particular by TE Delanie Walker, who tallied five catches for 55 yards and two TDs.
Griffin could also see a slight boost in value with Sam Darnold out of the lineup. Trevor Siemian will draw the start at QB, and he has historically been at his best when targeting the short and intermediate parts of the field.
This line seems too low considering the sheer volume of snaps Griffin will likely play this week. I’d play the over up to -150.
Browns WR Jarvis Landry
THE PICK: Under 4.5 receptions (+110)
The Browns made a big addition in the offseason by bringing in Odell Beckham Jr., which figures to put a big dent in Landry’s numbers.
Landry averaged 9.3 targets per game in 2018, but that dropped to just seven in Week 1 vs. the Titans. Landry posted a catch rate of just 54.4% with the Browns last season, so he’s either going to have to improve on that or see a larger role than expected to hit the over on his current number.
Landry is a solid receiver, but there are only so many targets to go around in Cleveland.
I’ll roll the dice on this prop at better than even money, but it stops looking like a value around +100.
Jets WR Jamison Crowder
THE PICK: Under 5.5 receptions (-115)
Crowder was nothing short of outstanding for the Jets in Week 1. He led the entire NFL with 17 targets, and he converted those targets into 14 receptions for 99 yards.
With that in mind, this seems like a nice opportunity to sell high on him. For starters, he won’t be playing with the same QB this week, and it’s unknown if Siemian will lean on Crowder nearly as much as Darnold did.
Crowder also really isn’t the type of talent that you figure to see among the reception leaders on a weekly basis. He’s managed six or more catches in just 14-of-57 (24.6%) career contests, so it’s very possible that his Week 1 performance winds up being his best game of the season.
I would be hesitant to bet the under if Darnold was playing, but the uncertainty with Siemian makes this investable. I’m willing to play the under up to -120.