NFL Week 6 Predictions, Luck Rankings: Bears vs. Vikings Is the Luck-Based Game
Adam Bettcher/Getty Images. Pictured: Kirk Cousins.
Our Action Network Luck Rankings are out for Week 6.
As a quick recap, the unlucky team from the Action Network Luck Rankings is 103-59-6 (63.1%) against the closing spread (ATS) since the start of 2018 if the unlucky team in a matchup meets at least one of the following two criteria:
- Is at least 24 places lower than their opponent in the Luck Rankings
- Has a luck percentage at least 50% worse than their opponent
Unlucky teams in Luck Matchups are 7-5-2 ATS on the year after the Carolina Panthers failed to cover last week against the Detroit Lions.
Luck Totals, on the other hand, have started the year 1-3 after the first Luck Total win on Thursday night as the Chiefs and Broncos (-13.8 Luck Total) went well under their pregame total of 47.5. Overall Luck Totals are 28-15 overall since 2018 (65.1%).
Games show significant value on the over or under if they meet one of the following criteria after Week 3:
- Luck Total above 10 (over)
- Luck Total below -10 (under)
There is one other game this week that meets the Luck Total criteria.
NFL Luck Rankings Games for Week 6
This game features a Luck Total of -13.1 putting it in the Luck Under category.
Because we're deeper into the season, we can look at games from Week 6 or later and extend the thresholds. Games with a Luck Total above 9.5 or below -9.5 in Week 6 and beyond are 20-6-1 (73.2%) since the 2018 season. If we look at unders specifically, they are 11-5-1 (71.9%) in this same time frame.
This game also features the potential for bad weather. Winds are forecast around 15-20 mph around kickoff, with gusts around 30 mph. There's also a chance of rain.
Both teams contribute relatively equally to this luck total, with the Bears coming in at -6.5 on their Luck Team Total, and the Vikings at -6.6.
On Thursday, the Chiefs and Broncos played to a 19-8 scoreline after having a Luck Total of -13.8 in similar weather conditions.
This game is +1200 to be the lowest-scoring game on Sunday at DraftKings. The Bears are 23-1 to be the lowest-scoring team in the NFL at FanDuel, while the Vikings are 35-1 in that category at DraftKings.
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