Week 5 NFL DraftKings Player Prop Bets: Jacoby Brissett Rushing Yards, More
Photo credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jacoby Brissett
- Matthew Freedman picks out the three best Week 5 NFL prop best that are posted on DraftKings.
- See how he's betting Jacoby Brissett's rushing yards, Tom Brady's passing touchdowns and Mike Evans' receiving yards.
DraftKings is consistently one of the first sportsbooks to post NFL player props each week, releasing lines on Friday afternoon for the slate of Sunday games.
Lines for the Week 5 games have just been posted, and since the prop market moves quickly, I’m highlighting some bets I’m making immediately.
This season, I’m 124-80-2 (+25.1) on NFL player props. I’ll also highlight how our FantasyLabs Props Tool grades all three props below.
Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $200.
Jacoby Brissett 20.5 Rushing Yards
- Over 20.5: -109
- Under 20.5: -114
Brissett was more of a running quarterback in the 2016-17 seasons, but in head coach Frank Reich’s system, Brissett has been less likely to scramble out of the pocket.
He has just 14.3 yards per game this year and has gone over 20.5 just once.
While the Chiefs have allowed 22 rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, that number is skewed by the 46-yard rushing game they allowed to Lamar Jackson in Week 3.
Other than that, they’ve held every opposing passer to fewer than 20.5 rushing yards.
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Brissett projected for 14.1 rushing yards.
Pick: Under 20.5 (-114)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10 (out of 10)
Tom Brady 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
- Over 1.5: -182
- Under 1.5: +145
I like this prop probably way more than I should.
Brady has multiple touchdown passes in each game this year except for last week, when he faced a tough Bills pass defense on the road.
This is a perfect bounceback spot for him: The Redskins defense is No. 29 in Football Outsiders’ pass DVOA.
And the Redskins have allowed multiple touchdown passes to opposing quarterbacks in every game except last week, when rookie Daniel Jones showed his inexperience by missing a couple of throws that could have gone for scores.
Because of what happened in Week 4 for Brady and also the Redskins, I think this line offers some “recency bias value.”
As big favorites, the Pats could have a run-heavy game script, so Brady could lose some red-zone opportunities to his running backs. But if the Pats are regularly getting into the red zone, he should still have enough opportunities to put a couple of passes into the end zone.
Over the past 10 years, Brady has averaged 2.33 touchdown passes per game when favored by at least 14 points (per the RotoViz Game Splits App).
In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Brady projected for 2.1 passing touchdowns.
Pick: Over 1.5 (-182)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10
Mike Evans 90.5 Receiving Yards
- Over 90.5: -112
- Under 90.5: -112
I like Evans, but 90.5 is a really high number. I have to bet the under as a matter of principle.
He’s gone over 90.5 in just one game this year. For his career, he’s gone over that number in just 29 of 81 games (35.8%).
Evans has a great matchup against cornerback Marshon Lattimore, who has allowed league-worst marks with 24 receptions and 380 yards receiving.
Last year, Evans balled out in his two divisional matchups against the Saints.
- Week 1 (2018, at NO): 7-147-1 receiving on seven targets
- Week 14 (2018, at TB): 4-86-0 receiving on six targets
But as happened in Week 14 last year, Evans could have a strong game and still not hit the over.
A big problem for Evans is that he has to compete for targets with Chris Godwin, who actually might have the superior matchup: Cornerback P.J. Williams has allowed a 71.6% catch rate since moving to the slot last year.
The Saints have allowed three receivers to go over 90.5 yards this year: Two of them (Cooper Kupp and Tyler Lockett) are slot receivers.
If a Bucs receiver has a big yardage game against the Saints, it’s just as likely to be Godwin as Evans.
Pick: Under 90.5 (-112)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 9
To see the rest of the player props I’m betting for Week 5, follow me in The Action Network App. I will continue to fill out my prop card throughout the weekend.