NFL Week 5 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

NFL Week 5 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer article feature image

We've hit the quarter pole in the NFL! Let's look at Week 5 with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know.

Welcome to Week 5 of the Action Network NFL betting primer.

1. Bigger Than Ever.

If the Pittsburgh Steelers close as high as a 14-point underdog against the Bills, it will be their biggest line as an underdog in over 50 years.

Steelers Largest Underdog Since NFL-AFL Merger (1970)

+14 at Bills (2022)
+13.5 vs. Cowboys (Super Bowl 30; 1995-96. Lost, 27-17)
+11.5 at Chiefs (2021-22 playoffs; Lost, 42-21)
+11.5 at Oilers (1992; Won, 29-24)

2. Hot-Lanta.

The Atlanta Falcons are 4-0 against the spread for the first time since 2015. The Falcons have never started 5-0 ATS in franchise history.

Not to mention, Atlanta is a big underdog against Tampa Bay this week.

Biggest dogs, 4-0 ATS teams since 1998

+ 1998 Saints, +10.5 (L, 31-0)
+ 2022 Falcons, +10
+ 2002 Chargers, +6.5 (L, 26-9)
+ 2003 Colts, +4.5 (W, 38-35)

3. Houston Love.

The Jaguars have been favored just twice since September of 2020 (a total of 33 games).

Week 5 will be their third time overall as a favorite in that span, and all three games as a favorite have come against the Texans. The Jaguars lost both games by 14+ points.

4. Teddy Covers.

Teddy Bridgewater is back in the saddle.

Bridgewater is 43-21 against the spread in his NFL career, including 24-6 ATS on the road. In the last 20 years, Teddy is the fifth-most profitable QB ATS.

Most Profitable QBs ATS Last 20 Years

  1. Tom Brady: 192-133-9 ATS
  2. Aaron Rodgers: 133-93-5 ATS
  3. Peyton Manning: 114-86-9 ATS
  4. Drew Brees: 154-128-6 ATS
  5. Teddy Bridgewater: 43-21 ATS

5. Such A Rush.

In the last 20 years, Cooper Rush is currently the ONLY undefeated QB against the spread (minimum four starts). Not to mention, Rush is also the first Cowboys QB to start career 4-0

4-0 SU/ATS first four starts as a backup in the last decade:

2021-22 Cooper Rush, DAL
2018-19 Kyle Allen, CAR
2016-17 Jimmy Garoppolo, NE/SF
2015 Matt Hasselbeck, IND

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, Oct. 9, 10 a.m. ET.

NFL Week 5

Click on a topic to skip ahead
Thursday Night Football
IND 12, DEN 9
Market Movers
Biggest Week 5 Line Moves
Sharp Report
How the Pros Are Betting Week 5
The Big Picture
2022 Betting Year Update
Rapid Fire
Week 5 Game-by-Game Betting Notes
Action Audio
Best NFL Podcasts for Week 5
What's Next?
Early Week 6 Betting Trends

Thursday Night Football

Thursday, Oct. 6
8:20 p.m. ET
Colts Odds
Broncos Odds
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

Primetime Russ?

In Russell Wilson’s career, he is 29-18-3 ATS (61.7%) under the lights (6 p.m. ET or later), the fourth-most profitable QB in Bet Labs behind Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers.

But recently, Russ is just 3-10 ATS in his last 13 starts in primetime.

Russell Wilson is 29-18-4 ATS (62%) after a loss and 15-7-2 ATS (68%) at home in primetime.

Not What You Think…

Advantage to Denver with Colts on short rest traveling to Mile High? Broncos have actually lost five straight and six of seven SU when their opponent is on short rest in Denver dating back to 2016.

How Jonathan Taylor's absence impacts Thursday Night Football.

Off Sin City: Broncos are first team to play on TNF coming off a road game in Vegas.

The Good & The Bad.

+ Matt Ryan is 26-41-1 ATS (38.8%) over the last five seasons, losing a $100 bettor $1,667, the least profitable QB in the NFL.

+ Frank Reich on road vs. opponents .500 or better: 12-10 SU, 16-6 ATS (#1 of 61 coaches since being hired)

Under The Radar. The under has cashed in nine consecutive Colts games by 8.7 PPG – the only undefeated team to the over or under since December of last year. Also, the under at Mile High is 39-22-1 (63.9%) since 2015 as the Broncos are the most profitable home under team in that span.

Under The Lights

Unders at night are 9-4 so far this season. Going back even further, they are 103-73-3 to under (58.5%) since 2019.

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Market Movers

For more information on betting percentages, line moves and ticket counts, access our Action Network odds dashboard.

Biggest NFL Week 5 Public Sides
(The most popular spread bets for Week 5)

77% of bets at Panthers
70% of bets at Commanders
69% of bets at Jets

Most Bet Games by Ticket Count in Week 5
(The most popular bet games for Week 5, excluding Thursday Night Football)

160,000 betting tickets
120,000 betting tickets
113,000 betting tickets

Biggest Line Moves in Week 5

Spread Movers (lines compared to lookahead lines):

(+2 to -5.5)
7.5-pt move at Cardinals
(-9.5 to -14)
4.5-pt move vs. Steelers
(-2.5 to -6.5)
4-pt move at Panthers

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The Sharp Report

PRO Report

Sharp bet
Eagles -5.5 | Sunday, 4:25 PM ET
Bet %
PHI: 59% of Bets
Handle %
PHI: 86% of Handle

If you want to make betting decisions for yourself but don’t have the time to collect all the data, check out our NFL PRO Report. This analysis highlights five key betting signals: big money, sharp action, expert projections, expert picks, and historical betting systems.

Our model's odds are compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a B Grade 3.5% edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.

PRO Systems

Bet Against Public After A Bad Game. Don't bet based off what you just saw. This is an opportunity to go against the grain.
Week 5 picks -> PRO Access

PRO Props

Top Props for Week 4: Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
Bet: Over 8.5 rush attempts (-110)

Prop projections and grades for every NFL player in the Action App.

How to use the Action Network's PRO Report to make your betting decisions easier.

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The Big Picture

Super Bowl Movers: Through four weeks, here are the biggest riser and biggest faller in the Super Bowl odds.
(Odds entering Week 1 to current)

SB: 150-1 to 50-1 | AFC South: +750 to +175

SB: 40-1 to 125-1 | AFC East: +475 to +4000



2022 Season Betting Update
Best Teams
ATS: Falcons 4-0
Moneyline: Cowboys 3-1 (+$341 on $100/game)
Overs: Lions 4-0
Unders: Bengals, Colts & 49ers all 4-0
Point Spread
The point spread has actually mattered in just in 11 of the 64 games. The winners of the games have gone 51-11-2 ATS.
Favorites this year: 36-27-1 SU, 25-38-1 ATS.
This Season: 27-36-1 SU (+$574), 38-25-1 ATS
Underdogs thru 4 weeks last 2 seasons: 76-51-1 ATS
ATS Streaks
Wins: Falcons (4), Cowboys (3), Eagles (3)
Losses: Bears (3), Vikings (3), Commanders (3)

For more content on NFL betting stats and notes check out our recap page on Action Network.

Two Betting Trends For Week 5

Road Dogs.

Road underdogs are 21-15 ATS this season and a robust 378-302-19 ATS (55.5%) since 2018. Road dogs have been profitable all five individual seasons since 2018.

Tight Dogs.

Underdogs in games with an over/under below 42 are 96-60-4 ATS since 2018. In the first eight weeks of the regular season, that spikes to 50-26-1 ATS.

Week 5 Matches: Panthers (vs. 49ers) and Giants (vs. Packers)

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Rapid Fire

Packers vs. Giants

International Chalk. Favorites overseas have had tons of success…

+ Favorites of over a FG overseas are 16-2 SU, 12-6 ATS.
+ In 35 international games, favorites are 27-7-1 SU, 23-12 ATS.
+ London favorites are 19-3-1 SU, 15-8 ATS without the Jaguars involved in any of the games. In early kickoffs (9/9:30 a.m. ET), they are 10-0-1 SU, 7-4 ATS.
+ International games where a team has a spread % of 75% or higher are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS.

How About The Total. There have been five NFL games played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. All four games have totaled at least 43 points, with the over 4-1.

This will also be the first overseas game where both teams scoring and allowing fewer than 20 PPG.

Foreign Land. Aaron Rodgers is 16-7-1 SU, 17-7 ATS after a win but no cover in his last game. When his next game is away from home? 8-0 SU.

+ Rodgers as a favorite on a three-game win streak or more: 42-11 SU, 33-20 ATS
+ Rodgers has won and covered seven straight games vs. opponents averaging 21 PPG or fewer.

+ Giants total game points in four games this season: 32, 39, 35, 41

+ Packers are ninth team to go overseas on a three-game win streak or more: 7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS

Road Jones. Daniel Jones has excelled away from home in his career.

+ Home: 9-13 ATS
+ Road/Neutral: 13-6 ATS (#4 of 84 QBs)

Rare Air. Some firsts for the Giants and Bears with their anemic offense.

+ Giants threw for fewer than 100 yards and ran for over 250 yards for the first time in 20+ years vs. Bears.
+ First game since Oct. 2017 where both teams scoring and allowing fewer than 20 PPG in the fifth game or later of a season. Since 2006, over is 8-2 in those such games.


Seahawks at Saints

No Bye For You. The Saints will play Seattle after the London game without a bye week in between.

Only five times in NFL history has a team returned home from Europe without a bye week. Every one of those teams was tied or trailing in the fourth quarter the following week. They’re 2-3 ATS, and two of the three favorites lost straight up (via Brandon Anderson).

Not Our Favorite. If it is Jameis Winston at QB, he’s 8-18-1 ATS (31%) as a favorite, failing to cover in five of his last six opportunities.

Nola. Hard to win in New Orleans on a road trip (second game or later)? It is for PST/MST teams (West Coast teams). 2-7 SU in the last 20 years, losing by 9.1 PPG.

Voodoo. Saints have lost three straight games. Nobody breaks a streak like New Orleans, who is 16-6-1 ATS last 20 years off three or more losses in a row.

Lately though, it hasn't been the same home. The Saints are 2-7 SU/ATS in their last nine home games.

Let's Ride. Geno Smith has a 77.3 completion percentage (102 of 132 passes) through his first four games this season, the highest completion percentage (minimum 125 attempts) by a quarterback in his first four games of a season in NFL history.

Not Again. In the last decade, Seattle is just the third team to score and allow 40+ pts in a road win and play on the road again. The other two teams lost on the road SU.


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Steelers at Bills

Off New York. Steelers lost to the Jets in Week 4. The last 11 teams to lose to New York are 2-9 ATS in their next game dating back to 2019.

Adjustments. The biggest advantage in Buffalo? It might just be the Bills in the second half. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 44-23-3 (65.7%) against the second-half spread.

Scared to ride Buffalo after they lead at the half? Don’t. Bills are 27-11-1 (71.1%) against the second-half spread when leading at the half. When leading at the half, the Bills have covered the 2H spread in 16 of their last 19 games.

Stop It. Dating back to 2016, Steelers have won and covered five straight games on a three-game losing streak or longer. Steelers haven’t lost four straight SU since 2016.

Bounce Back. After losing turnover battle by two or more in their previous game, the Steelers are 5-0 ATS since 2020.

Top Bill. The Bills entering Week 5: 28.5 PPG, allowing 14.5 PPG.

Only four teams have done that in the last decade:

2021 Bills
2019 Patriots
2019 49ers
2016 Eagles


Falcons at Buccaneers

Dirty Bird. The Falcons are 4-0 ATS for the first time since 2015. The Falcons have never started 5-0 ATS in franchise history.

Atlanta is the 28th team in the last 20 years to start 4-0 ATS. Those teams are 13-13-1 ATS in their fifth game. None were listed as an underdog higher than 4.5 points.

If Atlanta Covers. The 5-0 ATS teams in the last 20 years:

2021 DAL, 2018 KC, 2017 KC, 2016 MIN, 2015 GB, 2014 LAC, 2009 NO, 2009 DEN, 2008 TEN, 2007 NE, 2004 PHI, 2003 MIN, 2003 IND.


+ Tom Brady vs. Falcons: 10-0 SU, 9-1 ATS.
+ Teams Brady is undefeated SU against: 10-0 vs. ATL, 7-0 vs. DAL, 6-0 vs. MIN.
+ Brady's most profitable opponent ATS: BUF 22-12-2 ATS, ATL 9-1 ATS, MIN 5-1 ATS, PIT 11-4 ATS.
+ Last 20 years, Brady is 11-0 SU, 9-2 ATS when his team is on a 2-game losing streak.
+ Brady vs. undefeated ATS teams in Week 3 or later last 20 years: 10-2 SU/ATS (5-0 SU last decade).

Started From the Bottom. The Falcons were 250-1 to win the Super Bowl in the preseason. Atlanta was 100-1 or higher to win the Super Bowl in the preseason for the first time since 2008.

Scoring Issues. Marcus Mariota points scored in his last four games vs. defenses allowing 17 PPG or fewer: 7, 0, 15, 17.

Looking Up. Marcus Mariota Against The Spread…

  • 2022: 4-0 ATS
  • 2015-21: 26-35-2 ATS – the fourth-least profitable QB in NFL.

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Bears at Vikings

Sour Fields. Justin Fields has played five games vs. NFC North (1-4 SU/ATS). He won and covered his first start vs. Lions. He’s 0-4 SU/ATS since.

Fields is 4-10 ATS as a starting QB, including 3-9 ATS as an underdog.

Bad Dog. Bears are 4-23 on moneyline as above a FG underdog since 2019 (2-18 SU as a TD dog or bigger since 2016).

No Bye For You. The Vikings will play Chicago after the London game without a bye week in between.

Only five times in NFL history has a team returned home from Europe without a bye week. Every one of those teams was tied or trailing in the fourth quarter the following week. They’re 2-3 ATS, and two of the three favorites lost straight up (via Brandon Anderson).

A Different Game. The Giants and Bears are the first teams to average 150+ rush yards but fewer than 150 pass yards in their fifth game or later since the 2010 Raiders.

All Even. Kirk Cousins is 63-63-1 ATS in his NFL career.

Tumbling. The Vikings have lost three consecutive games ATS. With the Vikings, Cousins is 0-4 ATS on at least a three-game ATS losing streak.

Not Pretty. The Bears are 0-4 against first-half spread this season.


Dolphins at Jets

Road Trip. Teams on a road trip with extended rest in New York (Giants or Jets) are 10-19 ATS last 20 years.

Great, but Hold. Teddy Bridgewater is 43-21 ATS career but just 15-14 ATS since 2020.

He's 27-9 ATS as a dog but just 16-11 ATS as favorite (4-2 ATS as a road favorite).

He's 32-10 ATS vs. non-divisional opponents but just 11-11 ATS vs. divisional opponents.

Backup King. Bridgewater has played as a backup QB 18 times in his career, and he is 11-7 SU, 14-4 ATS. Since 2019 he’s 5-0 SU/ATS.

Going back-to-back? Jets haven’t won consecutive games SU since Dec. 20 & 27 of 2020 (only time it's happened since 2019).

AFC South Beach. Dolphins are 17-8-1 ATS vs. AFC East since 2018 (won five straight SU, three straight ATS).

The second-best ATS record vs. a division since 2018 (DAL 19-7 ATS vs. NFC East).


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Lions at Patriots

30 Years Later. The Lions haven’t started the season 3-0 ATS since the 1992 season.

Off Lambeau. The Patriots are coming off a game last week at Lambeau Field. Teams coming off games at Lambeau Field are 88-65-3 ATS (57.5%) in their next game over the last 20 years, second-best previous road spot (Bears).

Both Sides of It. Jared Goff is 14-4 ATS in the first three weeks of the regular season in his career and 34-38-2 ATS in Week 4 and later.

Goff has lost seven straight games SU vs. teams averaging fewer than 20 PPG (DET/LAR).

Trendy. Are Lions over a trend? They are 4-0 this year, going over in their last six games overall. The six overs in a row are Detroit’s longest over streak since 2007 (eight in a row). Lions are the only 4-0 over team this season.

Lions Bounceback? Teams to score 40+ points and lose SU are 14-6 ATS in their next game, covering by five PPG.

Not Again. In the last 20 years, Bill Belichick is 14-2 SU, 10-6 ATS off a two-game losing streak or longer.

+ Belichick is 36-14 SU, 38-11-1 ATS after a loss as either an underdog or under a TD favorite in that span.

High Octane. Last 20 years, Patriots have faced just TWO teams scoring and allowing 28+ PPG. NE is 2-0 ATS.

  • 2021 Bucs, NE (+6.5) lost 19-17.
  • 2007 Bengals, New England (-7.5) won 34-13.

Step It Up. Patriots have allowed 27+ points in consecutive games. Under Belichick, New England is 10-5 ATS after allowing 27+ points in consecutive games since 2003.

+ 10, 3, 6, 14, 6 – the points allowed by New England in these such games since 2015.


49ers at Panthers

Long Flight, Short Rest. The 49ers are going PST to EST on short rest. Those such teams are 16-22-2 ATS last 20 years. When they are coming off a divisional game? 3-10 ATS.

+ Chargers, Seahawks, 49ers, L.A. Rams, Raiders, Cardinals. When they go PST to EST on short rest, they are 7-13-1 ATS last 20 years.

Early Lead. The 49ers defense has allowed fewer than 20 points in all four games this season, and they are 4-0 against the first-half spread this season.

Golden Rhule. The Panthers are 1-26 SU and 5-22 ATS when their opponent scores 17 pts or more under Matt Rhule. Carolina is 10-0 SU/ATS when they allow 17 points or fewer.

Hold The Door. Panthers have gone 21 straight games without allowing an opening drive touchdown. An NFL record.

Tough Going. Since Oct. 1, 2021, Panthers are 3-15 ATS. In that span, no other team has fewer than six ATS wins.

Last Chance. Baker Mayfield faces the 49ers this week. In his NFL career at home, he’s 2-10 ATS vs. any team outside the EST.

Since Baker Mayfield’s first start in 2018, the least profitable QB ATS (of 103 QBs):

101. Sam Darnold: 18-30-1 ATS
102. Baker Mayfield: 26-38-1 ATS
103. Matt Ryan: 26-41-1 ATS


Eagles at Cardinals

Road Trip. In 25 career starts, this will be just the sixth time Jalen Hurts plays outside the Eastern Time Zone. He is 1-4 SU and ATS.

Streaking. Eagles have won now their past seven regular season games straight up in which Jalen Hurts starts — the longest active streak among NFL QBs.

Since Week 8 of last season, only Patrick Mahomes has a better SU winning percentage than Hurts.

Off The Kliff. The Cardinals beat the Panthers on the road last week and now they return home, which may not be a great thing.

Kliff Kingsbury NFL Career

  • Home: 9-17 ATS
  • Road: 19-7-2 ATS

Late Bloomers. Opponents have outscored the Cardinals, 31-0, in the first quarter this season. Through Week 4, the Cardinals have been outscored, 103-88.

Cardinals Scoring Margin by Half

+ 1H: ARI 16, Opp 66
+ 2H/OT: ARI 72, Opp 37

The Good & Bad. The Cardinals have lost and failed to cover in seven consecutive home games. This is their longest home ATS losing streak in over 20 years.

But, in the last 20 years, the Cardinals are 5-0 SU/ATS at home vs. Eagles.

Hot Start. Eagles are 4-0 SU for the first time since 2004.

+ Eagles 4-0 starts: 2022, 2004, 1993, 1992. They've only started 5-0 once: 2004 (made the Super Bowl).
+ Teams who are undefeated SU entering their fifth game are 32-24-2 ATS last 20 years.
+ Last 20 years, only five teams have started 4-0 SU and had to go EST to MST/PST on road – and only ONE was listed as a favorite: 2015 Patriots (-2.5, lost 30-24 in Denver).
+ Last 20 years, undefeated teams SU who played at home in EST and then go on road in MST/PST are just 6-15 SU and 7-14 ATS, including 2-10 SU/ATS since 2010.

Rising Star. When MVP odds opened in February, Jalen Hurts was 40-1. By Week 1 he was 22-1, entering Week 4 he was down to 7-1, and now he’s +550, which is fourth behind Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson.


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Cowboys at Rams

Out West. Cowboys have gone from home in Texas to Pacific Standard Time (PST) three times in the last five years, they are 0-3 SU and ATS.

Get Back Spot. Sean McVay and the Rams have won and covered five straight games on short rest. Also, the combo of McVay and Stafford are 3-0 SU/ATS on short rest.

Under Cash. Cowboys are the first team since the 2019 Steelers to win & cover three straight while scoring and allowing under 20 PPG for the season.

In the last decade, that’s happened six other times, those teams are 0-6 SU/ATS in their next game.

Not just that, the Cowboys defense has allowed fewer than 20 points in all four games this season. Teams to allow fewer than 20 points first four games, 19-10-1 ATS in their fifth game.

Feel The Rush. In the last 20 years, Cooper Rush is currently the ONLY undefeated QB against the spread (minimum four starts) and the first Cowboys QB to start his career 4-0 SU.

4-0 SU and ATS QBs in their first four starts as a backup in the last decade:

  • 2021-22 Cooper Rush, DAL
  • 2018-19 Kyle Allen, CAR
  • 2016-17 Jimmy G, NE
  • 2015 M Hasselbeck, IND

Still On Top. Since the start of last season, the Cowboys (16-6 ATS) and Dak Prescott (12-6 ATS) are still the most profitable team/QB against the spread.


Bengals at Ravens

Wagon Effect. Ravens lost to the Bills last week. Teams after playing Buffalo are 14-22 ATS the following week since 2020, failing to cover 10 of the last 12 games in this spot.

Going Low. The under has cashed in nine straight Bengals games.

Lamar Love. Good history at home in primetime and after a home loss.

+ 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS at home in primetime.
+ 6-0 SU after a home loss.

Rest vs. Rust. John Harbaugh vs. teams based on their rest entering the game.

  • Less than week: 14-13-1 ATS (+3.4 cover margin)
  • Full seven days: 70-78-4 ATS (+1.1)
  • More than a week: 32-17-2 ATS (+3.5)
    • Harbaugh is 11-3 ATS vs. AFC North when Baltimore's opponent is on extended rest.

Home Cooking. In the regular season, John Harbaugh is 18-2 SU and 12-8 ATS at home in primetime.

Tough Going. The Ravens threw for just 134 yards vs. Bills. Lamar Jackson is 13-2 SU, 11-4 ATS after throwing for 150 yards or fewer in his previous game.

Burrow The Dog. In Joe Burrow's NFL career, he is 8-11-1 straight up and 13-7 against the spread as an underdog.

Since being drafted, he is the third-most profitable QB ATS as an underdog (behind Jimmy Garoppolo and Daniel Jones).

Burrow's rookie year looked much different than his sophomore campaign.

Joe Burrow NFL Career As Underdog

+ 2021-22: 7-4 SU, 8-3 ATS (incl. playoffs)
+ 2020: 1-7-1 SU, 5-4 ATS

Great Spot. Joe Burrow has played 23 games in his career with a spread of under a FG favorite or an underdog, he is 16-9 ATS.

Burrow is 17-3 in a 6-point teaser as an underdog in his career.


Raiders at Chiefs

Monday Mahomes. Patrick Mahomes is 5-1 straight up and 4-1-1 against the spread on Monday Night Football (only loss: Rams in Mexico).

He's tough to beat in primetime…

+ At night: 16-7 SU, 13-9-1 ATS
+ vs. Division at night: 9-1 SU, 6-4 ATS

Coming Home. The Chiefs are coming of a two-game road trip. Mahomes is 9-0 SU at Arrowhead after coming off any road trip (2+ games).

West Love. Mahomes has dominated the AFC West.

+ 5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS vs. Raiders.

+ 22-3 SU, 14-10-1 ATS vs. AFC West.

+ 7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS vs. AFC West on extended rest.

Patrick Mahomes TD-INT vs. AFC West:
12 TD, 4 INT vs. DEN
22 TD, 3 INT vs. LV
18 TD, 5 INT vs. LAC
52 TD, 12 INT

Just The Opposite. Derek Carr has struggled vs. the Chiefs: 1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS. After Carr and Raiders get a straight up win, he is 23-32 ATS. Since being drafted that ranks 116th of 119 QBs.

Zebra's & Dogs, Oh My. Carl Cheffers is doing the KC-LV game. Last 3 seasons, underdogs are 26-13 in his 39 games reffed, the most profitable ref to dogs in that span.

West Again. Raiders beat the Broncos for their first win last week. Derek Carr is just 6-7 SU but 10-3 ATS on the second leg of back-to-back divisional games.

Just Rollin'. Beware of teams with high score differentials on MNF. In the last decade, teams outsourcing their opponents by seven points or more this late in the season are 19-32-3 ATS on MNF.


Action Audio

  • The Favorites Podcast:The calendar turns to October, the greatest betting month of the year, as Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter return to break down every game on the NFL Wee 5 slate. Together they select the spread bets they're already betting as Sunday looms, plus all their leans elsewhere up and down the board.

  • The Action Network Podcast: Action hosts Chris Raybon and Stuckey return to break down another rousing week of NFL betting. Together they build a Sunday Six Pack that looks to target other coaches currently flailing in their roles, plus a potential sleepy spot in Western New York. We also get a lot of talk about what the Chicago Bears are calling an offense, the looming Cooper Rush bandwagon derailment, and so much more.

  • The Action Network Podcast: Action Network host Brendan Glasheen is joined by NFL betting experts Brandon Anderson, Gilles Gallant and Luke Swain, also known as Vegas Refund on Twitter for another NFL Best Bets episode for NFL Week 5. Together they lay out nine total bets, plus a top lookahead spot for Week 5, and all in less than 30 minutes. So jump in and enjoy! We'll see you right back here for our NFL Recap and MNF Preview episode on Monday morning!

For more Action Network podcasts, check out our page with a portfolio of ten different options across eight different sports.

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What's Next?

Commanders at Bears

  • The under is 35-26-1 (57.4%) on Thursday Night Football over the last 20 years when the over/under is below 42.
  • Justin Fields is 0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS at night. With an ATS loss on Thursday Night Football, he would be least profitable Bears QB ATS in primetime over the last 20 years.
  • Carson Wentz is 16-8 SU/ATS at night. Since his first start in 2016, he’s the most profitable QB ATS at night in the NFL (+$695).

Buccaneers at Steelers

  • The under is 2-0 in Bucs road games this season. Since 2016, the under is 33-23 (58.9%) in Tom Brady road games,3rd most profitable QB to under in that span (Big Ben, Kyler).

Ravens at Giants

  • The under is 14-1 in the Giants last 15 home games.

Broncos at Chargers

  • Russell Wilson is just 3-11 ATS in his last 14 starts in primetime.
  • Russell Wilson Career ATS:

    + 1st 3 years (2012-14): 36-19-1 ATS (best in NFL)
    + 2015-present: 55-62-6 ATS (under .500 ATS in 7 of 8 years)


  • The Giants will play Baltimore after the London game without a bye week in between. Only five times in NFL history prior to Week 5 has a team returned home from Europe without a bye week. Every one of those teams was tied or trailing in the fourth quarter the following week. They’re 2-3 ATS, and two of the three favorites lost straight up (via Brandon Anderson).

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