Pittsburgh Steelers vs New York Jets Predictions, Picks, Odds Today

Steelers vs Jets Week 1 Preview, Prediction

My favorite total bet of the week is on ol' reliable: Mike Tomlin and the Steelers' Week 1 under. The over/under currently sits at 38.5 total points.

First off, Aaron Rodgers will be going up against one of the most blitz-friendly coaches in the league in new Jets HC Aaron Glenn right out of the gate. He ranks second among active coaches in blitz rate.

I expect Glenn to bring that same aggressiveness to this Jets defense, and that likely won't bode well for Rodgers, who ranked second-to-last in yards per attempt against the blitz last season, as well as second worst in average depth of target versus the blitz, and second worst in time to throw.

Rodgers is going to try to get the ball out quickly. That's why the Steelers went out and got Jonnu Smith.

It's just going to be a dink-and-dunk show in Pittsburgh, which isn't efficient. Rodgers averaged 5.5 yards per attempt last season. As he's grown older, he has progressively gotten worse against the blitz, which may carry a particularly adverse effect on the Steelers offense in this spot.

Looking at the other side of the ball, the Jets' self-stated mindset, echoed by multiple key members of the offense, is that they aren't really looking to throw the ball downfield. They seem content moving the ball with mid-range passes, and that's just what you get with Justin Fields at quarterback, right?

The Steelers are very familiar with Fields after having him in the building last year. They know how to game plan against him. I expect to see Pittsburgh stack the box and shut down the run game, just like almost every other team has done to find success against Fields. Make him throw the ball.

Similarly, the Jets are also very familiar with Rodgers, fresh off his two-year stint in New York. I expect their defense to be well-prepared for the Steelers' passing attack as well.

I think there's going to be a lot of running back involvement. I don't expect to see much go over the top of either defense.

And Fields, you know, for all the fond memories that we have of him ripping the ball downfield in the past, he doesn't really do that anymore, and it seems like that will be no different with the Jets this season.

At least, he hasn't been doing it in camp.

The Jets appear to be leaning into their ability to control the clock by sustaining long drives through the run game with Fields. They want to be physical up front and tire out the opposing defense.

On the flip side, Rodgers is on the wrong side of 40, and he will likely be forced to play Hot Potato in this Steelers offense, which may ultimately work out fine in the win column, but doesn't bode well for cashing over tickets. It reminds me of what Peyton Manning and Tom Brady had to deal with late in their careers.

The Steelers have three guys in the backfield (Jaylen Warren, Kenneth Gainwell, Kaleb Johnson) they can legitimately involve in the offense. I expect to see them lean heavily on their rushing attack and short passes. Pittsburgh has one of the best defenses in the league, and New York should also see some improvement on that side of the ball this season.

Nothing really points toward either team scoring much — unless the defenses are doing it.

Tomlin and the Steelers are 58-31 to the under on the road since 2014 (65%), staying under the number by an average of 2.6 points per game in those contests. That has returned bettors 27% on their investment if they bet the under in all 89 games.

Give me the under in Jets-Steelers. I wouldn't be surprised to see this game finish at 30 total points.

Pick: Under 38.5 (-110)

Spread

I'm not betting either side of the spread in this matchup.

Moneyline

Similarly, I'm also not interested in the moneyline market for this contest.

Total

My Jets vs. Steelers best bet is on the under.

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