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NFL Week 8 Main Slate Player Props: Take Advantage of Depleted Receiving Corps (Sunday, Nov. 1)

NFL Week 8 Main Slate Player Props: Take Advantage of Depleted Receiving Corps (Sunday, Nov. 1) article feature image

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Deonte Harris.

NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.

This is where the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool comes in handy.

We leverage prop bets from across the industry against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past five seasons. Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 representing the largest betting edge.

Let’s break down five prop bets providing value for Sunday’s NFL Week 8 main slate.

Kansas City Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire

The Pick: Under 70.5 rushing yards

FantasyLabs Grade: 10 out of 10

The Chiefs are expected to absolutely wallop the Jets this week. The Jets have been horrendous to start the year, posting a mark of 0-7 straight up and 1-6 against the spread, and the Chiefs are currently favored by a whopping 19.5 points, as of Saturday night.

A spread that high should theoretically be good for a running back. Teams run more when they have the lead, and NFL squads have increased their run rate to 63% when leading by at least three scores (per Sharp Football Stats).

That said, there are still a few concerns with CEH this week. For starters, the Chiefs don’t run the ball nearly as much as some of the other teams in the league when they have a big lead. They’ve run the ball on just 51% of plays when leading by three scores, which is the sixth-lowest mark in the league. Additionally, the Jets’ rush defense has easily been the most effective part of their team this year, ranking 14th in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA.

Finally, we have to consider the impact that Le’Veon Bell will have in this matchup. He saw six carries last week to Edwards-Helaire’s eight, so this could be close to a 50-50 split moving forwards. If that continues, it will be tough for either back to deliver a big performance even in a perfect game script.

New York Jets WR Braxton Berrios

The Pick: Over 3.5 receptions (+100)

FantasyLabs Grade: 9 out of 10

On the other side of this matchup, the Jets have a lot of snaps to replace at the WR position. Jamison Crowder will miss his second straight contest, and Breshad Perriman will join him on the sidelines. Perriman played on 95% of the Jets’ offensive snaps last week before going out with a concussion.

Berrios was already highly involved last week — he played on 84% of the snaps and finished with seven targets — and he has a chance to play an even larger role vs. the Chiefs.

He also saw 38 of his 48 snaps in the slot last week per Pro Football Focus, and Sam Darnold loves to pepper the slot receiver with targets. Crowder has been his favorite target since he joined the Jets in 2019, and he’s seen at least 10 targets in all four games this year. Berrios may not be a direct replacement for Crowder, but he should still see a healthy handful of opportunities.

New England Patriots WR Damiere Byrd

The Pick: Over 2.5 receptions (-152)

FantasyLabs Grade: 10 out of 10

It’s somewhat scary to back any part of the Patriots’ passing offense at the moment. Cam Newton was dreadful in his last game, throwing for just 98 yards with three interceptions, and he was ultimately benched in favor of Jarrett Stidham. Newton will remain the Patriots’ starting QB this week vs. the Bills, but he doesn’t look like the same guy who started the season red hot.

Still, this line is simply way too low for Byrd. He led the Patriots with a 92% snap share last week, and he has been on the field a bunch for the majority of the season. That hasn’t led to a ton of success from a statistical standpoint, but he’s still logged at least three receptions in four of his past five games.

He should also benefit from the Patriots’ current injury situation at WR. Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry have both been ruled out, and they rank first and second on the team in targets. Byrd should absorb at least a few of those this week.

Byrd should be able to take advantage of his extra opportunities vs. the Bills, who rank merely 18th in pass defense DVOA this season.

New Orleans Saints WR Deonte Harris

The Pick: Over 2.5 receptions (-152)

FantasyLabs Grade: 10 out of 10

The Jets and Patriots aren’t the only teams dealing with a bunch of WR injuries at the moment. You can add the Saints to that list, as well. Michael Thomas will miss his sixth consecutive game, while Emmanuel Sanders will miss his second-straight after testing positive for COVID-19. Even Marquez Callaway — who caught eight of 10 targets for the shorthanded Saints in Week 7 — has been ruled out for this week’s matchup vs. the Bears. That leaves Tre’Quan Smith and Harris to handle most of the snaps at the WR position.

Harris has been used primarily as a special teamer and gadget player in the past, but he did see a slight uptick in snaps last week. That was with Callaway playing on 73% of the Saints’ offensive plays, so he has the potential to see the field even more this week.

Even if he doesn’t, expect the Saints to draw up some plays to get the ball in his hands. He saw five targets last week and finished with four catches for 46 yards and a touchdown.

San Francisco 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo

The Pick: Over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-124)

FantasyLabs Grade: 9 out of 10

Garoppolo has not been all that impressive this season from a statistical standpoint, but that hasn’t stopped him from throwing for at least two touchdowns in three of his first five games. His underlying metrics are also somewhat impressive — he ranks 14th in touchdown percentage and adjusted yards per attempt — so his numbers have simply been kept in check by modest volume.

That said, I don’t expect that to continue this week vs. the Seahawks.

Seattle has been explosive offensively this season, and they currently rank first in the league in points per game. They’ve scored at least 27 points in all six games this season, so the 49ers are going to have to pass the ball to try to keep up offensively.

Luckily, the 49ers should have no problem in that department. The Seahawks have been dreadful on defense this season, particularly against the pass. They rank just 30th in pass defense DVOA and have allowed at least two passing touchdowns to five of their first six opponents. The only exception was Newton, who was able to score two touchdowns on the ground. That really isn’t an option for Garoppolo, so I’m expecting him to pick up right where every other quarterback has left off vs. the Seahawks.

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