Bears vs. Redskins Betting Predictions & Odds: Will Chicago Right the Ship on MNF?

Bears vs. Redskins Betting Predictions & Odds: Will Chicago Right the Ship on MNF? article feature image
Credit:

Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mitch Trubisky

Bears at Redskins Betting Predictions & Odds

  • Odds: Bears -5
  • Total: 41
  • Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
  • TV Channel: ESPN

Odds above as of Sunday night and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can exclusively bet every NFL spread this season at reduced juice (-105).

The Chicago Bears hype train has hit the skids. After losing their season opener to the Packers, the Bears needed a 4th-and-15 conversion and a last-second field goal to beat the Broncos in Week 2.

Mitch Trubisky has not got off to a strong start in 2019 and if the Bears are to make good on their preseason buzz, their franchise quarterback needs to get on track. He should have a good opportunity to do just that against a Washington Redskins’ defense that has allowed 63 points in its first two games.

Trubisky’s struggles haven’t deterred bettors so far as 61% of the bets are on Chicago to cover as of Sunday night.

Should you fade the public on Monday Night Football? Our analysts break down the most important angles of this game, complete with a comparison to Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a staff pick.

Monday Night Football Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Bears

The Bears will be without DT Bilal Nichols (hand), but outside of that, everyone else looks like they’re trending towards playing.

The Redskins will be without Jordan Reed (concussion), CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (leg, injured reserve) and potentially CB Quinton Dunbar, who hasn’t practiced all week with a knee injury. Rodgers-Cromartie filled in for Dunbar in Week 2 when he was out, so the Redskins could be even thinner in the secondary. Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Sunday evening.

Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds

  • Projected Spread: Bears -4
  • Projected Total: 42

I don’t currently see any value on what should be a real doozy of a Monday Night Football game.

Typically we would expect a favorite like the Bears to get a bit more action on MNF, but Trubisky has looked so lost that I don’t think the public will be willing to back them on the road.

I’m not expecting the lines to move much between now and kickoff as this matchup likely isn’t going to draw as much handle as MNF games typically do or have as much conviction from either the public or sharps. Sean Koerner

Biggest Mismatch

Chicago Run Defense vs. Washington Run Offense

The Bears have been incredibly stout against the run. Chicago has held its first two opponents (Packers and Broncos) to 129 rushing yards and 3.1 rushing yards per attempt. Washington will need to find success with a running game that only ranks 29th in Football Outsiders’ run offense DVOA.

The Redskins offensive line has struggled mightily without All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams. Washington’s running backs are averaging an anemic 2.5 yards per carry. If the Redskins want to have a chance in this game, they will need a huge game from 34-year-old Adrian Peterson who totaled just 25 yards on 10 rushing attempts last week or Chris Thompson, whose 4.47 40-yard dash speed may provide a more efficient change-of-pace option than the veteran Peterson. Thompson’s receiving ability should certainly keep the Bears off balance. Washington’s best hope is for a strong defensive performance that provides short fields for their offense.

This is the biggest mismatch for Washington, and one they will need to solve to have any hope of moving the ball against the top-rated defense of Chicago. Mike Randle

Expert Pick

Chad Millman: Redskins +5

The answer: Luke Falk. Josh Rosen. Joe Flacco. Joe Freakin’ Flacco!.
The question: Name a few of the many, many quarterbacks who average more yards per pass than Mitch Trubisky heading into Week 3.

The answer: DeShaun Watson. Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff.
The question: Name of the many, many quarterbacks who average fewer yards per pass than Case Keenum heading into Week 3.

That’s right, the quarterback the Bears traded up to get, bypassing Watson and Patrick Mahomes, who averages five yards per pass, is a five-point favorite on the road. This, to me, is a classic p-cubed game: Public Perception Point spread.

The Bears stout defense is favored against a Redskins team that is consistently degraded by the public and inflated as an underdog by bookmakers. They know you hate Washington. They know you keep hearing announcers say this about Trubisky: “He’s so good at getting the ball out of his hands fast. When he does that he’s deadly.”

Note to talking-head experts, the problem with your theory is what happens next: Trubisky isn’t exactly a speed reader when it comes to defenses. If he doesn’t see his first read. he doesn’t see much at all.

Meanwhile, Keenum is completing nearly 70% of his passes, has yet to throw a pick and has done it against two division foes who happen to be the best of the division, Philly and Dallas. While the Redskins D is dreadful, truly, an awful group that is the sole reason this team is actually winless, is Trubisky good enough to take advantage of that? Not likely. This is still a league where you have to be quarterbacks. And if you give me the better quarterback as a home underdog of more than a field goal, that’s a take.