Freedman’s NFL Week 10 Trends & Early Bets: Rodgers at Lambeau is Easy Pick
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers.
Week 9: We hardly knew you. Let’s take a look at some applicable trends for the early Week 10 spreads.
Although I am not a trends bettor, I find that trends help me identify spots I should consider further when analyzing games. Using our Bet Labs database, I have uncovered some intriguing NFL trends for three games this week.
All lines are from our NFL Odds page.
Early Week 10 NFL Picks
Click on a pick to skip to that analysis.
|Packers -13 vs. Jaguars||DraftKings|
|Washington (off the board) at Lions||FanDuel|
|Seahawks +1.5 at Rams||William Hill|
Packers (-13.5) vs. Jaguars
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday | TV: FOX
In only one year — ONE! — has Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers had a losing record against the spread (ATS) at home in the regular season.
That was 2008, his first season as a starter.
Ever since then, Rodgers at Lambeau Field has been no worse than .500 ATS in any season. For his career, Rodgers is an A-graded 55-31-3 ATS at home, good for a 24.4% return on investment (ROI).
In general, you don’t need much of a reason to back Rodgers in Green Bay.
But if you need a little something extra, here it is: Rodgers is one of the league’s best quarterbacks with additional time to prepare. In his 10 career games with 10 days off (Thursday to Sunday), Rodgers is 6-3-1 ATS (27.1% ROI).
As for the Jaguars, opponents have been profitable against them each year of the post-hype era following their 2017 near-Super Bowl run.
- 2018 (16 games): 9-5-2 ATS | 22.6% ROI
- 2019 (16 games): 9-7 ATS | 9.3% ROI
- 2020 (seven games): 5-3 ATS | 23.1% ROI
In total, opposing teams are 23-15-2 ATS (17.4% ROI) against head coach Doug Marrone’s Jags since 2018.
- Action: Packers -13.5 (-110) at DraftKings
- Limit: -16.5 (-110)
Washington (Off the Board) at Lions
Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET on Sunday | TV: FOX
The lookahead line for this game was +4 at FanDuel, but the opening spread is yet to be posted, presumably because of the injury suffered by Washington quarterback Kyle Allen (ankle).
I presume that veteran Alex Smith will start Week 10 and when that happens, I’d be willing to bet on the Footballers down to a pick’em.
There are some head coaches who just seem to have a talent for making the worst of a good situation. Guys who can’t help but dull their teams’ edges with the bluntness of their ineptitude.
The exemplar extraordinaire of this type of coach has long been Jason Garrett, formerly of the Cowboys. Excluding his partial 2010 season as Dallas’ interim coach, Garrett was 36-54-3 ATS at home and 44-58-5 ATS as a favorite.
And as a home favorite, he was a horrible 24-41-2 ATS. When his team had an edge, Garrett simply could not live up to expectations.
Here’s why I bring this up: Lions head coach Matt Patricia feels like the new Garrett. His Detroit teams consistently underwhelm and play an uninspired style of football, and we see that in the numbers.
The samples aren’t large — because, thankfully, Patricia hasn’t been a head coach that long — but opponents have had positive splits on the road and as underdogs against the Lions.
- Visitors (19 games): 12-7 ATS | 23.6% ROI
- Underdogs (10 games): 6-4 | 18.2% ROI
As road dogs, opponents are 4-1 ATS (57% ROI).
As for the Footballers, it’s just an added bonus that they’re road dogs coming off a loss (more on that angle later).
- Action: Football Team +4/Off the Board (-110) at FanDuel
- Limit: PK (-110)
Seahawks (+1) at Rams
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET on Sunday | TV: FOX
Oh, yes. Yes. Yes. Yes.
For his career, quarterback Russell Wilson is 73-56-7 ATS (10.2% ROI) in the regular season. He tends to be a profitable player to back in a vacuum.
And in particular spots he’s significantly better.
The Seahawks just endured a 44-34 defeat to the Bills, and Wilson is 24-12-4 ATS (27.8%) off a loss.
And as an underdog, Wilson is 23-9-2 ATS (38.4% ROI). Almost all the value he has offered investors throughout his career has come when getting points.
Wilson is in a good spot.
And aside from anything to do with the Seahawks, I generally want to invest in road dogs off a loss, which I think the sports-betting public tends to undervalue.
Not all teams are either road dogs off a loss or home favorites off a win, but it’s instructive to compare these two cohorts.
- Road Dogs Off a Loss: 764-674-39 ATS | 3.4% ROI
- Home Favorites Off a Win: 721-738-41 ATS | -3% ROI
A 3.4% ROI might not seem like much but over a sample this large, it’s significant. Within Bet Labs, road dogs off a loss have earned an A- grade.
This looks like an angle we can exploit, especially this year, when home-field advantage has been minimized due to COVID-19 restrictions on attendance.
And if you look at the numbers, it turns out that this year has been the most profitable one for this trend. In 2020, road dogs off a loss are 26-15 ATS (22.7% ROI).
And last year was the third-most profitable one for this trend: 45-28-5 ATS (18.1% ROI).
Could there be a reason (other than COVID-19) for road dogs off a loss to be especially undervalued over the past two or so years?
I say this as a non-sharp bettor, but going against road dogs off a loss is a very square thing to do. Since 2019, many inexperienced bettors have entered the market as more states have legalized sports speculation.
Perhaps, road dogs coming off a loss have recently been undervalued because the market has become less sophisticated with the influx of new money. Regardless, you don’t need to twist my arm to get me to bet on Wilson in this spot. I think the Seahawks should be favored.
- Action: Seahawks +1 (-110) at William Hill
- Limit: -2.5 (-110)
Matthew Freedman is 749-587-31 (56.1%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
The Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs, Freedman is commonly called the Oracle & the Labyrinthian.