Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Colts wide receiver Chester Rogers (80), quarterback Andrew Luck (12) and offensive guard Braden Smith (72)
- The Los Angeles Rams, Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs and Atlanta Falcons are popular Week 7 NFL survivor-pool picks.
- Using Bet Labs' NFL simulations, we analyzed Week 7 to determine the best survivor-pool pick.
Week 6 in the NFL didn’t see a major upset to take out a lot of survivor-pool entries, but I was able to sneak by with the Texans after Nathan Peterman threw a touchdown pass to the wrong team yet again.
I was rooting for the 49ers upset as I avoided the popular Packers pick, but Aaron Rodgers carved up the defense late in the fourth quarter to set up the winning field goal.
Either way, I’m pleased with the result because I think the Vikings and Packers will have better value than the Texans will as the season progresses. I’m legitimately worried about how long Deshaun Watson can last behind that offensive line.
Let’s take a look at the games for Week 7 and beyond.
Only three teams have a win percentage above 70% this week, so I snuck in the Falcons and Eagles, who just missed the cut. As more byes approach, it’s important to map out at least the next few weeks.
Here are the key numbers to know for your survivor pool this week:
The Rams have the best chance to win this week. Personally, I used my Rams shares in Week 2 at home against Arizona.
That was projected to be their easiest game of the season, but we didn’t know that the Rams would be this good or that Jimmy Garoppolo would go down with a knee injury, giving LA four remaining games as good options.
The Colts appear to be the tricky selection. By the model’s numbers, they are the 25th-best team in the league, which doesn’t exactly inspire confidence.
Fortunately for Indianapolis, it is playing the 32nd-best team in the league. Derek Anderson is a wild card for sure, but the betting market and the model see the Colts as favorites of more than a touchdown, so they have to be considered.
The Chiefs have their second prime-time game in a row and are decent favorites to knock off the Bengals. Looking ahead, the Chiefs look like the ideal pick in Week 10 at home against the Cardinals, so I am looking to save them.
The Falcons are better than their record indicates and are playing a Giants team that is a mess offensively. But if one thing could get this Giants team scoring points again it’s Atlanta’s defense.
The model still really likes the Eagles as Carson Wentz gets back into the swing of things, but they still have better options down the road as well.
One team that is getting some consideration from survivor-pool players is the Chargers. The model disagrees, making them only 62% favorites.
The Titans looked terrible last week, but a neutral-field game in London isn’t the spot to take the Bolts, especially when they are currently the best option in Week 11 when six teams are on byes.
The Pick: Indianapolis Colts
Is this worrisome? Yeah, of course it is. Whenever you take a really bad team to get a win you can envision exactly how it would lose. But the numbers give the Colts a great chance to win and they have absolutely zero future value.
If you have only a few entries remaining in your pool and have the Rams available, I can see using them now because two of their remaining games with a high projected win percentage are the last two games of the season.
If you have special circumstances or questions about your specific survivor pool, hit me up on Twitter @BetLabsTravis.