NFL Week 18 gets going with the Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Saturday afternoon, followed by the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers in the nightcap.
- For more coverage on this NFC South Divisional Title duel, check out our Panthers vs Bucs preview and best bets, which include six picks.
Tonight, I'm targeting Bucs LB SirVocea Dennis and Panthers WR Jalen Coker in the prop market for Panthers vs Buccanneers. Find my over/under prop bets for both Dennis and Coker below — and check back later for my picks for Seahawks vs 49ers.
NFL Prop Bet: SirVocea Dennis Over/Under Prediction
SirVocea Dennis mixes in on a ton of run plays as he’s recorded a tackle on 17.3% of opponent rush attempts this season.
So he should specifically get a boost with Tampa Bay expected to face around 3.6 more rush attempts in this game.
He may a bit of a liability in pass coverage, so teams tend to pick on him there as well, but that gives him a very high floor in this spot.
Obviously, I like his over at 5.5 tackles and assists at -149 odds, and I could play it safe to keep my win streak of now 12 straight bets going.
But I’m going to be more aggressive here and take his alt over of 7+ tackles at +126 since I’m projecting him to clear this around 57% of the time.
Pick: SirVocea Dennis Over 6.5 Tackles + Assists (+126)
Jalen Coker Receiving Yards Over/Under Prediction
Tampa Bay has generated the 3rd highest pressure rate, and Panthers WR Jalen Coker has seen his target rate drop from 18% when Bryce Young has a clean pocket to just 10% when he’s under pressure.
Buccaneers safety Jamel Dean is out for today’s game, which improves Tetairoa McMillan’s matchup and could funnel more targets his way.
We’ve also seen WR4 Jimmy Horn Jr. start to see an increase in playing time, at the expense of Xavier Legette, and Horn has been commanding a higher target rate than Legette, so his mini-emergence could chip away at Coker’s usage.
This is something to keep an eye on any time Horn is targeted today.
On top of that, Coker is due for some Catch% regression as he’s hauled in 75% of his targets, which is 13.3% higher than his expected catch rate.
All of this adds up to me being slightly lower on him here, with a median closer to 31 receiving yards and around a 59% chance to stay under 36.5.
