Week 6 of the NFL season is upon us. I've got you covered with my betting card filled with picks for six of this week's matchups, including predictions for Browns vs. Steelers, Cowboys vs. Panthers, and Lions vs. Chiefs.
Plus, I've also made a lookahead pick for Week 7 featuring next week's matchup between the Packers and Cardinals.
Let's get to my NFL Week 6 picks and predictions.
NFL Week 6 Predictions
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Seahawks vs Jaguars
Jacksonville is coming off a huge win this past Monday, one of its biggest in recent franchise history.
That's great for the Jaguars, but also makes this an obvious letdown spot after such an emotional comeback win, especially on short rest.
Jacksonville was lucky to get that win, needing a late stumbling, bumbling touchdown even after a 99-yard pick-6 that was effectively a 14-point swing for the Jags.
Jacksonville's defense made the big play, but was mostly miserable, allowing the Chiefs offense to hit a 64% Success Rate, a top-100 percentile outcome, and move the ball at will.
Now, the Jaguars face a Seattle offense that nearly matched that last week in an incredible performance against the Bucs, undone by a couple mistakes.
Jacksonville has the better record, but Seattle is the better team and should be favored here, and the Seahawks might be by kickoff as this line floats around a pick'em at the time of writing.
Seattle ranks second in DVOA on the season. It's not super surprising to see the Seahawks seventh on defense or first in special teams, but the offense has been shocking.
Sam Darnold has been a revelation for the league's No. 1 passing offense, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba has broken out as a true star WR1 and sleeper OPOY contender.
The Jaguars traded for Browns CB Greg Newsome. Could he immediately get the JSN assignment? Yikes.
Neither of these defenses really covered themselves in glory last week.
Seattle's pass defense got shredded, dropping from second to 15th in DVOA, but faced a much better passing attack and a bunch of secondary injuries.
A healthier unit should be able to hold up better against what's really been the most disappointing part of the Jaguars' season thus far: Trevor Lawrence and the unreliable passing game.
Jacksonville's defense also saw its metrics fall way off last week, down from top-3 to around league-average overall, and down from top-10 to bottom-10 against the run.
The Jaguars get Travon Walker back this week, but the defense has been overreliant on huge turnover swings, getting beaten on a down-to-down basis.
I like Jacksonville — I just like Seattle better.
In Weeks 6 and 7, underdogs of a touchdown or less against teams with an elite ATS record of 80-to-99% are an awesome 41-16-1 ATS, covering 72% of the time by about five points per game. Seattle is also a Luck Rankings side.
Grab Seahawks +1.5 or the best number available, and switch to the moneyline if you must.
I prefer the +1.5 since both coaches are aggressive and it wouldn't be surprising to see a 2-point conversion decide this one.
If you do like Seattle, this is also a great opportunity to invest in Seahawks' futures.
Seattle is top-5 in my power ratings. The Seahawks have a top-5 defense when healthy, a top-5 coaching staff and the league's best special teams. If the offense continues to play as a top-10 unit, Seattle could be a great pick to win the NFC West at +500 (DraftKings).
It's a great opportunity to fade the injury-riddled 49ers, who are underdogs in Tampa Bay.
This division looks like a three-horse race with the Rams in the mix too, and FTN projects all three teams between 10.3 and 10.7 wins, and between 26%-38% to win the division.
Seattle is lowest of the three, but not by much, and that 26% opportunity implies under +300, and will only get better with a win in Jacksonville.
Picks: Seahawks +1.5; Seahawks to Win NFC West (+500)
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Browns vs Steelers
I took Steelers -4.5 when this game re-opened Sunday night on the Hot Read, and I still like it, even as the line rises toward -7.
This is the single-biggest schedule advantage spot on the NFL calendar this season.
The Browns are on the road trip from hell. They played last Sunday morning in London after playing in Detroit the week before, and now fly back across the ocean again to play in Pittsburgh.
NFL teams that play overseas are given the option to take a bye the following week, but Cleveland declined and will now pay the price, a third straight road game with warped body clocks and exhausted travelers.
But it gets worse!
The Steelers are playing with an extra week of rest. They also played overseas — their last game was overseas against the Vikings! — but they took the early bye and haven't played for two weeks.
That turned out to be fortuitous timing for a team that's struggled to gel early and whose defense has been poor amidst a slew of veteran injuries to an older roster. Pittsburgh looks much healthier now coming out of the bye.
Corners Jalen Ramsey and Joey Porter Jr. return as the secondary should be its healthiest all season, and RB Jaylen Warren is back as well.
It looks like pass rusher Alex Highsmith should also rejoin T.J. Watt and Nick Herbig, forming the league's most fearsome pass rushing corps. These are huge star names back for Pittsburgh, worth over 1.5 points to the spread.
That defense had a chance to get healthy and find itself during the bye week, and now it gets a home game against Dillon Gabriel making his second start — and his first true road start — in a hostile environment against a division foe.
The home team has won seven straight in this rivalry by an average of nine points, and Mike Tomlin has won seven straight games after a bye week, covering six of the seven.
Home favorites tend to play well in the first half out of the bye, which should set up Pittsburgh to play on the front foot and overwhelm Gabriel. Browns head coach Kevin Stefanski is an ugly 11-21 ATS (34%) in divisional games.
All the old Aaron Rodgers' trends say to back him — as a favorite, at home, in the division, off a bye week.
This is a spot I've had circled on the calendar since the schedule came out, the sort of schedule advantage that can't even be quantified — the type you can almost bet blind.
I liked Steelers -4.5, and still like them at -5.5 (DraftKings).
We know -7 is a key number, but those sevens have been slowly fading toward sixes and even fives in recent years, as scoring varies with two-point conversions.
Be sure to grab this line before it hits -6 if you can, and with a daunting upcoming schedule, consider using the Steelers in your Survivor competition as well.
Pick: Steelers -5.5
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Cardinals vs Colts
Both of these teams got off to surprising 2-0 starts, but it's been a wide departure since.
The Cardinals have lost all three games since, though all five Arizona games have finished within one score.
The Colts continue to run it up with big wins over terrible Dolphins, Titans and Raiders defenses, but neither of these teams has played a tough schedule.
This should be more of a fair fight, and Colts -7.5 feels rich.
I'm not eager to back the Cardinals right now due to the state of their offense, but I make this line closer to -4 or -5, and I think those extra couple points for Indy are being baked into the total.
So, let's go with an under.
Arizona's defense has played pretty well so far after investing heavily into a flurry of additions this offseason. The Cardinals rank top-10 in Defensive DVOA, including top-10 against both the run and the pass.
The Colts defense has also played well after a huge upgrade to DC Lou Anarumo. They currently rank top-5 overall and against the pass, and though that feels a bit inflated, there's no doubt Indy's defense is playing well.
In a surprise twist from preseason expectations, Arizona's offense looks like the weakest unit on the field.
The Cards rank bottom 10 by DVOA, and have especially struggled to run the ball effectively after the departure of assistant coach Klayton Adams and the loss of their top two running backs.
Cardinals games are averaging just 39.8 points on the season, with one game at 49 and the others falling below our total of 47.5. No team has topped 27 points in any Arizona game yet this season.
It remains to be seen whether Kyler Murray will give it a go, but obviously a limited Murray or an appearance by Jacoby Brissett only hurts Arizona's offense further.
Murray road unders are 68% for his career, and Jonathan Gannon road unders are 67%. Daniel Jones home unders are also 70% for his career, including 2-1 this season on a new team.
Don't wait around for Murray news, because this total will likely drop a bit if he's ruled out.
Key numbers are tricky with totals, but 47 is one of the most important.
Pick: Under 47.5
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Patriots vs Saints
Drake Maye Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-105)
We enter Sunday off three straight upsets.
Who would have believed even a month ago that the Giants, Jaguars and Patriots would beat the Eagles, Chiefs and Bills to start October?
New England was awesome in last week's Sunday night game, a national breakout for Drake Maye.
Maye didn't find the end zone against Buffalo, but he played a great game. He consistently kept plays alive with his legs and got creative off-script, including the first play of the final winning drive when he refused to go down on a sack, bought time, and hit Stefon Diggs for a huge gain.
Diggs is emerging as a true go-to WR1 for Maye. We'll be betting him as well in this section.
There's a lot of buzz backing the Saints +3.5 this week, but that feels like an overcorrection.
Spencer Rattler has been better than expected, but the Saints defense has been worse than expected. New Orleans ranks bottom-4 by DVOA defensively, including bottom-4 against the pass.
All five Saints opponents this season have thrown for multiple touchdowns. Maye has passed for multiple TDs in three of five games this season, that 60% hit rate up almost double from his 4-of-11 rate (36%) as a rookie.
This prop has a 100% hit rate against the Saints this season. Let's hope Maye keeps the fireworks coming.
Stefon Diggs Over 57.5 Receiving Yards; 80+ Receiving Yards (+229); 100+ Receiving Yards (+477)
Many frustrated fantasy football owners wrote off Stefon Diggs after a slow start, and it's easy to see why.
In Weeks 1-3, Diggs was overlooked and forgotten. He averaged just 4.3 receptions for 37 yards on five targets per game; he didn't look like a central part of New England's offense.
But Diggs broke out with six catches for 101 yards against the Panthers in Week 4, then looked like the Diggs of old with 10 catches for 146 yards on 12 targets on Sunday night against the Bills.
In Weeks 4 and 5, Diggs saw almost double the amount of targets and receptions he saw those first three games, and he's up 3.3x in receiving yards!
This was always the expectation for Diggs, if you paid attention to the medical experts. Diggs is coming off a torn ACL, and players typically take around a month to ramp up from injury before hitting their usual production.
That's almost exactly how long it took Diggs before these two big games, and he can probably play more snaps going forward.
The Saints' pass defense has been bad, especially against opposing WR1s. New Orleans has already allowed games of 5/71, 5/89, 5/96 and 5/69 against opposing WR1s this season, five catches for each and an average of 81 yards a game on seven targets.
Last year, in 13 games against true WR1s, the Saints allowed an average of 6.6 receptions for 92 yards on 10 targets.
It feels like books have yet to catch up on Diggs as a true WR1 for the Patriots, and this line of 57.5 (BetRivers) feels at least 10 yards too low.
Since the start of last season, true WR1s against the Saints have at least five catches and 61 yards in 16-of-17 games, a 94% hit rate!
I prefer yards to receptions with Diggs, since he's also flashing his YAC ability to get the big play, with catches of 30+ yards in each of the last two games.
Let's play the escalator, too.
WR1s have had 79 receiving yards or more in 11-of-17 games against the Saints since the start of last season, almost two-thirds. So, we'll play 80+ yards at +229 (DraftKings).
New Orleans has yet to allow a 100-yard game this season, but Diggs has done that two games in a row and the Saints did allow that number to four WR1s last year. Nibble 100+ yards at +477 (DraftKings).
Picks: Drake Maye Over 1.5 Passing TDs (-105); Stefon Diggs Over 57.5 Receiving Yards + Escalators
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Cowboys vs Panthers
For a second straight week, I strongly considered the Cowboys as a short road favorite. The offense looks legit, and Dak Prescott is typically great as a favorite and against sub-.500 teams in particular.
The Cowboys should score. But they might allow plenty of points to the Panthers, as bad as their defense is playing. And with a total at 49.5, this could end up in the running for highest-scoring game of the week.
Could this finally be the Tetairoa McMillan breakout game?
Carolina's star rookie WR has looked the part on the field, but he has yet to put up a huge line. However, this matchup sets up well for some big time production.
The Cowboys rank bottom-3 in the NFL both against the pass and overall by Defensive DVOA. This pass defense just has no shot right now, especially against WR1s.
Malik Nabers had nine catches for 167 yards and two scores against Dallas. Rome Odunze had 62 yards and a TD. Romeo Doubs found the end zone three times. Garrett Wilson had 71 yards and a score.
All four of those WRs scored a touchdown, with Nabers scoring twice and Doubs three times. Dallas allowed a TD to 8-of-17 opposing WR1s last season too, almost half of them.
McMillan's receptions and yardage lines have been bet up past value, so I'm investing in a touchdown or two. He's a big target and should be Bryce Young's first look in the red zone, and we could see a whole bunch of touchdowns in a potential shootout.
I'll back McMillan to score an anytime touchdown at +150 (Caesars) and put a bit on two TDs at +1200 (FanDuel), with plenty of scores to go around.
This might also be the spot to buy a McMillan ticket for Offensive Rookie of the Year at +1300 (ESPN Bet).
Emeka Egbuka is the clear favorite, but he could slow down once Mike Evans and Chris Godwin return, and the field looks pretty wide open after Egbuka, with Ashton Jeanty second in name only.
A big game from McMillan should finally get him the attention he deserves.
Picks: Tet McMillan Anytime TD (+150); 2+ TDs (+1200); To Win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+1300)
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Titans vs Raiders
Early this week, I was afraid I was going to have to hold my nose and take the Titans +6. The Raiders should not be 6-point favorites against anyone, and sure enough, that line is down to -4 now at most books.
But if the Raiders are home favorites, that means they're going to have to score some points and protect a lead, and that sets up nicely for Ashton Jeanty.
The Titans defense ranks bottom-quarter of the league in many metrics, and it's been especially bad against the run at 31st in DVOA.
Tennessee allows the third-most rushing yards to RBs, and the Titans have allowed eight rushing TDs to RBs already. That's the most in the league, and it would be nine if Emeri Demarcado held onto the football!
The Titans have allowed at least one RB to score a touchdown in all five games this season, including two or more in three straight.
I'll pass on Jeanty's rushing yards line at 72.5, since he's gone under that in four of five games. Jeanty is getting the workload, but not finding a ton of yardage behind a poor offensive line that is badly missing Kolton Miller.
Jeanty is on pace to run 280 times for just 1,200 yards, and he absolutely should not be the second favorite for Rookie of the Year right now.
He is scoring, though.
The Raiders have eight offensive touchdowns this season, and Jeanty has scored half of them — two as a rusher and two as a receiver.
Someone's gotta score for the Raiders, and we'll take it however Jeanty gets there.
Play Jeanty's Anytime TD odds at -143 (Caesars), with a portion of your bet on two TDs at +430 (FanDuel).
Picks: Ashton Jeanty Anytime TD (-143); 2+ TDs (+430)
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Lions vs Chiefs
I really wanted to bet on the Lions +2.5 here in what looks like one of the games of the year.
The Chiefs play on short rest after a letdown loss on Monday night, and there's too much obvious narrative for, "It's the Chiefs, they can't fall to 2-4" nonsense.
The Ravens "couldn't fall" to 1-4 either, but here we are — sports are weird sometimes, and football is hard.
Speaking of the Ravens, everyone always gets excited for that matchup with the Chiefs, expecting Baltimore to dominate in the trenches, run the football on Kansas City, control the clock, limit mistakes, and keep Patrick Mahomes on the sidelines.
The Ravens never remember to actually do that against the Chiefs — but isn't that the perfect script for Detroit?
The Chiefs defense hasn't shown a consistent ability to get off the field on third downs, and the Lions will want to keep Mahomes sidelined by sustaining long drives.
Are we sure Detroit is capable of that, though?
For all the talk of the Lions as the best team in the league, they're road underdogs against a sub-.500 team for a reason. Detroit was dominated by the Packers in the opener, but then beat up on the Bears, Ravens, Bengals and Browns.
The Baltimore win looks far less impressive in hindsight, given what other teams have done to the Ravens, and those other three opponents have at least one unit that's been terrible.
What have the Lions proven?
The injuries are the other big concern with Detroit, particularly cluster injuries on the offensive line and in the secondary.
Taylor Decker is out again as Detroit's young interior continues to struggle some. That could hurt the Lions' ability to control the game via the run. The Lions are also without both of their top corners, Terrion Arnold and D.J. Reed.
That's enough reason to stay away from picking the Lions, but it sets up for a great spot for under trends.
The Lions want to keep the Chiefs offense sidelined — but Kansas City will want to do the same against Detroit's offense!
Oftentimes, when two great offenses match up, we expect fireworks. But the reality is that both teams just want to bleed out the clock and try to give their guys the ball last and a chance for the win.
Both of these teams are capable of sustaining long, grueling drives. The Chiefs are running the ball better lately, and should continue to find success in their short passing game, which is effectively an extension of their run game.
Both teams are seeing high Success Rates offensively, which sets up for long 10-, 12-, 14-play drives.
This is the sort of game where we could get to halftime and both teams have scored on every possession, but we've only had five or six possessions and it's 13-10 in a competitive, ruthlessly efficient affair.
In the end, this is a trends pick as much as anything else.
This total was 48.5 on the lookahead line, but has been bet up all week.
Since 2017, NFL totals over 52 that rise by more than a point are 59% to the under. High totals have also been a spot to go under with Jared Goff, the most profitable active QB at 61% to the under in games with a total at 51 or above.
Non-Thursday primetime unders have hit at a 61% clip since 2019, and Mahomes home unders are 62% for his career.
We could also see a windy game, and games with winds of at least 9 mph are 61% to the under over the last half decade.
This will be sweaty and uncomfortable, considering how good both offenses are, but this is a Luck Rankings under, too. So, let's grab Under 53 and sweat it out.
The last key number going up is 54, and it's doubtful this total gets past that at this point. So, 53 feels like a peak to grab before the total drops.
Pick: Under 53
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Packers vs Cardinals (Week 7 Lookahead Pick)
Sometimes with a lookahead pick, you just have to keep it simple and look at what we expect this weekend.
The Packers are rested home favorites of two touchdowns, playing against a Bengals team so desperate for points that they turned to Joe Flacco.
Green Bay is a massive favorite and should roll and remind everyone of its status as a Super Bowl contender.
The Cardinals, on the other hand, are touchdown underdogs in Indianapolis and expected to lose.
We still don't know if Kyler Murray is healthy enough to play now or next week, and if he does play, the risk for re-injury is high.
If the Cards lose and the Packers roll, this line likely reopens around -6 or even -7 on Sunday night — and that's about where it should be for two teams in different weight classes.
Come on, the Colts are -7.5 to Arizona, but the rested Packers are -4.5? Make it make sense.
Five, six and seven are all key numbers these days. There's value grabbing this at -4.5 before that entire range.
We're never getting the Packers -4.5 again after Sunday's games.
Pick: Packers -4.5
Brandon's Week 6 Betting Card
- Steelers -5.5
- Cardinals-Colts Under 47.5
- Drake Maye Over 1.5 Passing TDs
- Stefon Diggs Over 57.5 Receiving Yards + Escalators
- Tet McMillan Anytime TD (+150); 2+ TDs (+1200)
- Ashton Jeanty Anytime TD (-143); 2+ TDs (+430)
- Lions-Chiefs Under 53
Brandon's Week 7 Lookahead Pick
- Packers -4.5
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