NFL Super Bowl Odds: The Biggest Movers After Week 6

We are officially through one-third of the NFL season already, which is a good amount of time to see how Super Bowl odds markets are shifting. Looking at the ebbs and flows of the market on a week-to-week basis is important, but the swings from one performance on any given week can sometimes be misleading.

Instead of looking back at one week, we're taking a look at how these odds have shifted since Week 1 to see which teams have made the most gains and which teams have fallen furthest on the board.

NFL Super Bowl Odds

The 49ers are the current favorites to win Super Bowl 58 at +450, with the Chiefs close behind at +500.

Odds as of Tuesday, Oct. 17. Check out our exclusive new user offers that can be used for Super Bowl futures, redeemable with Action’s BetMGM Promo Code.

The Early Contenders

The San Francisco 49ers are the favorites to win the Super Bowl at the moment, so we'll start at the top. The Niners opened the season fourth on the board — they are now in a five-way tie for the best record in the league and own the best point differential (+97) in the NFL. They have seen the sixth-biggest jump in their odds since Week 1.

The Miami Dolphins are another rising team that looks to be a potential contender. The Fins were tied for the 10th-shortest odds entering the season and have risen to fifth on the board after an impressive start that includes a historic 70-point blowout in Week 3. Their odds jump through six weeks is the third-largest in the league.

The Lions, who are tied with the 49ers and Dolphins at 5-1, are the third team that looks to be much more legit compared to preseason projections. They entered the season ninth on the board and after six weeks have jumped to seventh, which represents the fourth-biggest jump in odds. Their offense has been the driving force thus far, ranking fourth in Offensive DVOA after Week 6.

Teams Making Waves … and Ripples

The Jacksonville Jaguars have seen a significant jump after a promising start. They moved from +3000 to +2200 through six weeks and have the best record in the AFC South despite their loss against the Houston Texans. Through this point in the season, their odds have seen the fifth-largest jump in the league.

There must be something in the water in Florida. The Buccaneers, despite their loss to the Lions Sunday, have seen the second-biggest jump in odds since Week 1. They opened the season with +10000 odds to win the Super Bowl and are down to +8000 thanks to the surprisingly steady play from quarterback Baker Mayfield. The Bucs have the best record in the NFC South, but at 80-1, they aren't exactly in the same tier as other teams listed. Still, oddsmakers have taken notice of their impressive start.

(The Texans get an honorable mention here. They have made the biggest jump from Week 1 to Week 6 going from +20000 to +12500.)

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Don't Get Too High, or Low

This group of teams exemplifies why looking at odds movement over a large sample size is more helpful than the week-to-week. Top contenders like the Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles and Buffalo Bills have all moved very little if you compare their Week 1 odds and their current odds.

The Chiefs were +600 to start and sit at +500 today. The Eagles were +800 ahead of Week 1 and are +750 today. The Bills are a different story, though. Their odds are exactly the same today as they were entering Week 1, but it has been a rollercoaster thus far.

Bills Odds Movement

• Week 1: +900
• Week 2: +1000
• Week 3: +1000
• Week 4: +900
• Week 5: +700
• Week 6: +850
• Today: +900

The Dallas Cowboys are another rollercoaster team. They entered Week 1 at +1500 fell as low as +800 in Week 3 then dropped back to +1400 last week. Today, they are up to +1000.

In the words of Dennis Green, these teams are who the books thought they were.

Falling Fast

Just as there have been positive surprises, there have been negative ones, too.

At the top of that list are the Cincinnati Bengals. When Super Bowl odds first opened, the Bengals had the second-best odds on the board. Even after Joe Burrow's injury in the preseason, the Bengals entered Week 1 at +1100. After a slow start, the Bengals have dropped to +2200, which places them ninth on the board.

The Vikings are another disappointing team in this respect. They entered Week 1 with +4000 odds, but are 2-4 this season after finishing with 13 wins in 2022. As of this writing, the Vikings have dipped to +8000.

The New York Jets are arguably the most unlucky team of this bunch. Aaron Rodgers went down with an Achilles injury in the first game of the season and the Jets immediately fell from +1800 to +5000. At their lowest, the Jets were +15000, but have since jumped back to +6600 after Week 6.

The True Disappointments

This tier is reserved for the bottom of the league. The Denver Broncos, Chicago Bears, New York Giants and New England Patriots have four wins combined. The Broncos had the best odds of the four in Week 1 at +4500 and are now +75000. The Bears, who got plenty of hype before the season started, fell from +6000 to +75000. The Pats and Giants were +6600 entering the season and are +30000 and +50000, respectively.

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