Waiting for the revenge of the underdogs? Time to see if that comes in Week 9 after favorites had their best week against the spread in 40 years last week.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's Week 9 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, Oct. 28, at 2 p.m. ET. Credit to Bet Labs and SDQL for a lot of the betting queries.
Top NFL Things To Know
Chalk Rules
Favorites Rolling
Favorites went 11-2 ATS (84.6%) in Week 8 last week. That was the best win pct for favorites in a single week since December of 1985 (also went 11-2 ATS). All 11 favorites covered the spread by 7+ pts in Week 8, the most in a single week in the last 30 years.
Since Week 6, favorites are 33-10 (76.7%) straight up, and they are 83-37-1 SU (69.2%), the best win pct for favorites through eight weeks since 2013. Favs are 67-54 ATS (55.4%, +$697), the most profitable start through 8 weeks for favorites since 2009.
Since the start of last season, favorites have won 70.4% of games. A $100 bettor would be up $1,266 just taking favorites to win (+3.1% ROI). In the 23-year history of Bet Labs database, we've never had back-to-back seasons where favorites were profitable on the moneyline.
In the last 14 weeks of regular season action, favorites are 155-58-1 SU (72.8%), winning by 7.4 PPG. Favs of 6+ pts are 68-10-1 and favs of 8+ pts are 26-1 SU.
Through The Roof
High Totals
Cardinals/Cowboys: 54
Bears/Bengals: 52.5
Chiefs/Bills: 52.5
Colts/Steelers: 50.5
Ravens/Dolphins: 50.5
This could be the first week since 2021 (Week 10) with five totals of 50 points or more on the closing line. 49ers/Giants is currently sitting at 48.5, have to see if that gets up a point or two. In the last two weeks, overs are 18-10, including 43-29-1 since Week 4.
Lasting Impact
Jet Fuel
Bengals somehow lost to the Jets at home last week and now face the Bears at home.
The Jets don’t exactly get you prepared for your next opponent well. Teams after playing the Jets are 0-7 ATS this season, including 18-37 ATS over the last four seasons — the worst mark in the NFL by far.
Indiana Jones
Colts Expectations
Some Colts superlatives:
• Colts have scored 270 pts with a +116 point differential through eight games. Since the 1970 merger, here are the QBs to accomplish this feat: Daniel Jones, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and John Elway.
• Not only are the Colts 7-1 SU, but they are 6-2 ATS, covering the number by 10.9 PPG, the best mark for any team at this point since the 2019 49ers.
• The Colts' win total was 7.5 entering the season — the only recent examples of a win total below 8 starting 7-1 SU or better: 2014 Cardinals and 2013 Chiefs.
Total Chaos
Colts, Ravens On Brink
Speaking of the Colts' win total, both Indy and the Ravens can actually clinch their win total this week — the Colts their over with a win and Ravens their under with a loss.
The Ravens would be the first team since the division realignment in 2002 with a win total of 11+ to cash their win total under before Week 10. Closest was the 2005 Eagles, who cashed their under in Week 10.
Colts would be the 9th team since division realignment in 2002 to eclipse their win total before Week 10 and just the second team to eclipse a win total of 7.5 or more, joining the 2013 Chiefs, who started 9-0 after a win total of 7.5
Maye's World
A Drake Performance
Drake Maye's world. Entering Week 5, he was 100-1 to win the NFL MVP. Now, entering Week 9, he is down to 5-1 to win MVP behind just Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen.
Maye has 2,026 pass yds with a 75.2% completion pct through 8 games. The only other QB to have 2,000+ with 75%+ through 8 games was Drew Brees in 2018.
Buffalo Dog
Bills Getting Points
Since 2020, Josh Allen has closed as a home underdog five times in the regular season and playoffs. The Bills are 4-1 SU/ATS in those games, with their only loss coming to the … Chiefs.
Dak's Spot
Primetime Favorites
Overall in his career, Dak Prescott has dominated night games. He is 29-15-1 SU and 26-18-1 ATS, including 2-0 ATS this season and 14-7 ATS since 2021 (2nd-best mark among QBs w/ at least 8 starts, behind just Jared Goff).
Since the start of the 2020 season, Dak and the Cowboys are a perfect 13-0 SU as a favorite at night, beating their opponents by a ridiculous 18.3 PPG.
Every NFL Game For Week 9
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➤John Harbaugh has faced a Mike McDaniel-coached team with Lamar Jackson as his QB twice, back in 2022 and 2023. The Ravens scored a combined 94 pts in the two games.
➤ Under Mike McDaniel, the Dolphins have played on Thursday Night Football four times, and they are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in those games. The only spread they covered was earlier this season as 11.5-pt dogs in Buffalo.
In the four losses, the Dolphins are losing by 14 PPG. Since 2000, only four head coaches are 0-4 SU or worse when playing on a Thursday:
Dennis Allen: 0-6 SU
Adam Gase: 0-5 SU
Mike McDaniel: 0-4 SU
Pat Shurmur: 0-4 SU
McDaniel has coached five career games in which the Dolphins are underdogs on short rest; Miami is 0-5 SU and allows 29.2 PPG.
➤ Underdogs on Thursday are 3-5 SU this season. In the 19 games on a Thursday last season, only four underdogs won outright. Seven total outright wins for dogs on Thursday games is the modern record.
➤ John Harbaugh has coached 16 total games on a Thursday with the Ravens, and he is 11-5 SU … 10-1 SU as a favorite and 1-4 SU as an underdog.
Recently, short rest for Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson hasn’t been great, going just 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS since the start of last season.
➤ Tua and the Dolphins upset the Falcons last week as 7-point underdogs – the biggest upset of Tua’s pro career from a spread perspective.
Dolphins are actually 7-2 ATS the game after pulling any upset under Tua, including 5-1 ATS in his last six games in this spot.
The good thing for Tua is Miami. When they are running hot, it usually continues. They are 24-16-1 ATS after scoring 21+ pts, 21-13-1 ATS after 24+ pts and 8-4 ATS after 33+ pts.
➤So far this season, the Dolphins have played twice in primetime, facing the Jets and Bills, and they covered the spread in both games. Prior to this 2-game ATS win streak in night games, Miami was 3-10 ATS in their previous 13 night games. Tua is 6-10 ATS in night games, including 1-4 ATS at home.
The Dolphins haven’t covered even three night games in the same season since all the way back in 1995.
➤ When Tua has been listed as an underdog in primetime games at night, he is 1-7 SU
In the last decade, here are the QBs with one win or less and six losses or more at night as an underdog:
Tua Tagovailoa: 1-7 SU
Brock Osweiler: 0-6 SU
Geno Smith: 1-9 SU
Joe Burrow: 0-7 SU
Andy Dalton: 0-9 SU
Daniel Jones: 1-15 SU
➤ We are getting into Derrick Henry territory, and after last week, the Dolphins' rush defense got a break against the Falcons (somehow).
Derrick Henry's yards per attempt in his career:
September: 4.3 – 0.59 TD/game, 49.6% rush success rate
October: 4.7 – 0.8 TD/game, 48.5% SR
November: 5.0 – 0.81 TD/game, 52.7% SR
December: 5.2 – 0.88 TD/game, 53.1% SR
January: 5.4 – 0.93 TD/game, 50.3% SR
Dolphins have still allowed 35 rushes of 10+ yds (T-2nd most in NFL).
➤ This will be the 5th career NFL start for Caleb Williams on a road trip – 2nd consecutive road game or later. The Bears are 1-4 SU/ATS in those games, with their first win with Caleb coming on the road in Washington earlier this season (which does mean he’s 1-0 with Ben Johnson). Opponents have scored 21 pts or more in all five games with Chicago on a road trip.
���Same old problems for Caleb Williams. His completion pct above expectation is still -7.1%, the worst mark in the NFL and his average time to throw is 3.16 seconds, also the worst mark in the NFL.
➤ Caleb Williams has faced a defense allowing 27+ PPG eight times in his early NFL career, and the Bears are 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS in those games, with Chicago scoring 21 pts or more in five of the seven games. This trend went sideways last week with Chicago scoring 16 pts and losing to the Ravens.
➤ The Jets don’t exactly get you prepared for your next opponent well. Teams after playing the Jets are 0-7 ATS this season, including 18-37 ATS over the last four seasons — the worst mark in the NFL by far.
➤ Some notes on the current Bears season.
- They own the best turnover differential in the NFL at +10.
- They have 6+ penalties in all seven games, including 11 last week. The only NFC team with more penalties this year is Dallas.
- Bears went 1-3 in the red zone last week, falling below 50% on the season. For reference, Lions are at 72% RZ this year, they were at 69% last year, even Chicago was at 62% last year.
➤ Bears fell behind last week by double-digits late in the third quarter, which has seemed like a death sentence for them lately. They are 1-27 SU in their last 28 games when trailing by 10+ pts at any point, with their only win coming against the Titans.
➤ Ja’Marr Chase leads the NFL in targets with 99 in his first eight games. Chase has 42 targets in his last two games and 54 in his last three games.
His 42 targets in a 2-game span and 54 targets in a 3-game span are both the most since 1980 – Isaac Bruce had 39 and 53 targets in two and three-game spans in 1995.
➤ The over is 4-0 in Bengals home games this year and 10-2 to the over in the last two seasons – in that last 12-game span, Bengals home games are going over the total by 13.7 PPG.
In the last 15 Bengals home games dating back to Dec. 1 2023, the over is 13-2. In that same span, Buffalo also has 13 home overs but five losses.
With Flacco, the over is 3-0 in Bengals games, with the total going over by 17.7 PPG.
➤ Since the start of last season, the Bengals are 2-3 SU in games where they score 35 pts or more – the rest of the NFL is 84-6 SU.
When the Bengals score more than 30 pts, they are just 5-5 SU since the start of last year. The rest of the NFL is 149-17.
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➤ In Jared Goff’s career, he is 7-3 SU and 8-2 ATS vs. the Vikings – his second-most profitable opponent ATS.
When Goff has played the Vikings as QB of Detroit, he is 8-0 ATS, the best mark of any QB in the NFC North vs. Minnesota in the last 20 years.
➤The Lions and Vikings last faced off in Week 18 last year with the division on the line. The over/under closed at 56.5. Now the total is sitting around 47.5.
When Detroit plays a home game with a total below 50, they are 18-8 to the over under Dan Campbell and going even further back, they are 40-21 to the over since 2015.
➤ Under Kevin O’Connell, the Vikings are 5-8-1 ATS when playing a game on any extended rest after the loss to the Eagles in Week 7, including just 2-8-1 ATS when he is an underdog or a favorite of 3 pts or less.
➤ Lions were at home last week against the Bucs and then had their bye week. The home-to-home on extended rest has a bit of an overvalue.
Since 2010, teams to play at home and then play at home again on 10+ days rest are 79-100-4 ATS (44%).
➤On any extended prep time in his career as a starter, Goff is 21-11-2 ATS, including 14-4-1 SU and 15-4 ATS with the Lions, covering the spread by 6.4 PPG.
Lions have scored 88 total pts off their regular-season bye over the last two seasons.
➤The Lions have won 29 consecutive games outright when leading entering the 4th quarter.
Under Dan Campbell, the Lions started 0-2-1 SU in games leading entering the 4th quarter. They are 39-2 SU in their last 41 games, leading entering the 4th.
➤Time for a defensive bounce back? Going to be tough against Detroit.
Since 2021, Vikings are 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS after allowing 28+ pts in b2b games – they are 0-2 SU/ATS vs. Lions in that spot and 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS vs. all other teams.
➤ Vikings allowed 28 pts against the Eagles and then just allowed 37 pts to the Chargers in L.A. Here are the Vikings' last four road games after allowing 28+ pts in their previous game:
L 37-10 at Chargers
L 27-9 at Rams
L 30-20 at Rams
L 30-20 at Lions
➤ Vikings on a road trip. Lions on a homestand. This season, teams on the road trip are actually 4-2 ATS. Last 20 years, team on a road trip vs. team on a homestand, when game is in-division, 88-65-5 ATS (58%).
➤ Packers are just 2-5 this season for their first-half team total – just starting slow out of the box this year. Last year was more of the same, just an even 9-9 for their first-half team total.
At least recently, the Packers have seen a second-half surge, scoring 28, 21, 17 and 27 pts in the 2H of their last four games.
➤ The Packers play on Monday Night Football next week against the Eagles. Since 2019, teams with MNF on deck are actually covering the spread at a 58% rate at 119-86-1 ATS, over .500 ATS in six of the last seven seasons.
➤ The Packers' toughest battles at Lambeau Field have always come in-division. Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers are just 12-7 SU (11-8 ATS) at home vs. the NFC North, but 31-6 SU (24-13 ATS) at home against all other divisions.
In the last decade, LaFleur's 24-13 ATS mark is the best of any head coach.
➤Pick your spot.
- Panthers are coming off a home game vs. Buffalo. Teams after facing the Bills are 15-8 ATS over the last two seasons, including 11-4 ATS in the last 15 games in this spot.
- Packers have the Eagles on deck next week. Since the middle of last season, teams facing Philly the week before are 13-5 SU/ATS.
➤ Bryce Young just got his 2nd career road win SU in his last road start, two weeks ago against the Jets. In his career, Bryce has started just four road games in sub-70-degree weather. Carolina is 0-4 SU, scoring just 39 total pts in the four games.
Bryce’s next mission is to beat a team above .500 on the road. He is 0-7 SU, losing by 17.7 PPG.
➤ If the Panthers start Andy Dalton this week with Bryce Young still nursing an injury –
Matt LaFleur and the Packers have been a nightmare for backup QBs. LaFleur’s teams are 17-2 SU, but just 10-9 ATS, facing a backup QB.
➤ The Panthers got their doors blown off last week (as did about half the teams). Underdogs of 4 pts or more off a loss of 28+ pts are 120-78-3 ATS (61%).
➤Since 2023, Bryce has started 35 total games, and Andy has started seven games. Here is a comp.
BY: 10-25 SU, 17-17-1 ATS, -2.9 ATS margin, 55th EPA/play, 58th success rate
AD: 1-6 SU, 1-6 ATS, -10.2 ATS margin, 49th EPA/play, 48th success rate
Since the start of 2023, 58 different QBs have started at least six games; Dalton’s one ATS cover is the fewest of the group.
In Dalton’s last seven starts dating back to the start of the 2023 season, the over is 6-1, going over the total by 9.4 PPG, and Dalton is 1-6 against the 2nd-half spread.
➤Since the calendar turned to 2025, the Packers have been favorites of 7 pts or more four times; Green Bay is 0-4 ATS in those games.
Overall, GB is 8-13 ATS as above a 7-point favorite, failing to cover the spread by 2.4 PPG, including going 1-3 ATS with Jordan Love in this spot.
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➤ The Titans' ATS ineptitude has no bounds, it seems.
They are…
5-23-1 ATS in their last 29 games
7-27-1 ATS last 35
9-30-1 ATS last 40
13-35-2 ATS last 50
Titans are currently in the worst 50-game ATS stretch in terms of win pct since the … 2016 Titans. Before that, it was the 2006 Raiders.
➤The Titans have lost 11 consecutive home games against the spread — the longest home ATS losing streak for any team since the 1970 merger.
Titans haven’t covered the spread at home since November of 2024. Since the merger in 1970, only six teams have lost 10 consecutive home games ATS; only this Titans team has lost 11 straight home games ATS.
➤Only once in the NFL has Jim Harbaugh closed as a double-digit favorite on the road. Back in 2011-12, the 49ers lost to the Rams outright.
With the Chargers, Harbaugh has closed as a road favorite 11 times – L.A. is 8-3 SU and 7-4 ATS in those games, including 10-2 ATS as a road favorite on the East Coast.
➤Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers head east this week to face the Titans. Harbaugh is 25-8 SU and 24-8-1 ATS when playing in the EST or CST as a head coach, including 16-3 SU and 15-4 ATS in the EST.
When Harbaugh takes his team to CST or EST on extended rest, they are 5-0 SU, winning by 15.8 PPG.
➤Under Harbaugh, he has started just three players at QB with the Chargers and 49ers – Alex Smith, Colin Kaepernick and Justin Herbert.
All 3 QBs are above .500 ATS, which is a theme with Harbaugh.
Alex Smith: 18-8-1 ATS
Justin Herbert: 16-9-1 ATS
Colin Kaepernick: 24-19-2 ATS
➤Joe Alt is important to the Chargers and the pass game. Just how important is this season? When Alt starts and finishes a game, the Chargers are 4-0 SU.
Alt on Field: 8 yds/pass att, 9 TD, 2 INT, 107 pass rtg
Alt off Field: 6.7 yds/pass att, 7 TD, 5 INT, 89 pass rtg
When Alt plays 50 snaps or more for the Chargers, L.A. is 14-5 SU, when he either doesn’t play or plays fewer, they are 2-5 SU.
➤Cam Ward has been sacked 34 times this season, the highest mark of any QB in the NFL.
Since sacks became official in 1982, Ward is the 10th-most sacks at the 8-game mark of a season. Of the 11 QBs with 34+ sacks, Ward owns the 3rd-fewest pass TDs of the group (ahead of just Andrew Walter and Paul McDonald).
Most Sacks by QB in First Year Through 8 Games
45 – David Carr, 2002
37 – Andrew Walter, 2006
34 – Cam Ward, 2025
➤ Entering Week 9, here are the updated odds to win NFL MVP and the odds they entered the season with:
Patrick Mahomes: +140 (+650)
Josh Allen: +350 (+600)
Drake Maye: +500 (+5000)
Maye’s MVP odds were as high as 100-1 entering Weeks 4 and 5 before cratering over the last few weeks. In the last 15 years, we’ve only seen two players win MVP at longer than 50-1 odds entering the season: Matt Ryan in 2016 (75-1) and Cam Newton in 2015 (52-1).
Maye has 2,026 pass yds with a 75.2% completion pct through 8 games. The only other QB to have 2,000+ with 75%+ through 8 games was Drew Brees in 2018.
➤The Patriots are on a 5-game SU and ATS win streak, the longest active streak in the NFL.
It is their first 5-game SU/ATS win streak since 2021 under Mac Jones (they had a 7-game SU/ATS win streak).
Beware of a certain fraudulent nature. Since 2018, teams that are on a 4+ game SU/ATS win streak, who didn’t make the playoffs the year prior, are 15-27-1 ATS, including 2-15-1 ATS since 2022.
➤This series goes deeper than just 28-3. Dating back to 2000, the Falcons have lost seven consecutive games both SU and ATS vs. the Patriots.
Last time Patriots lost to the Falcons, New England’s head coach was Pete Carroll and their QB was Drew Bledsoe in 1998.
➤Both the Falcons and Colts head to Berlin, Germany, next week to face off in the first International Game in that country.
Teams with a neutral-site game on deck are 59-35 SU (63%) over the last decade, and they also cover 56% of those games.
➤When two teams meet, both allowing opposing offenses to score 21 PPG or less on the season, the under is hitting just 46.6% of the time in the last decade, with the games actually going over the total by 2.3 PPG, including 11-13 to the under this season. This week, that is Falcons/Patriots and Chiefs/Bills.
➤In outdoor games this season, the Falcons are 0-2 SU and ATS, losing those games outright by 20 PPG to the 49ers and Panthers. In outdoor games since 2020, the Falcons are 11-18 SU.
➤When the Patriots lead by a TD or more (6+ pts) at any point in the game, they are 6-0 SU/ATS this season, the only team undefeated both SU and ATS in that spot this year.
➤ Falcons got blown out at home as big favorites vs. the Dolphins last week. Teams after losing as a favorite of 7 pts or more are 80-57-3 ATS (58%) since 2015, including 21-13 ATS over the last three seasons.
➤ The market sometimes loses faith. When a team was a favorite of 7 pts or more in their previous game and then listed as an underdog in their next game, they have covered 55.1% of games in the last 20 years, including 55.8% when that game is on the road. That is the Falcons after losing to Miami last week.
➤ The Patriots have started fast lately. Under Drake Maye, they have won five straight 1st halves on the moneyline, including 8-1 1H ML in their last nine games dating back to last season.
➤ The Patriots' rush defense has been absurd this year. Here is how their lead backs have performed vs. NE. They are the first team since the 1970 merger not to allow an RB to eclipse 50 rush yds in the first eight games.
Judkins: 9 for 19
Spears: 5 for 22
Kamara: 10 for 31
Cook: 15 for 49
Hubbard: 10 for 49
Warren: 18 for 47
Achane: 11 for 30
Jeanty: 19 for 38
Total: 97 for 285 (2.9)
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➤This will be the third game San Francisco will play now without both Nick Bosa and Fred Warner. The 49ers are 1-1 SU/ATS, allowing just 10 pts vs. the Falcons and 26 to the Texans.
The 49ers were 22nd in EPA/play, 27th in success rate, and 23rd in dropback SR in the first six weeks of the season – so far through two weeks, SF is 19th, 17th and 21st in those three categories. Holding steady. SF is now 1-2 SU without Fred Warner and 8-15 SU without Nick Bosa.
➤Christian McCaffrey is having a season through the air. He has 56 receptions (2nd) on 74 targets (3rd) through eight games – the highest marks for a RB in both categories since 1980.
This season, McCaffrey is 6-1 in his receiving yards over, after going under by a few yards for the first time last week.
➤No Malik Nabers. No Cam Scattebo. Jaxson Dart is still the favorite to win Offensive Rookie of the Year entering this week.
Entering the season, Dart was 25-1 to win OROY because he didn’t have the starting job then. Since 2019, for the OROY and DROY, only Justin Herbert (30-1) won the award at longer than 25-1 odds.
Longest Odds Win OROY – Last 15 Years
50-1, Alvin Kamara (2017)
30-1, Justin Herbert (2020)
25-1, Odell Beckham Jr. (2014)
➤The Giants have allowed 20+ points in ten straight road games after last week, including 38 and 33 in their last two road games.
At home, the Giants have held opponents to 17, 18 and 22 points in three games this season.
➤Since the start of last season, the 49ers are 7-18 against the 3rd quarter spread coming out of the locker room, including 1-7 3Q ATS this season, the worst mark of any team in the NFL. SF has allowed 7+ 3rd quarter pts in 6 of 8 games this year, including five straight.
Since the beginning of last season, the 49ers are 5-20 against the second-half spread – every other team in the NFL has at least 8 2H ATS wins in that span.
➤Since Christmas of 2023, the 49ers are now 1-14 against the spread after an outright win, the worst mark of any team in the NFL.
The question is, after a SU loss, does it get any better? Well, a tad. They are an even 7-7 ATS in that span after a SU loss, except they’ve also lost four in a row ATS in this spot.
➤49ers defense was on the field for 75 plays against the Texans last week and are now on normal rest facing the Giants.
Over the last two seasons, teams that were on defense for 75+ plays the week before are just 13-23 SU (36%).
➤Let’s talk Colts. Indy’s win total was 7.5 entering the season. They are 7-1 SU entering their 9th game in Week 9.
They would be the 15th team since division realignment in 2002 to have their win total decided before Week 10, just the 9th to go over their win total that quickly and just the second team to eclipse a win total of 7.5 or more, joining the 2013 Chiefs, who started 9-0 after a win total of 7.5
➤Colts have scored 270 pts with a +116 point differential through eight games. They are the first team to do that since the 2015 Patriots. Since the 1970 merger, here are the QBs to accomplish this feat: Daniel Jones, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and John Elway.
➤Last week, Jonathan Taylor closed at -425 to score a TD against the Titans, the highest price for any player over the last 5 seasons.
Shortest closing odds for ATD last 5 seasons:
-425: J. Taylor (WK 8, 2025)
-340: CMC (WK 17, 2023)
-340: CMC (WK 14, 2023)
➤How unique is the Colts being road favorites in Pittsburgh?
Since 2011, Pittsburgh has only closed as a home dog vs. a team with a preseason win total under eight once, came back in 2013 against the Lions, who started 6-3 SU with Stafford, Megatron and Reggie Bush.
➤Not only are the Colts 7-1 SU, but they are 6-2 ATS, covering the number by 10.9 PPG, the best mark for any team at this point since the 2019 49ers.
Teams that are covering the spread by 10+ PPG are just 39-64-1 ATS (37.9%) as a road favorite in the last 20 years. They are 2-0 ATS this season, with the Colts and Seahawks each winning once. In Week 6 or later, they are 11-23 ATS in that spot.
➤Pittsburgh is facing another tough opponent at home and is the home underdog again.
The Steelers have lost five straight home games after trailing entering the 4th quarter, their longest streak since 2009-13.
➤Here we go again.
The bounce back Mike Tomlin spot. Off a loss, Tomlin is 61-47 ATS as coach of the Steelers (57%). He is 25-15 ATS as an underdog off an outright loss, including 12-4 ATS as a home dog off a SU loss. Tomlin has been listed as a home underdog in 33 games as coach of the Steelers; he is 19-14 SU and 22-8-3 ATS as a home dog.
Coaches above .500 SU as a Home Dog Last 20 Years (min. 15 games)
Mike Tomlin: 19-14 SU
Pete Carroll: 17-14 SU
Mike Vrabel: 13-10 SU
Bruce Arians: 12-8 SU
Tomlin and the Steelers will be home underdogs in consecutive weeks for just the third time ever (WK 16-17, 2024 and WK 1-2, 2023). In the previous two instances, Tomlin covered at least one of those two games:
➤Both the Falcons and Colts head to Berlin, Germany next week to face off in the first International Game in that country.
Teams with a neutral-site game on deck are 59-35 SU (63%) over the last decade, and they also cover 56% of those games. When those teams are on the road, they are 22-14 SU and 21-13-2 ATS.
➤Here’s the ridiculous stat on Daniel Jones and pressure this season. He has 92 dropbacks under pressure, his 61.6% completion pct is 2nd in the NFL to Dak, but he has zero turnover-worthy plays in the 92 dropbacks under pressure.
The next-closest QB to Jones in dropbacks with zero turnover-worthy plays under pressure? Joe Burrow, with 20, hasn’t played since the middle of Week 2. This season, Daniel Jones has 6 TD and 0 INT under pressure.
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➤Bo Nix and CJ Stroud are going to be involved in a tight spread battle this week, with the line sure to close at 4 pts or less on either side.
In games with a spread of 4 or less, Nix is just 5-6 SU. He is 9-0 SU as a favorite above 4 pts.
Nix has made 26 career starts in the NFL, and he is 10-4 ATS as a favorite and 5-7 ATS as an underdog. The one thing Nix always does well is not to get blown out. He is 23-3 in a 6-point teaser.
➤Two big injuries to look for in this game.
Nico Collins (WR) for the Texans. Who is questionable?
Patrick Surtain (CB) for the Broncos. Who is now out 4-6 weeks.
Overall, the Broncos' defense has been top-notch this year. An even better success rate and dropback success rate than they had last year.
Looking from a Surtain impact standpoint. He has 8 pass breakups, which not only lead the team but also account for a full third of their total pass breakups on the season.
Before last week vs. the Cowboys, opposing QBs were 3-11 passing 10+ yds downfield since Week 3 on Surtain’s side of the field.
➤The Broncos' home and road/neutral splits show a very different team, especially on offense.
Home: 4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS, +6.6 ATS margin, 15 20+ completions, 18 10+ yard runs
A/N: 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS, 0 ATS margin, 7 20+ completions, 13 10+ yard runs
➤Broncos defense has 36 sacks through eight games this season. The next-closest team to Denver in sacks entering Week 9 is the Rams with 26 sacks (for teams with 8+ games, it’s the Bucs with 25 sacks). In the Wild Card era (since 1990), no team has had a 10+ sack lead through Week 8 over the rest of the NFL.
The Broncos are the 1st team in NFL history with 35+ sacks and 10 or fewer sacks allowed in its first eight games of a season
➤ Texans are in the middle of a 3-game homestand, having just beat the 49ers in their first game of the home set. Teams in the middle of a homestand, off a win, are 58-30 SU and 50-37-1 ATS over the last decade.
➤Texans are 7-0 against the 4th quarter spread this season, the only undefeated team in that category left this season. Last season, the Texans were 8-11 ATS in the 4Q.
After a 6-13 2H ATS mark last season, Houston is 5-2 2H ATS so far this year.
➤ The Raiders are coming off being shut out by the Chiefs 31-0 and then having to deal with thinking about the loss through their bye week. Since 2009, the Raiders have been the 10th team to be shut out and then have their bye week – the other nine teams saw their game off the bye go under the total in 8 of those nine games, including the last five since 2014.
When a team with a win pct below 40% loses a game by 30+ pts, they are 96-68-4 ATS (59%) since 2003 – these teams are 4-1 ATS this season.
➤ We have a bye vs. bye matchup here with the Jaguars and Raiders both off a full week's rest.
Since 2015, the under is 23-12-1 (66%) when both teams are off a bye week, going under the total by 2.8 PPG.
➤ When comparing how both teams have performed off a bye, the Raiders haven’t been exactly great. Geno Smith has only started four games off a bye; he is 1-3 SU/ATS, and since 2020, Pete Carroll’s teams are 0-4 SU/ATS coming off a full bye.
Pete and Geno have a duo that is 0-2 SU/ATS as a duo off a bye week.
➤ Jaguars have trailed at the half in the last three weeks after starting the season 4-0 against the first half spread:
14-7 to Chiefs
13-6 to Seahawks
21-0 to Rams
This season on the road, the Jaguars are 2-0 SU/ATS in the first half. Trevor Lawrence was 12-17 1H ATS on the road entering this year.
This season, the Jaguars are 1-6 against the 4th quarter spread, tied for the worst mark in the NFL with the Cardinals.
➤Through 8 weeks, penalties seem to be an issue for teams with new head coaches. The 2nd (DAL), 3rd (JAC), 4th (NE), 5th (CHI), and 7th (NO) most penalized teams in the NFL this year are all 1st-year head coaches with new teams.
The Jaguars lead the NFL in offensive holding calls (11), with their tackle Patrick Mekari having 4 of those 11 OH calls, most in the NFL.
➤ Travis Hunter is ramping up on the offensive side of the ball recently.
Hunter Offensive Snap Count, Route pct
Week 5: 64.8%, 86.7%
Week 6: 79.4%, 93.6%
Week 7: 86.5%, 96.2%
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➤Tyler Shough officially replaces Spencer Rattler as the starting QB of the Saints – Shough will make his first career start this week on the road against the Rams.
This season, rookie QBs are just 6-11 ATS. Last year was a different story with rookie QBs going 43-33-2 ATS, but it's a bit of a different class so far.
Under Sean McVay, the Rams are 8-2 SU vs. rookie QBs. His losses are to Caleb Williams and Tua Tagovailoa. Ironically enough, the only QB McVay faced in his first start was Tua in 2020, in a home loss to the Dolphins in L.A.
➤Saints lucked into a cover against the first quarter last week by tying the Bucs 0-0 as underdogs. This season, the Saints are 1-7 1Q ATS, the worst mark in the NFL
➤ Rams are off a bye week to face the Saints at home this week.
In the Rams' last four games off a full bye week, they are 0-4 ATS, winning two outright but failing to cover the number. McVay is the only 0-4 ATS head coach off a bye since 2021.
➤Off of a bye week and a massive favorite. Since 2003, 30 teams have been favored by 13+ pts off a bye; they went 26-3-1 SU and 13-15-2 ATS, but they are 4-9-1 ATS since 2017 and 6-12-1 ATS since 2012.
When the opposing team is on normal rest or less, these big favs are 23-2 SU, with both losses actually coming on the same day back in 2017 with the Broncos and Falcons.
➤ Matthew Stafford has 11 TD, 0 INT and a 70.3% completion pct in 2H this year. His 2H passer rating of 128.6 is 2nd-best in the NFL behind only Lamar Jackson. Stafford is 6-1 2H ATS this season, best mark in the NFL – Stafford hasn’t finished above .500 2H ATS since 2017.
➤Both the Raiders and Saints are coming off games scoring 6 pts or less, and now they are listed as underdogs this week. Teams in that spot are 95-69-3 ATS (58%), including 4-1 ATS this season.
➤ The Rams and Saints have a bit of a rivalry stemming from the 2019 playoff game with the infamous pass interference call that sent the Rams to the Super Bowl with the game in New Orleans.
Since 2005,the Rams have covered seven consecutive games at home vs. the Saints, including going 6-1 SU in that span.
➤ Saints lost to the Bucs 23-3 last week, but didn’t allow a passing TD. They’ve still allowed 2+ pass TD in 13 of their last 19 games overall, including 11 of their previous 14 games.
➤Patrick Mahomes has faced Josh Allen three times in the playoffs – he is 4-0 SU/ATS, covering the spread by 5.4 PPG. The over is also 4-0 in those matchups.
During the regular season, Mahomes is 1-4 SU/ATS vs. Allen, failing to cover the spread by 5.9 PPG, Mahomes has lost 4 in a row both SU/ATS vs. Allen in the regular season.
In Mahomes’ last six games vs. the Bills, here are his pressure stats. Buffalo’s defense will play a massive role.
7 TD passes, 0 INT in a clean pocket
5 TD pass, 5 INT under pressure
4 TD pass, 0 INT in play action and screen game
➤Josh Allen has faced a top defense – one allowing fewer than 20 PPG – 28 times in his career during the regular season.
Allen is 23-5 SU, 22-5-1 ATS in those games, including 16-4-1 ATS when his opponent is over .500 SU on the season. When the spread is 4 pts or less in those 28 games with Allen facing a good defense, Buffalo is 15-1 SU/ATS, with his only loss coming to the Patriots in a blizzard.
➤Last week, the Bills were off a bye. Josh Allen is now 9-0 SU and 6-2-1 ATS when on a full bye week in his career, averaging over 28 PPG in those nine starts.
Since 2018, Buffalo has been just 3-5 SU the week after their game off a bye.
➤ The Chiefs are 0-3 SU this season when trailing at any point in the 4th quarter. Entering this season, Mahomes was 27-27 SU in his career when trailing at any point in the 4th quarter, the best mark for any QB in NFL history.
➤ The Chiefs are a thorn in the Bills' side.
- Since the calendar turned to 2024, the Bills have played 21 games where they led entering the 4th quarter. They are 0-2 SU vs. the Chiefs and 19-0 SU vs. all other teams.
- Since the calendar turned to 2023, the Bills have played 23 games where they led entering the 4th quarter at home. They are 0-1 SU vs. the Chiefs and 21-0 SU vs. all other teams.
➤With a total well above 50 this week, it is worth noting that Mahomes is 13-4 to the under in his 17 starts with a total of 50 or higher dating back to 2022, going under the total by almost 5 PPG.
In that span, KC and Buffalo played one game with a total of 50+, and it finished 24-20, a Bills win – also the only start for Mahomes vs. the Bills when his team is on short rest, like he is this week.
➤The fumble luck has gotten out of hand for Kansas City. The Chiefs have fumbled the ball a total of 9 times so far this season, and they have lost zero fumbles. They are the only team in the NFL that has yet to lose a fumble. Only 7 NFL teams have more fumbles on the season than Kansas City.
Last year, the Chiefs lost just 3 of 10 fumbles – with their 10 total fumbles being the fewest mark in the NFL.
➤Turnovers always play a part with Buffalo and Kansas City. Since 2019, the Bills (50-5) and Chiefs (42-3) have the best win pct in the NFL when their opponent turns it over 2+ times.
Buffalo is 4-0 SU/ATS vs. Chiefs in this span when KC turns it over 2+ times. Buffalo hasn’t turned it over 2+ times against a Chiefs defense in this span.
➤Chiefs won the 4th quarter vs. the Commanders last week. This season, the Chiefs are 7-1 against the 4th quarter spread. Since the start of last season, the Chiefs are 19-9 4Q ATS.
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➤This will be Sam Darnold’s third start at night in primetime for the Seahawks. In his previous two starts this year, Seattle is 2-0 SU/ATS, winning both games by one possession.
The only QB 3-0 ATS or better at night this season is Justin Herbert and the Chargers.
➤ Seattle out east hasn’t been so bad. Since 2018, the Seahawks are 17-8-2 ATS playing in EST, covering the spread by 4.1 PPG. Under Mike MacDonald, Seattle is 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS playing on the East Coast.
➤Jayden Daniels has made six career primetime starts already in his short career, going 4-3 SU/ATS. This will be Jayden’s third career start on Sunday Night Football, and Washington is 2-0 SU/ATS in those games.
In the last 20 years, QBs not named Jayden Daniels are 18-36 SU in night games for Washington.
In games 4P ET or later on Sunday or Monday, the later in the week primetime windows, Jayden is 7-3 SU/ATS in his career as a starter.
➤ This is Mike MacDonald’s second experience off a bye week for the Seahawks. Seattle won 20-17 in San Francisco last year off a bye as a 6-point underdog.
You have to go all the way back to Dennis Erickson in 1995-98 to find the last Seahawks HC over .500 ATS off a bye. Pete Carroll, Jim Mora and Mike Holmgren were all under .500 ATS,
The one positive for Seattle is that Sam Darnold has started five games on extended prep time since the start of the 2020 season; his teams are averaging 27.4 PPG in those matchups.
➤Road favorites off a bye week are 79-55-4 ATS (59%) dating back to 2004. Have to see if Washington brings out Jayden Daniels or Marcus Mariota, which will impact the line.
Road dogs off a bye, just 100-103-4 ATS in that same span.
➤ West coast teams – Raiders, Chargers, Rams, 49ers, Seahawks – playing on the east coast off a bye week are 12-20-1 ATS since 2003. They went 0-2 ATS last season.
➤Commanders are off facing the Chiefs and are on short rest this week. Over the last two seasons, four teams have played a game on short rest after facing Kansas City. Those teams are 0-4 SU, losing by 16 PPG.
➤ Overall in his career, Dak Prescott has dominated night games. He is 29-15-1 SU and 26-18-1 ATS, including 2-0 ATS this season and 14-7 ATS since 2021 (2nd-best mark among QBs with at least eight starts, behind just Jared Goff).
The difference between this night game and others recently is that Dak is a favorite. In his career, Dak is 18-11-1 ATS as a favorite in night games, including an impressive 25-5 SU.
Since the start of the 2020 season, Dak and the Cowboys are a perfect 13-0 SU as a favorite at night, beating their opponents by a ridiculous 18.3 PPG.
➤Since 2020, we’ve only seen five Monday Night Football games close with a total of 54 or more; the previous five games all went under the total.
If this total closes at 55 or higher, it will be the highest O/U on MNF since 2020 .. between the Cardinals and Cowboys, in Dallas on MNF. Total closed at 55.5 and finished 38-10.
➤The Cardinals have given the Cowboys fits in recent years. Dating back to 2008, the Cowboys are 1-7 SU/ATS against Arizona, including losing their last three home games, both SU and ATS, vs. the Cardinals (Drew Bledsoe was the last QB to beat Arizona at home in Dallas).
➤ Cardinals have lost five straight games by 4 pts or less. They are just the 3rd team to do that in NFL history, with the 2017 49ers and 1984 Browns.
➤Kyler Murray has started six career games off a full bye week. Arizona is just 1-5 SU/ATS in those six games, failing to cover the spread by 9.4 PPG.
In his career, on any extended prep time, Kyler is 6-11 ATS, but on 10+ days' rest, he is 2-8 ATS —the fourth-worst mark among 208 QBs since 2003.
➤ In Kyler's last three starts on Monday Night Football, his teams have scored just 41 total points, under 14 PPG. Overall, Kyler is 4-9 SU in his 13 total night games in his career (6-7 ATS).
Since the beginning of the 2021 season, Kyler has started five games as an underdog in primetime; his teams are 1-4 SU, but they haven’t scored more than 20 pts in any of the five games.
➤ Simply based on the rest factor, Arizona has historically been a good bet in this spot. Teams on 15+ days rest, who are listed as an underdog, are 23-13 ATS since 2015, covering the spread by 2.8 PPG.
➤The Kyler Murray home vs. road splits when it comes to totals are drastic. When he starts on the road, the under is 28-13-1 (68%), 2nd-best mark of 281 QBs since 2003. When he starts at home, the over is 27-19, the 4th-best mark of 122 QBs since he was drafted.
➤ Since the start of last season, Trey McBride has caught six TDs, three from Kyler Murray and three from Jacoby Brissett. Brissett has started two games for Arizona, and Kyler has started 22 games for the Cardinals.
➤ Cowboys have now played five consecutive games with the over cashing entering this week. Over the last two seasons, Dallas is 17-8 to the over, averaging 6.1 PPG over the total.
Cowboys home overs are 3-0. Home overs are 15-6 for Dallas last 3 seasons and above .500 to the over in the last 8 seasons.
This season, opposing QBs have 20 passing TDs, 4 INT, a 8.2 yds per attempt and a completion pct of 68.5%.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: We have a few NFL teams that are very hot right now. This system says now is the time to go the other way.
Matches: IND, GB, NE, DEN, LAR, KC
System: Looking at Pythagorean underdogs who are undervalued this season. These teams are 12-10 ATS so far this year.
Matches: MIA, WAS, NO, MIN, NYG
System: The 49ers are struggling a bit. The question is, can they bounce back against the Giants? If they are a good team, data says yes.
Matches: SF
System: A team like the Commanders fits this system in Week 9. Teams off a bad game, who are getting low betting support the week after.
Matches: Check current lines.
