NFL Expert Picks: Saints-Bengals, Cowboys-Eagles, More Week 10 Bets

Nov 11, 2018 11:04 AM EST
  • The Action Network experts break down their favorite NFL bets for Week 10, including Saints-Bengals and Cowboys-Eagles.
  • Plus against-the-spread and over/under picks for Lions-Bears, Cardinals-Chiefs, Redskins-Bucs and more.

I think the Steelers just scored again.

With ANOTHER Thursday Night Football rout behind us, it’s time to focus on some of the most intriguing Week 10 storylines, including:

  • Can the Saints back up their huge win over the Rams in a sleepy spot in Cincinnati against a banged up Bengals squad?
  • How will the abnormally high number of double-digit favorites this weekend perform against the spread (ATS)?
  • Along those same lines, how will the public fare after such a great Week 9 betting the NFL?

Our staff has angles on each of those three highly-anticipated matchups, plus valuable betting insight into the rest of Week 10’s slate.

We actually have a consensus on the side and over/under in the Saints-Bengals game — which makes up five of the 18 favorites submitted.

We also have agreement on the total (as well as an angle on the side) for the Sunday Night Football showdown between NFC East rivals Dallas and Philadelphia.

For even more in-depth analysis, be sure to check out our betting guides for every single game.

Our staff picks now sit at 75-71-11 (51.4%) for the season. Let’s take a look at our 18 favorite bets for Week 10, which can hopefully guide you to some winners. Stuckey


>> All odds pulled from 5Dimes overnight on Thursday, so line variations are possible. Download The Action Network app to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.


AFTERNOON ACTION

Chris Raybon: Bengals-Saints Under 54

1 p.m. ET on FOX

The Bengals offense will struggle to live up to its No. 4 ranking in rate of explosive passing plays without A.J. Green, who is responsible for 40% of the team’s air yards and ranks fourth in the league with 12 receptions of 20 or more yards.

New Orleans’ defense ranks No. 3 in DVOA vs. the run and can force Cincinnati into being a one-dimensional, short-passing team.

On the other side of the ball, we know the Saints can score, but they rank second in the league with a 52% run rate since Mark Ingram’s return and could chew up a lot of clock in the process. The under is 3-1 in Saints road games this season.

Sean Koerner: Saints-Bengals Under 54

1 p.m. ET on FOX

As Chris mentioned, Drew Brees is a bit more human on the road, but this week the Bengals’ game plan could also ensure this is a lower-scoring game.

With Green out, I think the Bengals will want to use Joe Mixon and Gio Bernard (expected to return this week) to work the clock and attempt to keep the Saints offense off the field as long as possible.

The 7-1 Saints are just as equipped to lean on the run game, which they like to do more on the road — especially against a vulnerable Bengals defense without stud LB Vontaze Burfict.

I think the Saints will rely on their defense to contain Andy Dalton without his favorite weapon.

It helps when both teams’ blueprint to victory benefit the under.

Evan AbramsSaints-Bengals Under 54

1 p.m. ET on FOX

Sign me up on the under as well.

Since the beginning of 2016, Cincinnati has averaged just 21 points per game in the six games Dalton has played without Green. And none of the six had more than 46 combined points, with an average of just 35.8 points.

In those six games, Dalton threw just seven touchdowns (1.2 TD/game). In comparison, Dalton had 42 touchdowns in 24 games (1.8 average) since that stretch without Green.

The Bengals’ offense has also really missed tight end Tyler Eifert since his Week 4 season-ending injury. With Eifert, Dalton averaged:

  • 7.6 yards per attempt
  • 65.6% completion percentage

Since Eifert’s absence, Dalton’s averages have dropped to:

  • 6.7 yards per attempt
  • 60.7% completion percentage

For New Orleans, injuries to its offensive line could create issues in the running game.

According to Football Outsiders, the Saints offensive line ranks fourth in pass protection and fifth in run blocking, but after facing Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh, almost their entire line is listed on the injury report this week.

Chad Millman: Bengals +5.5 (vs. Saints)

1 p.m. ET on FOX

This one popped out to me in neon lights when I first saw the number posted. All the red flags are there:

  • The Bengals, a good defense, off a bye.
  • The Bengals, off a bye, playing at home.
  • The Saints, fresh off of beating the Rams, being the new public darlings.
  • The Saints, off a dominant win, being in a natural let-down spot.

It’s so hard to make a decision that relies on Dalton over Brees, but take into consideration that bookmakers were pummeled last week by the public.

They are going to over-inflate lines in favor of dogs because they know fans are flush with cash and confident that the favored teams are going to win.

Ken BarkleyBengals +5.5 (vs. Saints)

1 p.m. ET on FOX

It made me cringe to even type the words, so this must really be a stinky game. And I love that feeling when betting the NFL.

Everyone just watched the Saints beat the best team in the league on national television last Sunday, while the Bengals have suffered an incredible number of key injuries. By all accounts, this should be a blowout.

But it also means the difference between these teams is probably as stretched as it can be in the market.

This is still a dome team playing outdoors after a huge win — against an out-of-conference opponent coming off a bye. No matter which teams are involved, those are generally factors that predict poor performance by one side and positive by the other.

I’ll take the Bengals and hope they have enough players by Sunday to field a full starting lineup.

John Ewing: Bills +7 (at Jets)

1 p.m. ET on CBS

Buffalo’s offense (10.4 PPG) is comically bad. The team hasn’t scored more than 13 points in a game since Week 3 and has managed to score only eight touchdowns this season. For context, the Rams and Saints combined to score 10 touchdowns in their Week 9 game alone.

But bad offenses are often undervalued, especially after a blowout loss, which the Bills suffered against the Bears in Week 9, getting blown out, 41-9.

Since 2003, teams following a blowout loss that score fewer than 20 points per game, like Buffalo, have gone 83-55-4 (60%) ATS as underdogs in their next game. I like the Bills here.

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Credit:

Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Bengals quarterback Andy Dalton

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
45
+3
45
+4
41
-9.5
40.5
-7
59
-14.5
60
-13
47
+9.5
46.5
+9.5
43.5
-11
43
-10.5
46.5
-7
46
-6
54
-3
55
-3
48
-3
47.5
-3
47
-3
47.5
-3
38
+3
37.5
+3
44
-13
45
-12
51
-10
51
-10
47.5
+3.5
47
+3
48.5
-4.5
48
-3
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