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Bears vs Packers Odds, Pick, Prediction: Betting Total With Banged-Up Quarterbacks

Bears vs Packers Odds, Pick, Prediction: Betting Total With Banged-Up Quarterbacks article feature image
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Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers.

Bears vs Packers Odds

Sunday, Dec. 4
1 p.m. ET
FOX
Bears Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+4.5
-118
44.5
-115o / -105u
+176
Packers Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-4.5
-104
44.5
-115o / -105u
-210
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

The buildup to this rivalry game has been all about the status of the two starting quarterbacks.

Fortunately for us, it looks like both Aaron Rodgers and Justin Fields are going to suit up. Rodgers never seemed particularly worried about his status, while Fields got two full practices in at the end of the week.

The Packers played decently against the Eagles last week, despite a few bad Rodgers turnovers, while the Bears got eviscerated by Mike White and the Jets. To make matters even worse for Chicago, receiver Darnell Mooney was placed on injured reserve this week with his ankle injury.

Let’s find a pick in this matchup.

Bears vs. Packers Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Bears and Packers match up statistically:

Bears vs. Packers DVOA Breakdown
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 9 31
Pass DVOA 16 30
Rush DVOA 6 25
Offense
Defense
Edge
Overall DVOA 22 21
Pass DVOA 10 12
Rush DVOA 27 29

Even with Fields and Mooney healthy, the Bears ranked 27th in Pass DVOA. Without Mooney, it’s tough to envision Chicago having any success through the air this week. Green Bay has been stingy against the pass all season, despite the underwhelming record.

Last week, this Bears offense flowed through running back David Montgomery, who saw 14 rush attempts and four targets. Montgomery had a great deal of success in the first matchup between these teams (Week 2), rushing for a season-high 122 yards on just 15 carries. With Fields seemingly ready to go, I’d expect an extremely run-heavy game plan against the Packers, even without running back Khalil Herbert.


Bet Green Bay vs. Chicago at FanDuel


As for the Packers, they may have a budding superstar on their hands in Christian Watson, who looked electric yet again last week and took a slant from Jordan Love 63 yards to the house in the fourth quarter. The Bears rank 25th in pass defense DVOA and 26th in yards per pass attempt allowed, so I would expect another strong effort from Watson in this spot.

The way the Packers want to move the ball, however, is on the ground, and they finally got AJ Dillon going last week. Dillon’s first touch resulted in a 20-yard scamper to the end zone, and he finished with eight carries for 64 yards. Aaron Jones looked equally as electric and amassed 99 yards from scrimmage, including an impressive 30-yard touchdown catch on a broken play.

With Rodgers either limited or out, I would expect an extremely run-heavy approach.

Betting Picks

The state of both offenses isn’t great right now, and with both teams wanting to run the ball at a high rate (Chicago is No. 1 in rushing play percentage), there should be a bunch of clock-killing drives.

Regardless of how healthy Fields is, I don’t see the Bears having a ton of offensive success and  could see this being a 20-17 type game.

Give me the under in this spot.

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