NFL Wild Card Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer
Welcome to the playoffs! In the Wild Card Round, we have all rematches from games in the regular season for the first time since 2009. Time to get crazy.
Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to the Wild Card version of Action Network's NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, Jan. 15, 12 p.m. ET.
1. The G.O.A.T Struggles
The Buccaneers went 4-12-1 ATS (25%) this season. Only one other team since 1990 has made the playoffs with fewer than five ATS wins: 1999 Vikings 3-10-3 ATS (23.1%) — Lost in the Divisional Round.
This will be Tom Brady's second playoff game as a "home" underdog, as he was +3 in Tampa Bay for Super Bowl LV and beat the Chiefs, 31-9.
Brady has also struggled recently in night games. He is 9-9 SU, but just 2-16 ATS in his last 18 starts at night (2-13 ATS at night with Bucs).
2. Year Of The Longshot
2022 and 2017 are the only two seasons since 1977-78 where three teams at 100-1 odds or longer to win the Super Bowl all made the playoffs. This year, it was Seattle, New York and Jacksonville:
- Seahawks: 200-1
- Giants: 150-1
- Jaguars: 150-1
3. Sweep The Leg
The 49ers swept the Seahawks during the regular season. They will be the 20th team in the Wild Card era to face an opponent a third time after a SU sweep in the regular season. Those teams are 12-7 SU (9-9-1 ATS).
San Francisco has also won 10 consecutive games SU entering their wild-card game. In the last 20 years, 15 teams have played a playoff game on a 10+ game SU win streak. Those teams are 7-8 SU and 2-13 ATS.
4. First Time?
This weekend we have rookie QBs and we have first time playoff QBs.
- Since 1990, rookie QBs are 10-17 SU in the playoffs, including 3-10 SU over the last decade.
- Rookie QBs are 4-7-1 ATS on Wild Card Weekend in the last 20 years.
- First-time starting quarterbacks as home favorites are just 8-14 SU and 6-16 ATS since 2002.
- Since 2002, quarterbacks making their first NFL playoff start have gone 18-36 SU and 17-36-1 ATS, including 0-3 SU/ATS last season (not including Derek Carr vs. Joe Burrow, both made first start vs. each other).
Every NFL Game For Wild Card Round
Game-By-Game Breakdown
| Geno Smith, SEA | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Playoffs (Career) |
9-8 ATS 7-10 SU | 26-23-2 ATS 22-29 SU | 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU |
| Brock Purdy, SF | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Playoffs (Career) |
4-1 ATS 5-0 SU | 4-1 ATS 5-0 SU | 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU |
+ Geno Smith makes his first playoff start in his ninth NFL season.
Smith has faced the 49ers twice in his career, both this season: 0-2 SU/ATS (Seahawks scored 20 total points).
+ Pete Carroll is 9-9 ATS in 18 career playoff games.
Largest Underdog Playoffs Pete Carroll
- +10 – 2022 at SF
- +10 – 2010-11 vs. CHI (L, 35-24)
- +9.5 – 2010-11 vs. NO (W, 41-36)
+ Carroll knows how to win in San Francisco; he is 3-2 SU and ATS on the road vs. Kyle Shanahan (including 2-1 SU as underdogs).
+ A Seahawks win as a double-digit underdog would be the 15th such victory for a double-digit dog in the playoffs in history and the third since 2019.
- +10: Washington over TB (2020-21)
- +10: Titans over BAL (2019-20)
+ Double-digit underdogs are 3-11 ATS in the playoffs since 2011. Double-digit underdogs in the Wild Card Round are 1-7 ATS in the last 20 years.
+ Seahawks were 200-1 to win the Super Bowl entering the season, the third-worst odds for any team in the NFL (Falcons and Texans).
+ Smith is 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS in his last eight starts. But the performance hasn’t been awful.
15 pass TD, 7 INT. Five of eight games above 50 QBR. Seahawks were sixth in DVOA pass in the first nine weeks and now they are 12th since Week 10.
+ Comeback Player of the Year odds entering Week 18: Christian McCaffrey (+175), Geno Smith (+175), Saquon Barkley (+225)
+ Seahawks have struggled vs. the run at points this season, allowing 150.2 rushing yards per game. In the last 20 years of the playoffs, teams allowing 150+ rushing yards/game are just 15-21 ATS, including 4-8 ATS in the Wild Card Round.
This is the first playoff game in 20 years with this good of rush offense (SF 138.8 rush yds/game) vs. this bad of a rush defense (SEA 150.2 opp rush yds/game).
+ 49ers swept the Seahawks during the regular season. How do those teams perform in the playoffs?
- The team that accomplished the sweep has a record of 20-14 SU in the playoff game all-time. When playing at home, the team that swept that opponent has a record of 18-8.
- In the divisional round, the team that went 2-0 has a record of only 6-5 when trying to get to 3-0.
- 49ers will be the 20th team in the wild card era to face an opponent a third time after a SU sweep in the regular season. Those teams are 12-7 SU (9-9-1 ATS).
- 49ers also will be the 12th team in the wild card era to face an opponent a third time after a SU and ATS sweep in the regular season. Those teams are just 6-5 SU and ATS in the playoff game.
- If 49ers beat Seahawks, they will be third team in eight-division era starting in 2002 to win seven games against their own division in a season, including the playoffs. Steelers did it in 2002 (vs Cle in playoffs) and 2008 (vs Bal).
+ Pete Carroll has now made the playoffs 10 times in 13 seasons with the Seahawks. He's done so with three different starting quarterbacks. They've never gone back-to-back seasons without making the playoffs under Carroll.
+ Seahawks made the playoffs in the final week of the regular season, while needing help to get in. No team needing help to make playoffs in last week of the season has won the Super Bowl. Only four Super Bowl champs clinched in final week and all controlled their playoff fate in season finale (1980 OAK, 2005 PIT, 2010 GB, 2011 NYG).
+ 49ers have won 10 consecutive games SU entering their wild-card game. In the last 20 years, 15 teams have played a playoff game on a 10+ game SU win streak. Those teams are 7-8 SU and 2-13 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 5.4 PPG.
+ Brock Purdy has won his first five starts SU. No 49ers QB has ever won his first three starts with the franchise as a rookie. (Jimmy Garoppolo won his first five starts in 2017 after coming over via trade from New England).
- FWIW: No rookie starting quarterback has ever made the Super Bowl, let alone won it.
- Purdy is the second rookie quarterback since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970 to win each of his first five career starts.
Rookie QB to win first five career starts
- 2022 Brock Purdy (5)
- 2004 Ben Roethlisberger (13)
+ Rookie QBs are 20-10 SU, 21-9 ATS entering the playoffs this season.
Rookie QBs: Kenny Pickett, Desmond Ridder, Malik Willis, Bailey Zappe, Sam Howell, Skyler Thompson, BrockPurdy, Anthony Brown.
+ Since 1990, rookie QBs are 10-17 SU in the playoffs, including 3-10 SU over the last decade.
- Rookie QBs are 4-7-1 ATS on Wild Card Weekend in the last 20 years.
- First-time starting quarterbacks as home favorites are just 8-14 SU and 6-16 ATS since 2002.
+ 49ers win playoff games without their QB. They are 8-4 SU in the last decade in the playoffs with 11 pass TD and 11 interceptions. Six of the 12 games they threw for under 200 yards. Seven of the 12 games they had under 60% completion pct.
+ 49ers record when Deebo Samuel is involved in the action and when he isn’t.
49ers Record When Deebo Samuel Gets at Least One Target:
- With: 33-16 SU
- Without: 8-8 SU
+ 49ers are one of seven teams in the NFL whose games have gone over the total more than under the total this season (MIN, PHI, CHI, DET, DAL, SF, ARI).
+ Seahawks defense allows 23.6 PPG this season, which ranks 24th in the NFL.
Kyle Shanahan is 16-27-1 ATS vs. teams that allow 24 PPG or more and 38-16 ATS vs. teams who allow under 24 PPG for the season.
+ Shanahan likes to stay west. With the 49ers, he is 24-11 SU, 22-12-1 ATS when San Francisco plays in the Pacific Time Zone after playing in the PST in their previous game as well.
+ Kyle Shanahan has won seven straight NFC West games SU and ATS dating back to last season.
+ 49ers were 2-9-1 ATS as a favorite vs. the NFC West under Kyle Shanahan entering this season. This year, they are 5-0 ATS in this spot.
+ The 49ers have outscored opponents 157-54 in second halves of their last 10 games.
+ Purdy starts his career 5-0 SU with multiple pass TD in his first five starts. Only one other QB has done that even four times since 1950: Kurt Warner (four straight).
+ Purdy starts his career with multiple pass TD in first five starts.
Most Consecutive Starts with Multiple Pass TD Begin Career: Dan Marino 5, Purdy 5
+ The 49ers are 42-19 straight up and 35-25-1 against the spread with Jimmy Garoppolo as QB. With all other QB in that span? They are 14-29 SU and 20-23 ATS.
+ 49ers are 10-30 SU when trailing at the half under Kyle Shanahan.
SF has won three straight games when trailing at the half: Rams, Chargers, Raiders.
+ Kyle Shanahan ATS with 49ers by QB
- Jimmy G: 35-25-1 ATS
- All others: 20-23 ATS
+ Nick Bosa (18.5) finished the 2022 regular season as the sack leader (was 14-1 in preseason).
+ 49ers since getting Christian McCaffrey full time in Week 8:
49ers are 10-0 SU, 8-2 ATS.
- Weeks 1-9 DVOA – Pass: 9th | Rush: 26th
- Weeks 10-17 DVOA – Pass: 1st | Rush: 2nd
+ 49ers defensive ranks:
- 1st in pts/game & pts/play
- 1st in opp yards/rush & yards/game
- #1 defense in DVOA
| Justin Herbert, LAC | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Playoffs (Career) |
11-5-1 ATS 10-7 SU | 27-21-1 ATS 25-24 SU | 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU |
| Trevor Lawrence, JAC | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Playoffs (Career) |
8-9 ATS 9-8 SU | 13-21 ATS 12-22 SU | 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU |
+ Justin Herbert’s first career playoff start (facing Trevor Lawrence, also first playoff start).
+ Herbert’s third-career game vs. Jaguars and second vs. Trevor Lawrence
He’s 1-1 SU/ATS vs. Jaguars, lost 38-10 at home vs. Jaguars earlier this season.
+ Chargers first playoff game as a favorite since January 17, 2010 at home vs. Jets. Philip Rivers vs. Mark Sanchez. Last time Chargers covered a playoff game as a favorite? January 6, 2008 vs. Titans. Philip Rivers vs. Vince Young.
+ Chargers’ 59-year title drought is the fourth-longest among all franchises.
75 – Cardinals, 65 – Lions, 61 – Titans
+ Over the last two seasons, Mike Williams has missed five total games. The Chargers are 2-3 SU/ATS with Los Angeles averaging 22 PPG (Chargers avg 23 PPG this season).
- Two of those five games Keenan Allen also missed, Chargers went 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS.
- Keenan Allen last three games without Mike Williams: 15 rec, 172 rec yds, 2 TD
- How does Herbert perform without Williams? 7 pass TD, 4 INT in 5 games (all on road). Over 26.5 completions in 4 of 5 games.
+ Justin Herbert and Chargers have revenge on the mind after a 28-pt loss vs. Jaguars earlier this season. Herbert is 0-2 SU/ATS coming off a 20+ pt loss vs. an opponent in a revenge spot in his career.
- Overall, Herbert has excelled this year though in that revenge spot, going 5-2 SU and 6-0-1 ATS after losing to an opponent in Chargers previous meeting.
- Teams off a 20+ pt loss vs. their upcoming playoff opponent are just 4-10 ATS since 2016.
+ Both the Chargers and Cowboys lost to their upcoming playoff opponents by double-digits this season. Those such teams are 11-21 ATS when listed as favorites in the playoff rematch.
+ Chargers travel east to face Jags. Its a small sample, but last 20 years LA is 16th PST team to play in EST in the playoffs. They are 10-5 ATS, including 4-1 ATS in WC round.
+ Herbert has played in EST or CST five times this season and the Chargers are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS. Herbert by time zone:
- EST/CST: 12-4 ATS
- MST/PST: 15-17-1 ATS
+ Justin Herbert as an underdog and as a favorite
- Underdog: 12-6 ATS, 16-2 in 6-pt teasers
- Favorite: 15-15-1 ATS, 21-8 in 6-pt teasers
+ Justin Herbert is 15-30-4 (33%) against the second half spread in his career.
+ Chargers are coming off a road game in Denver last week and are now on a short week to facing the Jaguars. In the last 20 years, teams are 7-9 SU, but 5-11 ATS on short rest after facing the Broncos in Denver.
+ Chargers have been a much better road team than at home.
- Herbert is 9-10-1 ATS as a home favorite. Chargers are 11-19-2 ATS as a home favorite since 2018.
- Chargers are 5-4 SU and 7-2 ATS on road this season. They are the third-best team in road ATS profitability this season. Chargers have finished .500 ATS or better on the road in 11 consecutive seasons, including this year.
+ Trevor Lawrence’s first career playoff start (facing Justin Herbert, also first playoff start).
- Since November, Lawrence is second in the NFL in completion percentage, third in passer rating and eighth in QBR.
- Last seven games: 14 total TDs, 2 INTs. 6-1 SU record
+ Jaguars fifth home playoff game in franchise history. First time as a home underdog.
+ Games at night are 36-19 to the under so far this season.
10 straight unders, under is 16-2 in night games since Dec. 1
+ Jaguars have won five consecutive games for the first time since December of 2005 and for just the second time this millennium.
- Trevor Lawrence is 12-22 SU, 14-20 ATS in his career.
- On at least a two-game winning streak over the last 20 years, the Jaguars are 17-29-1 ATS in their next game.
+ Trevor Lawrence has never lost a game in NFL, college or HS on a Saturday:
- 0-0 NFL
- 32-0 CFB
- 3-0 HS
+ Jaguars opened +2.5 and have now moved down to +1.5. NFL playoff teams that become smaller underdogs (+4 to +3) have gone 43-18-2 (71%) ATS over the last 20 years, including 51-12 (81%) in 6-pt teasers.
+ As a favorite or an underdog of fewer than 2.5 pts, Trevor Lawrence is 2-8 SU and 1-9 ATS in his career.
+ Jaguars are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. Chargers
Jaguars as home dogs vs. Chargers all-time
- 2019: +3.5, L 45-10
- 2013: +7, L 24-6
- 2011: +3, L 38-14
+ Jaguars and Chargers face off in the Wild Card Round after both failing to make the playoffs last year. When two teams play in the Wild Card or Divisional Round after both failing to make the playoffs the year prior, the road team is 29-9 ATS (76.3%).
+ Jaguars coach Doug Pederson has coached five playoff games as an underdog, he is 3-2 SU and 5-0 ATS — in the last 20 years there is only one other coach undefeated as an underdog in the playoffs with minimum 4 games in the spot…
Tom Coughlin is 8-0 ATS as a dog.
+ Jaguars may have issues getting to the QB. They are 29th in adjusted sack rate according to Football Outsiders, with just 35 sacks (7th-fewest in NFL).
+ Trevor Lawrence has started three games at night with the Jaguars:
- TNF: at Bengals in 2021 as 7.5-point underdogs and lost 24-21.
- TNF: at Jets in 2022 as 2.5-point underdogs and won 19-3.
- Sat: vs. Titans in 2022 as 6.5-pt favorites and won 20-16.
+ Jaguars are 6-22 SU when allowing 14 pts or more under Trevor Lawrence (5-7 this season, including 4-1 in their last 5 games in the spot)
+ Jaguars have allowed fewer than 17 points in three consecutive games entering the playoffs. Jacksonville is just the second team since 2016 to enter wild-card game on such a defensive streak: 2019 Bears, who lost at home as 6.5 pt favorites vs. Eagles.
+ Jaguars are 6-2 to the under at home and 6-3 to the over on the road this season.
| Skylar Thompson, MIA | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Playoffs (Career) |
0-0 ATS 0-0 SU | 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU | 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU |
| Josh Allen, BUF | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Playoffs (Career) |
7-8-1 ATS 13-3 SU | 44-33-5 ATS 55-27 SU | 2-4 ATS 3-3 SU |
+ Dolphins own the second-longest active streak without a playoff win (21 years. Longest is Lions at 30 years).
- Lost four straight playoff games — third-longest active streak in NFL (Lions 9, Washington 5)
- Dolphins points last four playoff games: 12, 9, 3, 0
+ Dolphins SU winning and losing streaks this season:
- Games 1-3: Won 3 straight
- Games 4-6: Lost 3 straight
- Games 7-11: Won 5 straight
- Games 12-16: Lost 5 straight
- Game 17: Won
+ Dolphins homefield advantage: 36-20 SU, 34-19-3 ATS since 2016 — the best ATS team in the NFL. The biggest impact? Later in the season, in November or later since 2016, Miami is 24-8 SU, 23-7-2 ATS at home.
How about on the road? Miami is 20-37 SU and 26-30-1 ATS on the road since 2016. In November or later, they are 12-20 SU and 14-18 ATS on the road.
+ Dolphins are 50-1 to win it all, their highest odds of the season so far.
+ Teams in the Wild Card Round who failed to make the playoffs the year before, facing a team that did, have struggled mightily, going 12-28-1 ATS (30%) over the last 20 years. Those same non-playoff teams from the year prior are 37-28 ATS (57%) after the Wild Card Round.
Largest spreads in Miami Dolphins playoff games:
+13.5: 1998 at Broncos (L, 38-3)
+13: 2022 at Bills pic.twitter.com/MiovPz2h5Q— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) January 11, 2023
+ Dolphins made the playoffs in the final week of the regular season, while needing help to get in. No team needing help to make playoffs in last week of the season has won the Super Bowl. Only four Super Bowl champs clinched in final week and all controlled their playoff fate in season finale (1980 OAK, 2005 PIT, 2010 GB, 2011 NYG).
+ The Dolphins are coming off a home game against the Jets last week. Teams coming off playing the Jets, on normal rest or less, are 1-10 ATS in their next game since October 1st, including 3-11 ATS in 2022 — the least profitable prior team ATS in the NFL.
+ The Dolphins have averaged 16.3 points per game when Tua Tagovailoa doesn't play, 25.5 PPG when he does.
+ Tagovailoa prefers South Beach when it comes to covering the number. He’s 12-5 ATS at home and 7-9-1 ATS away from home in his career.
+ Dolphins are 7-1 to the under at home this season and 7-2 to the over on the road.
+ Tua Tagovailoa vs. Teddy Bridgewater vs. Skyler Thompson this season
- TT: 8-5 SU, 7-6 ATS, 3rd overall QBR, 2nd overall DVOA, 2 of 62 QBs EPA/play
- TB: 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, 24th overall QBR, 22nd overall DVOA, 27 of 62 QBs EPA/play
- ST: 1-1 SU/ATS, 33rd overall QBR, 31st overall DVOA, 57 of 62 QBs EPA/play
+ The Bills are 12-2 straight up all-time at home in the playoffs. The two QBs to defeat the Bills in Buffalo in the playoffs? Mark Brunell and Len Dawson.
+ Between Week 14 and Week 18, the Bills were favorites to win the Super Bowl ahead of the Chiefs. Entering the playoffs, the Chiefs are now favorites to win it all.
If the Bills close -12 or higher against the Dolphins, it would be the largest Wild Card Round spread in history 👀
It would pass the last season's record of Chiefs -11.5 against the Steelers.https://t.co/O113QKcVzr
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) January 11, 2023
+ Bills were favored in all 17 games this season (and their wild-card game). They are the eighth team in the last 20 years to be favored in every regular season game. Four of the previous seven made the Super Bowl, but none of the last three since 2019.
- 2022 Bills: 6-8-1 ATS
- 2021 Chiefs: 8-9 ATS == Conf Championship
- 2021 Bucs: 9-8 ATS == Divisional
- 2019 Patriots: 8-7-1 ATS == Wild Card
- 2018 Patriots: 9-7 ATS == W Super Bowl
- 2018 Rams: 7-8-1 ATS == L Super Bowl
- 2017 Patriots: 11-5 ATS == L Super Bowl
- 2007 Patriots: 10-6 ATS == L Super Bowl
+ The temperature for the MIA-BUF game is projected to be around 29 degrees in Buffalo.
- Experience in freezing temperatures; Josh Allen is 12-2 SU and 8-3-3 ATS in his career (won 10 in a row SU since start of 2020).
- Dolphins 17th game over the last 20 years in freezing temperatures. They are 5-11 SU and 8-8 ATS, losing 10 in a row SU dating back to 2011.
- Skylar Thompson has never started a game in college or pros in freezing temperatures.
+ Dolphins are allowing 23.5 PPG this season (24th in NFL). Josh Allen has excelled vs. good defenses and struggled against bad defenses in terms of covering the spread.
- Vs. teams allowing 24 PPG or more: 16-16-4 ATS
- Vs. teams allowing less than 20 PPG: 15-4-1 ATS
+ A breath of fresh air. Under Sean McDermott, the Bills, on normal rest or less, are 7-2 SU and 6-2-1 ATS the week after playing the Patriots.
In the last 20 years, only one team has played in the Wild Card Round, on normal rest or less, coming off facing the Patriots. 2016-17 Dolphins played in Pittsburgh as 11-pt dogs and lost 30-12.
+ Josh Allen threw 14 INT this season (T-3rd most in NFL). But he has only thrown 1 INT in his last four home games.
- Only three of the Dolphins last 16 QBs they’ve faced has thrown an INT vs. them.
- Allen hasn’t thrown an INT in his last three games vs. Dolphins.
- Allen has 14 TD and just 1 INT in his career in the playoffs, the highest TD-to-INT ratio (min 5 playoff games) in NFL history.
- Josh Allen 14 (14-1), Alex Smith 7 (14-2)
+ The Bills currently have an 80%+ win pct entering the playoffs. In the last 20 years, teams with 80%+ win pct entering the playoffs are 38-57 ATS (40%), including 29-48 ATS (37.7%) as favorites. Since 2017, these 80%+ teams are under .500 ATS each individual season.
+ The biggest advantage in Buffalo? Might just be the Bills second half. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 50-29-3 against the second half spread.
Allen is 10-4 2H ATS in December or later in his career.
| Daniel Jones, NYG | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Playoffs (Career) |
12-4 ATS 9-6-1 SU | 31-22 ATS 21-31-1 SU | 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU |
| Kirk Cousins, MIN | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Playoffs (Career) |
7-9-1 ATS 13-4 SU | 69-69-2 ATS 73-65-2 SU | 1-2 ATS 1-2 SU |
+ Daniel Jones makes his first career playoff start this week vs. the Vikings.
Since 2002, quarterbacks making their first NFL playoff start have gone 18-36 SU and 17-36-1 ATS, including 0-3 SU/ATS last season (not including Derek Carr vs. Joe Burrow, both made first start vs. each other).
+ Daniel Jones has excelled on the road and as an underdog in his career.
- Road: 17-7 ATS (9th-best of 257 QBs last 20 years as dog)
- Dog: 26-15 ATS (9th-best of 265 QBs last 20 years as dog)
- Road Dog: 16-5 ATS (6th-best of 253 QBs last 20 years as road dog)
+ The under is 34-15-1 (69%) in Giants games since the start of the 2020 season, the most profitable team to the under.
+ The Magic of the 6 Seed. How 6 seeds have fared in the WC Round.
- 2017-22: 9-1 ATS
- 2003-16: 12-15-1 ATS
+ Giants and Vikings face off in the Wild Card Round after both failing to make the playoffs last year. When two teams play in the Wild Card or Divisional Round after both failing to make the playoffs the year prior, the road team is 29-9 ATS (76.3%).
+ The Ravens and Giants enter the playoffs as underdogs this week averaging 4.5+ yards/rush this season. Over the last 20 years, nine teams have entered the playoffs as underdogs averaging 4.5+ yards/rush, they are 1-8 SU and ATS, failing to cover the spread by 6.1 PPG.
+ Giants finished the regular season 13-4 ATS, the most profitable team ATS in the NFL.
- Boom or Bust: Five teams since 2000 have led NFL in ATS profitability w/ 13 ATS wins. Two won Super Bowl (2003, 2016 Patriots) and three lost in Wild Card Round (2021 Cowboys, 2015 Vikings, 2004 Chargers).
- Since 2000, here are the playoff results of the 22 teams to finish atop the ATS standings in the regular season. Since 2018, three lost in WC and one missed playoffs:
Won SB: 3
Lost SB: 1
Conf Champ: 6
Divisional: 1
Missed Playoffs: 3
+ Giants/Vikings will be played inside of a dome in Minneapolis this weekend.
Playoff O/U Result by Stadium Conditions last 20 years
- In a Dome: 29-17 to the over
- Outside: 91-71-4 to the under
+ Giants are 6-5-1 SU and 10-2 ATS as underdogs this season, they were 6-10 ATS as underdogs last season (NY is most profitable team this season ATS as underdogs).
Best ATS Season as Underdogs Last 20 Years
- 2012 Rams 11-3 ATS (+$756) == Missed playoffs
- 2022 Giants 9-2 ATS (+$718)
- 2006 Saints 9-2 ATS (+$704) == Conf Championship
- 2006 Titans 10-3 ATS (+$675) == Missed playoffs
- 2004 Chargers 8-1-1 ATS (+$641) == L, Wild Card
+ Giants are the most profitable team SU in the NFL this season. 9-7-1 SU, a $100 bettor up $602.
+ The Vikings are now 13-4 with a -3 point differential.
11-0 SU in one-score games — an NFL record.
+ Cousins with Vikings: 39-41-2 ATS, 30-28 ATS with Washington.
- 1p ET or earlier: 48-37-2 ATS
- 4p ET or later: 21-32 ATS
+ The Vikings 46-year Super Bowl appearance drought is the fourth-longest active streak
65 – Lions, 54 – Jets, 50 – Browns
+ With their victory over the Bears in Week 18, the Vikings have won 15 consecutive games as a favorite, dating back to last season. That is the longest current streak in the NFL.
Vikings last loss as a favorite? December 5, 2021 vs. Lions.
+ Only 3 teams have made a Conf Champ game with a negative point diff in the regular season. The 1978 Oilers, 1996 Jaguars and 2011 SB-champion Giants.
+ Worst point differentials for teams that won at least 13 games in NFL history:
- -3 Vikings, 2022
- +63 Packers, 2019
- +68 Titans, 1999
- +79 Packers, 2021
- +90 Colts, 1999
- +98 Steelers, 2017
- +107 49ers, 1981
+ Vikings are off a road game in Soldier Field against the Bears. Teams coming off a road game in Chicago, on normal rest or less, are 79-54-3 ATS (59.3%) in their next game over the last 20 years — most profitable previous road city ATS in the NFL.
+ Vikings have the largest margin to the over of any team in the NFL. Their games are going over the total by 3.8 PPG.
+ Major luck factor: Vikings are third in the NFL with a plus-9 turnover margin on drives that have started in the fourth quarter or overtime.
+ Vikings are one of seven teams in the NFL whose games have gone over the total more than under the total this season (MIN, PHI, CHI, DET, DAL, SF, ARI).
+ 13-4 Vikings are a small favorite over the 9-7-1 Giants.
Teams with 75%+ win pct facing team with less than 60% win pct, but the spread is under 6 points. Only happened four times in the last 20 years.
- 2020 Patriots (-4.5) vs. Titans. Lost 20-13.
- 2017 Raiders (+4) at Texans. Lost 27-14.
- 2014 49ers (-3) at Packers. Won 23-20.
- 2009 Colts (-1.5) at Chargers. Lost 23-17.
+ Justin Jefferson became the sixth WR in history to have 1,800+ receiving yards in a season.
- 2012 Calvin Johnson – Missed playoffs
- 2021 Cooper Kupp – Won SB (5 rec, 61 yds WC)
- 2015 Julio Jones – Missed playoffs
- 1995 Jerry Rice – Divisional (1st game; 11 rec, 117 yd)
- 2015 Antonio Brown – Divisional (2nd game; 7 rec, 119 yd; inactive in Divisional)
| Tyler Huntley, BAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Playoffs (Career) |
3-3 ATS 2-4 SU | 5-3 ATS 3-5 SU | 0-0 ATS 0-0 SU |
| Joe Burrow, CIN | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Playoffs (Career) |
12-4 ATS 12-4 SU | 31-15 ATS 27-18-1 SU | 4-0 ATS 3-1 SU |
+ How much scoring does Lamar Jackson add to the Ravens? Here is Ravens PPG with Lamar and all other QBs:
- With Lamar Jackson: 26.6 PPG, allow 19.3 PPG
- Without Lamar Jackson: 19.9 PPG, allow 18.5 PPG
+ Since losing Lamar Jackson, Ravens PPG: 16, 13, 17, 3, 16, 10
The Ravens have scored 17 points or fewer in six consecutive games for the first time since 2005.
+ Tyler Huntley vs. Lamar Jackson vs. Anthony Brown this season
- AB: 0-1 SU, 1-0 ATS, 35th overall QBR, 35th overall DVOA, 56 of 62 QBs EPA/play
- TH: 2-2 SU/ATS, 27th overall QBR, 27th overall DVOA, 38 of 62 QBs EPA/play
- LJ: 8-4 SU, 5-7 ATS, 9th overall QBR, 14th overall DVOA, 14 of 62 QBs EPA/play
+ Ravens have faced four teams this season above .500 SU, they are 0-4 SU, including losing two games as favorites.
+ Games at night are 36-19 to the under so far this season.
10 straight unders, under is 16-2 in night games since Dec. 1
+ Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens have excelled vs. good teams overall, but when it comes to good teams in the AFC North, not so much.
Harbaugh vs. Above .500 SU Teams
- Vs. AFC North: 17-21-3 ATS
- All other divisions: 51-30-2 ATS
+ Ravens defense has stepped up since acquiring Roquan Smith on October 31st. Ravens under went 7-1 after acquiring Smith (7-2 incl. Week 18).
- Weeks 1-9: BAL 20th DVOA vs. rush
- Week 10-17: BAL 3rd DVOA vs. rush
+ Lamar Jackson is 46-19 SU and 33-32 ATS in his career. Since his first start in 2018, five other Ravens QBs have made a start — Anthony Brown, Robert Griffin, Josh Johnson, Joe Flacco, Tyler Huntley. Those QBs are 8-13 SU and 9-12 ATS.
+ The Magic of the 6 Seed. How 6 seeds have fared in the WC Round.
- 2017-22: 9-1 ATS
- 2003-16: 12-15-1 ATS
+ Between 2016 and 2021, John Harbaugh was 63-36-2 against the first half spread. This season, the Ravens are 7-9-1 against the first half spread.
+ Ravens lost to the Bengals by 11 in Week 18. Teams playing in the Wild Card Round coming off a double-digit loss in their last game are only 6-13 ATS in the last 20 years.
+ Teams in the Wild Card Round who failed to make the playoffs the year before, facing a team that did, have struggled mightily, going 12-28-1 ATS (30%) over the last 20 years. Those same non-playoff teams from the year prior are 37-28 ATS (57%) after the Wild Card Round.
+ The Ravens and Giants enter the playoffs as underdogs this week averaging 4.5+ yards/rush this season. Over the last 20 years, nine teams have entered the playoffs as underdogs averaging 4.5+ yards/rush, they are 1-8 SU and ATS, failing to cover the spread by 6.1 PPG.
+ Ravens since 2017
- Home: 22-29 ATS (2-6 ATS this season)
- Road: 31-18-1 ATS (6-3 ATS this season)
+ Lamar Jackson: 13-20 ATS at home | 20-12 ATS on road
Lamar Jackson: 22-30 ATS as favorite | 10-2 ATS as underdog
+ Demarcus Robinson caught a TD vs. the Falcons in Week 16. Prior to that, a Ravens WR hadn't caught a TD since Week 3 with Devin Duvernay and a Ravens WR hadn't scored a TD since Week 8 (Duvernay).
+ Jason Pierre-Paul is 9-1 SU in his playoff career. 4-0 straight up with the Giants. 5-1 straight up with the Bucs.
+ The Bengals were 0-8 straight up and 0-7-1 against the spread in their last eight playoff games entering last season. Cincinnati went 4-0 ATS in last year’s playoffs.
+ Bengals are +750 to win the Super Bowl, their lowest odds of the season.
+ Burrow career: 27-18-1 SU, 31-15 ATS (+$1,346). Most profitable QB ATS since 2020.
+ Burrow is 19-4 ATS in his last 23 starts.
+ Bengals are 20-4 ATS in their last 24 games. They are the most profitable team ATS in the NFL over the last two seasons, including the playoffs (26-11 ATS).
+ Bengals OL were 31st in adjusted sack rate last season via Football Outsiders (55 sacks; 3rd-most). This season, they are 16th, middle of the pack (allowed 44 sacks).
Bengals lost G Alex Cappa in Week 18. Cappa was in for 724 pass plays this season blocking for Burrow, 13th-most of any OL this year and the 20 pressures allowed is tied for second-fewest among 700+ pass plays this year.
+ Bengals ended a 30-year drought without a playoff win last year and made it to the Super Bowl, the sixth-longest drought without a playoff win in NFL history. Of the previous four teams, three missed the playoffs the following year and the other (1973 Steelers) lost their first playoff game.
- Cardinals: 50 (1948-1998) – Missed playoffs (2008 next)
- Steelers: 39 (1933-1972) – L, Divisional (1st playoff game)
- Lions: 33 (1958-1991) – Missed playoffs (1993 L in WC)
- Saints: 33 (1967-2000) – Missed playoffs (2006 next)
- Lions: 31 (1992-active)
- Bengals: 30 (1991-2021)
+ Bengals won and covered seven consecutive games before not covering by a half point vs. Ravens last week. The third time the Bengals have won and covered at least six straight in a single season: 2022, 1988 (L SB), 1970 (L Div)
+ Burrow is 16-5 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU. In the last 20 years, he’s the seventh-most profitable QB ATS vs. teams above .500 SU of 252 QBs.
Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Peyton Manning, Joe Burrow
+ In Joe Burrow’s career, he is 31-14-1 (69%) against the second half spread, including 12-4 this season and 27-8-1 (77%) over the last two seasons.
+ Burrow has excelled in colder temperatures
50 degrees or less: 12-2 SU/ATS (won 10 straight SU)
Last 20 years best ATS 50/sub: Brady, Rodgers, Burrow
40 degrees or less: 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS
| Dak Prescott, DAL | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Playoffs (Career) |
6-6 ATS 8-4 SU | 54-45-2 ATS 62-39 SU | 0-4 ATS 1-3 SU |
| Tom Brady, TB | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Career | Playoffs (Career) |
4-12-1 ATS 8-9 SU | 213-156-11 ATS 280-94 SU | 25-21-1 ATS 35-12 SU |
+ Dak Prescott is 0-4 against the spread in his career in the playoffs. In the last 20 years, he joins Andy Dalton and Carson Palmer as the only three QBs 0-4 ATS or worse in the playoffs.
+ Prescott has thrown an interception in seven straight games and nine of his last 10 games.
- Prescott tied for the lead in INT this season. He is the first player in NFL history to lead (or share lead of) the NFL in interceptions despite missing 5+ games
- Anyone betting Prescott each game to throw an INT would be up 8.6 units, most of any QB in the NFL.
+ Mike McCarthy is 11-7-1 ATS in the playoffs as a head coach over the last 20 years, making him the third-most profitable coach ATS in the playoffs.
- Tom Coughlin: 9-2 ATS
- John Harbaugh: 12-7 ATS
- Mike McCarthy: 11-7-1 ATS
- McCarthy is 6-2 ATS as an underdog, but just 5-5 ATS as a favorite.
- Cowboys have a better win pct than Bucs. McCarthy is 1-3 SU/ATS in playoffs when his team has a better win pct (losing 3 straight SU).
+ Cowboys lost to the Commanders by 20 in Week 18. Teams playing in the Wild Card Round coming off a double-digit loss in their last game are only 6-13 ATS.
+ Cowboys went over their preseason win total (10) this past season. Dallas went over last season, too. Dallas hasn’t gone over their win total in consecutive years since 1994-95, ending with their last Super Bowl win.
+ Both the Chargers and Cowboys lost to their upcoming playoff opponents by double-digits this season. Those such teams are 11-21 ATS when listed as favorites in the playoff rematch.
+ Dak Prescott is 4-1 on MNF in his career (2-0 on the road).
+ Cowboys haven’t won a road playoff game since January 17, 1993 (Troy Aikman vs. Steve Young)
- Lost eight straight road playoff games SU (2-6 ATS).
- Only 11 players on the active roster were born the last time the Cowboys won a road playoff game.
+ Much has been discussed about the impact of playing in Washington. Since 2018, teams on normal rest or less are 22-12 ATS (65%) after playing on the road in Washington, the second-most profitable prior road city in the NFL in that span (best is Jacksonville).
+ Prescott as a 3-pt favorite or greater on the road: 17-6 SU, 15-7-1 ATS
Prescott's 15-7-1 ATS mark is the 2nd-best in this spot over the last 20 years behind just Peyton Manning (35-20-5 ATS).
+ Dak Prescott is 54-45-2 ATS (54.5%) in his career.
25-12-2 ATS (67.6%) vs. opponents below .500 SU
- +$1,164 – second to Brady since 2005
16-24 ATS (40%) vs. opponents above .500 SU
- -$895 – 244th of 252 QBs since 2005
+ Cowboys are one of seven teams in the NFL whose games have gone over the total more than under the total this season (MIN, PHI, CHI, DET, DAL, SF, ARI).
+ Cowboys face the Buccaneers in Tampa this week. Tampa’s field is grass vs. the Cowboys usual turf. Cowboys are 1-4 SU/ATS this season on grass (PHI, GB, JAC, TEN, WAS) and they could face Eagles and 49ers on grass after Tampa Bay.
+ Brady career in the NFL playoffs: 35-12 straight up and 25-21-1 against the spread
- Home dog in playoffs once: 2020-21 Super Bowl, +3 vs. Chiefs (W, 31-9)
- Dog in playoffs: 7-3 SU/ATS. Two losses vs. Peyton Manning and one vs. Jake Plummer
+ Tom Brady is 20-8 SU (71.4%) on MNF in his career (15-12-1 ATS; 9-2 SU at home).
+ Tom Brady’s worst playoff losses in his NFL career:
- -12.5 vs. NYG 2007-08
- -9.5 at NYJ 2010-11
- -8 vs. BAL 2012-13
+ Brady as TD or higher favorite in playoffs: 17-3 SU/9-11 ATS.
+ Brady is 1-5 vs. NFC East teams in the playoffs (beat Eagles last year).
+ Bucs are coming off a road game in Atlanta heading home for their playoff game vs. Cowboys. Over the last two seasons, teams on less than 10 days rest coming off playing in a “party city” (LA, LV, MIA, ATL, NY, NO) are 43-66-2 ATS (39.4%). Since 2019, they are 91-129-5 ATS, for a -19.3% ROI.
+ Bucs are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games entering the playoffs. Over the last 20 years, only five teams have played a playoff game off a 2-8 ATS or worse 10-game stretch and only played in the Wild Card Round:
- 2020 Chiefs (-3) vs. TB. Lost 31-9 (Super Bowl)
- 2020 Chiefs (-3) vs. BUF. Won 38-24 (AFC Champ)
- 2009 Saints (-7) vs. ARI. Won 45-14 (Divisional)
- 2007 Patriots (-12.5) vs. NYG. Lost 17-14 (Super Bowl)
- 2004 Seahawks (-4) vs. LAR. Lost 27-20 (Wild Card)
+ Brady is 93-69-7 ATS vs. teams above .500 SU. In the last 20 years, he’s the most profitable QB ATS vs. teams above .500 SU of 252 QBs.
This season, Brady is just 2-4 ATS in this spot and just 11-10 ATS with the Bucs.
+ Tom Brady has more than double the playoff wins (35) of all the other starting QBs in the playoffs, combined (17).
Brady has 35 playoff wins since 2000. The Cowboys have 3.
+ Tom Brady is 9-9 SU, 2-16 ATS in his last 18 starts at night (2-13 ATS at night with Bucs; 1-7 ATS at home).
+ Over the last 20 years, Brady is 45-26-1 ATS (63.4%) after a SU loss. In 2022, he is 0-7-1 ATS.
+ Tom Brady as a home dog in his career: 8-4 SU and 10-2 ATS
His only two ATS losses? In 2005 vs. Peyton Manning and this season vs. Joe Burrow.
QBs Brady has been home dog against: Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, Patrick Mahomes (X2), Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning (3X), Andy Dalton, Jay Fiedler, Kordell Stewart, Kurt Warner, Doug Flutie
+ Tom Brady against the spread by time of day with Bucs
- Day: 24-16-1 ATS
- Night: 2-13 ATS
+ Brady vs. Cowboys
Brady: 7-0 SU (4-3 ATS) vs. Cowboys, his most wins without a loss against a single opponent (this is first time he’s an underdog vs. Dallas). He’s 3-0 SU vs. Dak Prescott.
Brady undefeated vs. opponents:
- 7-0 vs. DAL
- 6-0 vs. MIN
- 4-0 vs. TB
- 1-0 vs. NE
Brady has won but failed to cover his last three home games vs. Cowboys.
+ Brady is 26-29-1 ATS with the Bucs, including 4-12-1 ATS this season.
Worst Tom Brady ATS Regular Seasons
- 2022 4-12-1 ATS
- 2002 6-10 ATS – Miss playoffs
- 2015 7-7-2 ATS – Conf Championship
- 2013 8-8 ATS – Conf Championship
- 2005 8-8 ATS – Divisional Round
+ Tom Brady is 4-12-1 ATS this season. A $100 bettor would be down $846.
Least Profitable QB ATS Single Season Last 20 Years
- 2022 Tom Brady: 4-12-1 ATS (-$846)
- 2007 Marc Bulger: 2-10 ATS (-$838)
- 2008 David Garrard: 4-12 ATS (-$827)
- 2019 Mitch Trubisky: 3-11-1 ATS (-$813)
+ Brady and the Buccaneers are 2-12-1 ATS in their last 15 games
+ Brady has 131 career games with at least 300 passing yards, including the postseason, tied with Drew Brees (131) for the most such games including the playoffs in NFL history.
+ Buccaneers went 4-12-1 ATS (25%) this season. Only one other team since 1990 has made the playoffs with fewer than 5 ATS wins: 1999 Vikings 3-10-3 ATS (23.1%) — Lost, Divisional Round
+ Bucs opened +3 and have now moved down to +2.5. NFL playoff teams that become smaller underdogs (+4 to +3) have gone 43-18-2 (71%) ATS over the last 20 years, including 51-12 (81%) in 6-pt teasers.
+ The Bucs finished with the fewest rushing yards in the NFL this season. Tampa Bay will be just the third team in the last 20 years to play in the Wild Card Round averaging 80 rushing yards or fewer.
- 2014-15 Lions – Lost 24-20 at Cowboys
- 2008-09 Vikings – Lost 26-14 vs. Eagles
+ Bucs team total unders are 14-3 this season.
+ Buccaneers are failing to cover the spread by 5.7 PPG this season, 2nd-worst ATS margin in the NFL (Colts, -6.6)
+ In the first half, the under is 13-4 in the Buccaneers 17 games this season, best 1h under win pct this season.
+ In Brady’s last 19 starts for the Bucs, here are his pass TD breakdowns. Under 1.5 in 12 of 19 games. Under 2.5 in 16 of 19 games.
- 0: 1
- 1: 11
- 2: 4
- 3+: 3
Market Movers
For more information on betting percentages, line moves and ticket counts, access our Action Network odds dashboard.
Biggest NFL Wild Card Public Sides
(The most popular spread bets for Wild Card Weekend)
(-13.5) |
| 76% of bets vs. Dolphins |
(-8.5) |
| 73% of bets vs. Ravens |
(+2.5) |
| 56% of bets vs. Seahawks |
Most Bet Games by Ticket Count in Wild Card Weekend
(The most popular bet games for Wild Card Round)
(-13.5) |
| 130,000 betting tickets |
(-8.5) |
| 110,000 betting tickets |
(-3) |
| 98,000 betting tickets |
Biggest Line Moves in Wild Card Weekend
Spread Movers (lines compared to lookahead lines)
(-10.5 to -13.5) |
| 3-pt move vs. Dolphins |
(-6 to -8.5) |
| 2.5-pt move vs. Ravens |
(+3 to +2.5) |
| 0.5-pt move vs. Cowboys |
The Sharp Report
If you want to make betting decisions for yourself but don’t have the time to collect all the data, check out our NFL PRO Report. This analysis highlights five key betting signals: big money, sharp action, expert projections, expert picks and historical betting systems.
Coming Soon: Our model's odds are compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a B Grade 3.5% edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.
Player: Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Prop: Under 42.5 Passing Attempts
Prop projections and grades for every NFL player in the Action App.
How to use the Action Network's PRO Report to make your betting decisions easier.
The Big Picture
Playoff QBs: Here are how each of the potential QBs in the 2022-23 playoffs have fared in the postseason in their careers…
Super Bowl Movers: Entering the playoffs, here are the biggest movers in the Super Bowl futures at BetMGM…
SB: 50-1 (Was 150-1 last week. 50-1 is lowest since Week 10.)
SB: 40-1 (Highest SB odds of the season.)
Super Bowl Futures: Let's look into Super Bowl futures at BetMGM and how they have moved since the beginning of the season.
In the last decade, teams with 70%+ of tickets in the Wild Card round are 0-4 SU | ||
For more content on NFL betting stats and notes check out our recap page on Action Network.
Coaching Experience
Here are how each of the 14 coaches in the 2022-23 playoffs have fared in the postseason in their careers…
Spring Chicken
Teams in the Wild Card Round who failed to make the playoffs the year before, facing a team who did, have struggled mightily, going 12-28-1 ATS (30%) over the last 20 years. Those same non-playoff teams from the year prior are 37-28 ATS (57%) after the Wild Card Round.
Just An Overreaction
Recently, playoff underdogs in the Wild Card Round have excelled…
- Playoff underdogs are 36-23 ATS since 2017
- Wild Card dogs are 16-8 ats during that span
- Wild Card dogs are 20-4 when placed in any teaser in that span
- The Favorites Podcast: Time to put on your gambling game faces as the NFL Super Wild Card Weekend approaches. Six games to bet on from Saturday to Monday night, with some unfamiliar playoff faces under center. But calling the signals on the show are trusted veterans Chad Millman and Simon Hunter of Action Network, who go through the board and highlight their favorite bets early in the week.
- Action Network Podcast: It's a brand new season for NFL bettors as the postseason kicks off Saturday in San Francisco. Action Network experts Chris Raybon and Stuckey return once again to build a diverse Sunday Six Pack of picks that includes sides, a teaser and even a player prop! Together the duo runs through all six games taking place between Saturday and Monday night, highlighting a surprising number of quarterbacks making their postseason debuts.
For more Action Network podcasts, check out our page with a portfolio of 10 different options across eight different sports.
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