The Houston Texans (5-5) host the Buffalo Bills (7-3) for Thursday Night Football on Nov. 20. Kickoff from NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas, is set for 8:15 p.m. ET. TNF will broadcast on Prime Video.
The Bills are 6-point favorites over the Texans on the spread (Bills -6; -105); the game total is 43.5 points. The Bills are -290 moneyline favorites while the Texans are +225 home underdogs.
Below, you can find our Bills vs Texans picks for Thursday Night Football, which include predictions for the spread, over/under, moneyline and two anytime touchdown props.
Bills vs Texans Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
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  | 8:15 p.m. | |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Thursday Night Football Odds
- Bills vs Texans Moneyline: Bills -290, Texans +225
- Bills vs Texans Spread: Bills -6 (-105), Texans +6 (-115)
- Bills vs Texans Total: 43.5
Bills vs Texans odds via bet365
Bills vs Texans Spread Prediction
Successfully running the ball is generally overrated in correlation to winning games in the modern NFL, but it does become a viable path for bad offenses to stay in games.
Thursday Night Football is a perfect example of that because the Texans boast an elite defense and they just need an ounce of assistance from the offense to keep this game close with the Bills.
Woody Marks will lead the way once again for the Houston backfield and he is in a good position to churn out yardage and keep the sticks moving. The Bills and their 31st-ranked rush defense were gashed by Sean Tucker and Rachaad White on Sunday, but the Buccaneers defense simply could not get stops. The Houston defense is on an entirely different level.
The foundation of the Bills offense is their rushing attack, but the Texans have limited opposing running backs to 3.6 yards per carry on the season. Their sound defensive play up front — combined with a pass rush that ranks second in pressure rate — can give Josh Allen issues in this game, similar to a season ago when Allen had one of the worst games of his career against this defensive unit. Allen completed just 9-of-30 passes at 4.4 yards per attempt against the Texans in Week 5 of 2024.
I like this spot for the Texans and the matchup here — take the points with the home underdog on Thursday.
Underdogs of 6-to-10 points on Thursday Night Football are 14-4 (77.8%) against the spread (ATS) since the beginning of the 2022 season.
Pick: Texans +6 (-110)
Bills vs Texans Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
A Thursday Night Football game with the Davis Mills-led Texans feels like a pretty solid under spot. However, the market has been all over that line of thinking, pushing the total down from 46.5 to 43.5. At a certain point that becomes an overcorrection.
Especially when the other team involved is the Bills, who are averaging just under 30 points per game, tied for fourth in the NFL. While they typically need to be pushed by their opponents to really put up a big number, they’ve had plenty of easy wins this season where they topped 30 points.
While the Texans have one of the league’s best defenses, they’ve allowed around 30 points to lesser offenses (Jaguars and Seahawks) so it doesn’t seem like a stretch for Buffalo to get there. With the total as low as it is, Buffalo getting to 30 and the Texans scoring two touchdowns would be enough to hit the over.
There’s a chance this one continues to drop since most sportsbooks have more juice on the under than the over at the time of writing. For that reason I’ll be waiting until closer to kickoff before putting my bet in, but the best current line is over 43.5 at -105 on FanDuel.
Pick: Over 43.5 (-105)
Bills vs Texans Moneyline Prediction
Like John above, I like the Texans to cover the spread at +6 — but I also like Houston enough to have a play on them to win outright on the moneyline.
The Texans enter tonight's game allowing 16.3 points per game, which is the best mark in the league. They’ve given up just 258.1 total yards per game, which is one of the lowest marks in the league.
Opponents have gained only 4.6 yards per play, placing the Texans among the top defenses in that category, and the unit has allowed 87.1 rushing yards per game, which reinforces the strength of their front.
These defensive metrics keep Houston competitive in low-scoring, possession-driven games. The Bills have allowed the third-most EPA per rush attempt. Woody Marks and Nick Chubb are going to control this matchup.
Pick: Texans Moneyline (+240)
Bills vs Texans Anytime Touchdown Prop
This one isn't for the faint of the heart considering Davis Mills isn't exactly known for his rushing prowess — but the odds are too good for me to ignore.
Mills picks his spots on the ground, and you might remember he scored the game-winning touchdown against the Jaguars in Week 10, when he pulled off a 14-yard score. He logged two rushing touchdowns in 2022 when he played in 15 games.
Mills has a decent shot to score again tonight as the Bills' rush defense has been shredded lately — they allowed three rushing touchdowns to the Buccaneers on Sunday (one of those to QB Baker Mayfield). The Bills are last in the NFL with 17 rushing touchdowns allowed.
This is a 0.25 unit play for me instead of my usual 0.5 since this is a long-shot pick.
Pick: Davis Mills Anytime Touchdown (+1400)
Bills vs Texans Anytime TD Prediction
Tyrell Shavers came out of nowhere on Sunday for 90 receiving yards and a touchdown — we may see something similar tonight.
Shavers played over 50% of the snaps against the Bucs, and with Mecole Hardman, Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel and Dalton Kincaid out again tonight, Shavers could be in line for even more snaps.
Shavers hasn't been targeted in the red zone this season, but that may change due to the lack of options. Plus, he's a threat for a deep ball.
I have the true odds here around +400.
Pick: Tyrell Shavers Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+500)
