My NFL player props were 9-4 for the Sunday slate in Week 2. We'll look to keep the good times rolling with two picks tonight.
Check out my Saints vs. Panthers and Browns vs. Steelers player props below.
Hayden Hurst
Under 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110, bet365)
The Saints used man coverage at the second-highest rate in Week 1. Hurst averaged 0.3 yards per route run last season against man coverage, ranking 30th of 31 qualified tight ends.
The Saints are also an abysmal matchup for tight ends. They allowed the fewest yards per game to opposing tight ends last season and held Titans TEs to zero yards in Week 1. Demario Davis, Pete Werner and Tyrann Mathieu all do a great job covering tight ends.
Plus, we should see Adam Thielen and Jonathan Mingo have their target shares increase moving forward. That's most likely to cut into Hurst's workload. I project him to stay under this line around 62% of the time and would bet it down to 26.5.
Najee Harris
Under 13.5 Rush Attempts (-120, DraftKings)
Right before the Steelers' opener against the 49ers, news broke that there would be a near-even split in backfield touches for Harris and Jaylen Warren. I predicted it would happen a bit later in the season, but it wasn't a good sign for Harris for it to happen in Week 1.
While Harris ended up with twice as many rush attempts as Warren, they played the exact same number of early-down snaps, which are the plays most likely to have a rush attempt. So, I do think their rush attempts will be a bit closer going forward if that's the case.
The Steelers had the fourth-highest pass rate over expected last week, which takes their getting blown out by San Francisco into context. The overall play volume for this game will be a bit lower, which will help us in this market.
I'm projecting this closer to 12.5, but every attempt in this market is massive. There's an 8-10% chance he gets 13 rush attempts on the dot.
I have Harris projected to stay under this 13.5 number 60% of the time, but I think we have a couple extra paths for the under to hit.
