NFL Prop Bets: The Top Pick For Bills vs. Titans On Tuesday Night

NFL Prop Bets: The Top Pick For Bills vs. Titans On Tuesday Night article feature image
Credit:

Rob Carr/Getty Images. Pictured: Jonnu Smith

Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, is highlighting his favorite prop(s) for every slate throughout the 2020 season — he’s 46-27 (63%) so far and has a 250-175-5 (58.8%) all-time record on NFL bets he’s tracked in the Action app.

Find his pick for Tuesday night’s showdown between the Bills and Titans below. And if you’re looking for more action, his projections also power the FantasyLabs NFL Player Prop Tool, which grades every prop.


NFL Prop Bet: Bills vs. Titans

  • The Pick: Jonnu Smith Under 5.5 Rec (+100)
  • Bet Now: FanDuel

The Titans have been dealing with a COVID-19 outbreak over the past couple weeks, resulting in more than 20 players and staff testing positive.

Wide receivers Corey Davis, Adam Humphries and Cam Batson have all been ruled out along with tight end MyCole Pruitt, though A.J. Brown is officially active. And while Brown may not be 100% over his knee injury quite yet, I still expect Smith to be Ryan Tannehill’s top target on Tuesday night — that means the Bills defense may game plan to prevent Tannehill from peppering Smith with targets, forcing other pass-catchers to step up.

We could see players like WRs Kalif Raymond and Nick Westbrook as well as TE Anthony Firkser take on more prominent roles in the passing game tonight. The Titans could also lean on Derrick Henry even more than usual.

The Titans have shown they’re willing to find creative ways to get the ball in Jonnu’s hands, giving him four direct carries last season. I can see them drawing up a play or two like that on Tuesday night, which would only help this under hit.

Smith has seen a target on 29% of his routes run this season, a rate that I would expect to be closer to 25% on Tuesday night. I’m projecting him to see 6-8 targets tonight, and at around a 68% catch rate, that comes out to 4.9 projected receptions in my model.

I simulated the game 10,000 times and to calculate the chances of Smith going over or under each reception:

Rec
Over
Under
0.5
99.3%
0.7%
1.5
95.6%
4.4%
2.5
86.7%
13.3%
3.5
72.1%
27.9%
4.5
54.2%
45.8%
5.5
36.6%
63.4%
6.5
22.3%
77.7%
7.5
12.3%
87.7%

You can see just how valuable each reception is in a market like this one. If you only have access to 4.5 and not 5.5, I would only consider betting the under with at least +130 juice.

I think the most likely outcome tonight will be 5 receptions (17.5% chance), so it’s key to get access to the under 5.5 if you can. I would bet it down to -140.

[Bet Jonnu Smith’s prop at FanDuel completely risk-free for $1,000]

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