NFL Week 2 Betting Trends: How to Profit off NFL Week 1 Overreactions
Pictured: Aaron Rodgers. Photo by David Berding/Getty Images
The Bears (+6.5) beat the 49ers.
The Texans (+7) tied against the Colts.
The Giants (+5.5) took out the Titans in Tennessee.
As usual, Week 1 in the NFL brought its fair share of chaos — but overall, the trends through sixteen games were relatively normal.
Favorites and home teams went 9-7 ATS, unders went 11-5 and public sides (51% tickets or more) came in at 6-10 ATS in Week 1.
The one NFL trend in betting that has stood the test of time is the Week 1 to Week 2 overreaction in the betting lines based on what we just saw.
Just think: 14 teams made the playoffs in the NFL last year. Nine of them lost in Week 1.
Opportunity is ripe in Week 2. Let's look at the trends.
3 NFL Week 2 Trends That Can Help You Profit off of Week 1 Overreactions
Dogs Will Hunt
Per our Bet Labs database, here are some against-the-spread numbers since 2005 for Week 2 underdogs that speak to the overreaction narrative:
+ Overall: 144-121-7 ATS (54.3%)
+ Week 2 underdogs that lost straight up in Week 1: 85-67-3 ATS (55.9%)
Week 2 matches: Jets at Browns, Jaguars vs. Colts, Panthers at Giants, Falcons at Rams, Cowboys vs. Bengals, Cardinals at Raiders, Titans at Bills
+ Week 2 underdogs that failed to cover by a TD or more in Week 1: 53-38-2 ATS (58.2%)
Week 2 matches: Jets at Browns, Cowboys vs. Bengals, Cardinals at Rams
+ Week 2 underdogs that lost straight up as a favorite in Week 1: 32-20-2 ATS (61.5%)
Week 2 matches: Panthers at Giants, Titans at Bills
Just how valuable are underdogs early in the season?
Since 2010, underdogs in Weeks 1, 2 and 3 are 322-256-11 ATS (55.7%). In Weeks 4-18, underdogs are 1225-1211-67 ATS (50.3%) in that same span.
Scoring Isn't All Equal
Here is a list of teams that scored 28 points or more in Week 1:
- Chiefs (44)
- Eagles (38)
- Lions (35)
- Bills (31)
- Commanders (28)
Two things history has taught us about Week 1: Not all scoring is consistent, and don't believe everything you just saw.
Since 2005, teams that scored 28 or more points in Week 1 have gone 54-83-4 ATS (39.4%) in Week 2, including 15-25 ATS (37.5%) when that same team allowed 28 or more points in Week 1, too (that includes the Lions and Eagles this week).
The question is, how can we identify which of the teams that scored 28 or more points will regress?
Two data points worth considering:
- Teams that won six games or fewer the previous season in this spot are 10-25-2 ATS (28.6%) (Lions).
- Teams that missed the playoffs the previous season in this spot are 23-45-4 ATS (33.8%) (Commanders and Lions).
Keep It Simple with Blowouts
Over the last decade, if you simply blindly bet all teams in Week 2 coming off of a double-digit loss in Week 1, you would be 36-23-1 ATS (61%), with a $100 bettor up $1,121.
In Week 2 this year, we have six games that fit the bill:
- Patriots at Steelers
- Jets at Browns
- Rams vs. Falcons
- Cowboys vs. Bengals
- Cardinals at Raiders
- Packers vs. Bears
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