The Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) and Chicago Bears (7-3) face off in Week 12 NFL action on Sunday, Nov. 23. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Soldier Field in Chicago, Ill. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Bears are 2.5-point favorites over the Steelers on the spread (Bears -2.5), with the over/under set at 45.5 total points. Chicago is a -150 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Pittsburgh is +125 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Week 12 preview and Steelers vs Bears prediction for today's game.
Steelers vs Bears Prediction
- Steelers vs Bears pick: Steelers +2.5 (-110)
My Steelers vs Bears best bet is on Pittsburgh to cover the spread. Find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Steelers vs Bears Odds
| Steelers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Bears Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
Steelers vs Bears NFL Week 12 Preview
The Bears struggle to defend against heavy offensive formations, and that’s exactly what they're going to get from the Steelers. Chicago is allowing 6.2 yards per play against 12-personnel, which is essentially what this Steelers offense is built around.
The Steelers can run the ball effectively and utilize their tight ends. These teams feel like the same exact squad in many ways; they are the two voodoo teams of the season.
The Bears are 5-0 in one-possession games, all decided in the final minute. Those wins came against the Raiders, Commanders, Vikings, Bengals and Giants — none of which are playoff-caliber teams. Their other victories were against the Saints and the Cowboys.
Despite owning a 7-3 record, the Bears sit at a -6 point differential. This Chicago team has been extremely fortunate, mostly because of turnover luck.
The Bears are +16 in turnover margin, which is the best mark in the NFL, a territory usually occupied by Pittsburgh; the next closest team is +10.
The Bears have intercepted 15 passes; they’ve fumbled nine times and lost only two. Last week, they fumbled inside the 10-yard line and still recovered it. They’ve also fallen on seven of their opponents’ 10 fumbles.
Chicago's success in close games has been overwhelmingly driven by luck.
That said, Ben Johnson deserves some credit.
The Bears' run game is rolling and Caleb Williams is generating explosive plays downfield, but it’s still not an efficient passing offense. And the defense is poor.
Chicago's defense has only looked competent because of turnovers and an extremely soft schedule.
Both teams have defensive injuries worth monitoring, and this matchup projects to be close.
The Steelers also have the stronger outdoor kicking leg in Chris Boswell, which could matter late.
Last week, J.J. McCarthy had one of the worst starts I’ve ever seen from a quarterback through three quarters against Chicago. He was missing wide-open receivers and showed no touch. Even with two interceptions and a recovered fumble inside their own five, the Bears still trailed with a minute to go in that game.
Steelers vs Bears Prediction, Betting Analysis
I’m going with the Steelers +2.5.
If Aaron Rodgers plays, this line should be close to a pick’em, especially considering his history of dominating at Soldier Field. But even if it’s Mason Rudolph, I think he’s good enough to keep the Steelers competitive against the Bears defense.
The Bears’ run game should find success because Pittsburgh’s run defense has struggled, but the Steelers should be able to move the ball on the ground as well.
Pittsburgh is the team most likely to force the turnover regression the Bears are long overdue for. The Steelers' identity matches up well, especially against a Chicago team buoyed by luck, schedule softness and late-game variance.
The Bears have committed to the run because Ben Johnson doesn't fully trust Caleb Williams yet, and the Steelers’ defensive structure could expose Williams.
I’d shop for a +3 if possible, even if it’s expensive, because like most Bears games, this probably comes down to the final minute. However, I like the Steelers in this spot.
Pick: Steelers +2.5 (-110)
Spread
My Bears vs Steelers betting prediction is on Pittsburgh to cover the spread at +2.5.
Moneyline
No play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'm steering clear of the total in this matchup.
