3 Best MNF Prop Bets for Bears vs. Redskins: Tarik Cohen’s Rushing Yards, More

3 Best MNF Prop Bets for Bears vs. Redskins: Tarik Cohen’s Rushing Yards, More article feature image

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tarik Cohen

  • We break down the three best player prop bets for Monday Night Football between the Bears and Redskins (8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN).
  • Here's how to bet David Montgomery's receiving yards, Tarik Cohen's rushing yards and Case Keenum's passing TDs.

NFL player prop bets can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.

This is where the FantasyLabs Player Props tool comes in handy.

We leverage prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.

Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.

Note that unders have typically done the best in our tool, and last season those bets were profitable even with grades below 10:

  • Unders with Bet Quality of 10: 152-57 (72.7% win rate)
  • Unders with Bet Quality of 9: 183-123 (59.8% win rate)
  • Unders with Bet Quality of 8: 413-256 (61.7% win rate)
  • Unders with Bet Quality of 7: 627-474 (57.0% win rate)
  • Unders with Bet Quality of 6: 1,005-697 (59.1% win rate)

Overall, unders in our tool hit at a 59.0% rate in 2018. Don’t take our word for it, though: Our props tool keeps track of its record at all times, so you can query performance of any time frame.

Let’s take a look at three props with a Bet Quality of nine or better for the Monday Night Football contest between the Chicago Bears and Washington Redskins.

Bears RB David Montgomery

The Pick: Under 15.5 receiving yards (-115)

Montgomery was more involved in the offense in Week 2, but the Bears’ backfield is still very much a time share. He played only 44% of snaps compared to 38% for Tarik Cohen and 25% for Mike Davis.

Montgomery did establish a clear lead in the rushing department — he totaled 18 carries compared to just seven for Cohen and Davis combined — but he’s yet to establish dominance in the receiving game. He’s caught only two passes and garnered just four targets, both of which rank third among the Bears’ RBs by a significant margin.

I’m fine with fading Montgomery in all of his receiving props, but this one is my favorite. I’d play the under up to -135.

Bears RB Tarik Cohen

The Pick: Under 16.5 rushing yards (-115)

Cohen is essentially the opposite of Montgomery at this point, with virtually all of his production coming through the air. He logged just four carries in Week 2, and he didn’t carry the ball once in Week 1. He’s basically serving as a WR who occasionally lines up in the backfield.

The Bears used their first 2019 draft pick (a third-rounder) on Montgomery, so expect him to continue to garner the majority of the rush opportunities.

This prop is a bit scary — Cohen can hit the over on just one carry — but I still think his median expectation is well below 16.5 rushing yards. I like the under up to -120.

Redskins QB Case Keenum

The Pick: Under 1.5 passing touchdowns (-160)

Keenum has been better than expected to start the season, racking up five TDs through his first two games. That said, he’s almost certainly due for some regression. His current marks in completion percentage, TD percentage and adjusted yards per attempt would all represent new career highs, and each mark is well above his career average.

The Bears also represent a difficult matchup. They ranked first in Football Outsiders’ defensive DVOA last season, including first in pass defensive DVOA. So far this season, they’ve allowed one passing TD to Aaron Rodgers and one passing TD to Joe Flacco.

The Redskins are also implied for just 18.5 points, so they don’t figure to do a ton of scoring in this contest.

Consider me skeptical that Keenum is going to put up a career-year at 31 years old. I’d play the under up to -180.

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