Rams vs Colts Odds, Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 4
Getty Images. Pictured: Matthew Stafford (left) and Michael Pittman (right).
Rams vs Colts Odds
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -105 |
Rams vs. Colts odds now have Los Angeles as a one-point favorite after some odds movement on Sunday morning.
Both the Rams and the Colts have exceeded market expectations through the first three weeks of the season. With both of their offensive lines in turmoil, I will side with the team that's better in the trenches, and with the more experienced signal-caller.
Let's preview the game and make our Rams vs. Colts pick.
The Colts are only averaging 4.6 yards per play on offense, which is 25th in the league. There is a risk that both starting tackles and center Ryan Kelly could miss this game.
Kelly is the top-rated center in football, according to Pro Football Focus. His replacement, Wesley French, is 34th out of 34 qualifying players. Needless to say, this would be an immense downgrade, especially when facing the likes of Aaron Donald.
Guard Quenton Nelson has also missed practice this week due to a toe injury — and even if he is in the lineup, he has not played like his dominant self to begin the season, ranking 33rd out of 74 qualifying guards, according to PFF.
Th Colts offensive line ranks 22nd in pass block win rate, and may have to turn to third-string left tackle Blake Freeland, who has never played a snap at the NFL level.
Anthony Richardson may have limited time in the pocket against a defense that has the third-best completion percentage over expectation in the league. The Rams only have five sacks this season, but it wouldn’t surprise me if they match that number with the Colts offensive line in shambles.
Bet Los Angeles vs. Indianapolis at FanDuel
While the Rams offensive line performed terribly in primetime on Monday night, they will get some reprieve against a Colts front that has a pressure rate of only 30.4% (26th).
The centerpiece of the Colts' front seven, DeForest Buckner, has missed practice every day this week with groin and back injuries. This is yet another factor that tips the scales to the Rams winning in the trenches.
The Colts have played man on the back end of their defense at an 8.2% rate, which is the lowest in the league and well below the 25% league-wide average.
According to Sharp Football, Stafford has thrived against zone coverage this year, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt, which is good for eighth. If the Colts can't bother Stafford with pressure and opt to sit back in zone coverage, it is a recipe for disaster. Stafford has completed 71.1% of his passes when he is comfortable in the pocket — that number dips to 40% when faced with pressure.
Rams vs. Colts
Betting Picks & Predictions
The Rams opened as short underdogs before sharp money flooded in and made them favorites.
In the 22 games in which Sean McVay has opened as an underdog of fewer than seven points, he has covered the number at a 59.1% rate. The short week and long travel may be a concern, but it hasn’t seemed to bother the Stafford and McVay duo as they are 3-1 against the spread on short weeks.
McVay has also had success traveling to the Eastern Time Zone, covering at a 68.7% rate, as Evan Abrams pointed out in his Week 4 betting primer.
Stafford has returned to play at a high level this season, boasting a big-time throw percentage of 6.9%, which is the second highest in football. His counterpart, Richardson, has yet to make a single throw of that nature. With Richardson’s team likely to lose the battle up front, he will need to put his body on the line to make plays, something he may be apprehensive to do after sustaining an injury in each game he’s played.
I expect the Rams to take advantage of this favorable matchup and get the road victory.
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