Packers vs. Chiefs Odds: Sharps Betting on Mahomes’ Potential Return

Last Thursday, Patrick Mahomes suffered a dislocated kneecap against the Broncos. Generally speaking, a kneecap rests on the front of one's leg, thus causing some concern around last year's MVP and his status going forward.

Most folks would be laying on the couch for an extended period of time after such an injury, but Mahomes has practiced for two straight days.

Look at that! He can walk, skip and hop just like nothing happened!

Odds as of Thursday at 3 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Meanwhile, Andy Reid has refused to rule him out for Sunday night's game against the Packers, too. Initial reports had him missing a few weeks or so, but perhaps that's not going to be the case.

Let's just say sharp bettors have taken note of these developments.

The lookahead line for this game had the Chiefs between -3.5 and -4, but that changed in a big way following the Mahomes injury. With Matt Moore expected to start, the line reopened at GB -3.5, and early sharp action on the Packers caused the line to balloon up to GB -5.5.

That's a nine-point dropoff!

Since Tuesday, however, the sharps have been hammering the Chiefs to no end. After the initial action on the Packers, there's been 13 (thirteen!) consecutive bet signals on Kansas City, including four on Thursday at +4.

With that said, most books around the market are back down to 3.5, though there are still some heavily juiced +4s available. Kansas City is still getting just 30% of bets, but 40% of the cash.

This sharp action doesn't mean that Patrick Mahomes is definitely playing on Sunday night, but given the potential line movement if he can play, the sharps are taking their chances. I think it's safe to say he won't be 100%, but the Chiefs would still be favored. Talk about closing line value.

Even if Mahomes doesn't play, the Chiefs might be a solid bet at +4 or higher. Before the season began, Mahomes was listed as a Tier One quarterback by Vegas, worth 6+ points. Nine points may be a bit of a stretch, especially considering Matt Moore is at least somewhat competent as a backup.

Taking the Chiefs with the expectation that Mahomes will play is a gamble, but it's a smart one in the eyes of professional bettors.