Raiders-Ravens Betting Preview: Can You Trust Lamar Jackson as a Double-Digits Favorite

Betting odds: Oakland Raiders at Baltimore Ravens

• Spread: Ravens -11
• Over/Under: 42.5
• Time: 1 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: The public isn’t buying into the idea of Lamar Jackson as a double-digit favorite. The abysmal Raiders are commanding 48% of spread bets 55% of the money at the time of writing (see live odds and data here).

The line hasn't moved much, though, and sharp bettors are still weighing in on the spread. — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: John Harbaugh enters this game with an 81-81-8 regular season record against the spread as Ravens head coach.

One area where he's struggled? When playing bad teams (won fewer than 25% of their games), Harbaugh is just just 4-10 against the spread (28.6%) since 2010, making him the least-profitable coach in the NFL in that spot, losing bettors six units. — Evan Abrams

According to our Bet Labs data, teams favored by double digits against bad opponents (won 25% of their games or less) have struggled to cover, going 105-132-5 (44%) ATS since 2003. — John Ewing

Did you know? Jackson this week will become the first Ravens quarterback not named Joe Flacco to be listed as a favorite in consecutive starts since Kyle Boller in 2007. — Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Ravens offensive line vs. Raiders pass rush

The Raiders are the only team in the league without double-digit sacks for the season (nine sacks total). For context, the Ravens sacked Marcus Mariota 11 times in a Week 6 blowout of the Titans.

The Ravens’ offensive line is tentatively expected to have left tackle Ronnie Stanley (leg), but right tackle James Hurst (back) looks like he'll sit.

Ultimately, it’s hard to see a Raiders’ front-seven without a single player graded among PFF’s top-30 defenders this season pressuring Lamar Jackson too often. — Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Raiders

The Ravens will likely again be without Flacco (hip) and right tackle Hurst (back). Slot corner Tavon Young (ankle), left tackle Stanley (leg and linebacker Tim Williams (ankle) aren’t guaranteed to suit up either.

The Raiders are really thin at receiver with Jordy Nelson (knee) and Martavis Bryant (knee) potentially joining Brandon LaFell (Achilles, IR) on the bench, but their other starters are all expected to suit up.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Willie Snead is one of nine players with at least seven targets in seven consecutive games, and he had a team-high eight targets in Jackson’s first career start last week.

The only problem is that Jackson threw only 19 total targets. For reference, Flacco’s fewest pass attempts in a game this season was 34 back in Week 1.

While Snead carries some upside this week, don't forget about Smokey Brown, whose big-play ability has as good a chance as ever of cashing in this week against one of only two defenses in the league that has allowed double-digit completions of 40-plus yards this season.

Snead and Brown cost $4,400 and $5,400, respectively, on DraftKings and each carry projected ceilings of at least 18 points. — Hartitz

Bet to watch: Ravens -11

This may seem like the squarest of the square plays, but after Oakland won last week I’m sure they are at least getting some attention in the market from bettors as valuable.

I don’t buy it at all, though.

We already know how poorly this team is being coached and managed, and we also know how much Jon Gruden hates traveling (during their London trip he talked at great length about his dislike for long travel).

In their first trip to the East coast this season, the Raiders lost by eight to the Dolphins. And in the aforementioned London game, they lost by 24 to the Seahawks, though it might as well have been a million.

Now on back-to-back travel weeks (they were in Arizona last week), Oakland faces a mobile quarterback who requires different game-planning. I trust Gruden exactly 0% to have his team ready to play and prepared in this spot. — Ken Barkley

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.