NFL Week 12 gets underway on Thursday Night Football with the Houston Texans and Buffalo Bills at NRG Stadium.
Tonight, I'm targeting Texans WR Nico Collins in the prop market as I believe there's an edge on his receptions over/under. Collins has been hot of late, recording 23 receptions for 303 yards over his last three games.
- For more Thursday Night Football coverage, check out our Bills vs Texans preview, which includes five picks for TNF.
Find my over/under prop bet for Collins below.
Nico Collins Props: Over/Under Pick for Receptions
Nico Collins has cleared this number in three straight games, which is notable because Davis Mills started the last two games at quarterback and came in for C.J. Stroud three games ago when Stroud exited with a concussion.
Mills has plenty of chemistry with Collins since he was the Texans' QB before they drafted Stroud — the duo has two full seasons (2021–2022) together.
However, 99% of the action has been on Collins to go over 5.5 receptions; I think the market is overlooking some factors that push my projection toward the under.
First, the Texans have averaged 70 plays per game over the last three weeks. They’ve dominated time of possession (TOP) all season, ranking third in TOP.
A big part of that is due to their elite defense preventing opponents from putting together long, clock-eating drives. That could shift tonight since they face a Bills offense that ranks second in TOP. The Texans may simply have the ball less and run fewer plays as a result.
The Bills also allow just 16.8 completions per game, the fewest in the league. That’s partly because they’re more of a run-funnel defense — 17th in DVOA against the pass and 30th against the run.
This sets up as a spot where the Texans should be able to lean more on Woody Marks and Nick Chubb. I’ve seen the “Texans will be forced to throw because they’re 6-point underdogs” argument, but that really hasn’t been the case for Bills opponents even with the Bills playing with the lead at a high rate.
I’m already on the Texans' 1st-half spread at +3.5, and I think this game stays closer than the market expects. If that happens, it supports a more balanced or even run-leaning script.
When Mills does drop back, he’ll look Collins' way plenty. Mills has targeted Collins on 28% of his routes over this three-game sample.
But Collins tends to make his receptions count and usually gets his targets downfield. Just like the CeeDee Lamb under for MNF, we are totally fine with a long catch or even a long TD from Collins early. In fact, that helps the under.
Collins is also running hot on catch rate — he’s hauled in 23 of his last 36 targets, but according to NextGenStats, we would have expected closer to 19.1 based on target quality. He’s probably due to have a couple more fall incomplete. That fits his profile as someone who sees lower-percentage, high-value targets.
The Texans' WR room is also the healthiest it has been all season. Jayden Higgins saw his usage spike last week, which cut into Xavier Hutchinson’s role, but it also allowed Houston to sub Collins out more in 3-WR sets. He played only 80% of those snaps. That might not seem like much, but in a game where I’m projecting lower passing volume, even a small dip in routes run (say, 85–90%) hurts Collins more in a volume market — like receptions — than it would in yards.
After running my full projection process, similar to the Lamb breakdown on MNF, I have Collins closer to 5.1 receptions with about a 59% chance he stays under 5.5.
Again, this isn’t about “fading” Collins. It’s just the combination of matchup, expected play volume, catch regression, potential route share dip, and the way he wins as a downfield receiver all lining up on the under.
We are completely fine with the inevitable handful of catches. We just want the Texans' run game to get going early, the Bills to methodically chew clock when they have the ball, and for Collins' receptions to be explosive rather than frequent.
Pick: Nico Collins Under 5.5 Receptions (+101)
