San Diego Fleet-Salt Lake Stallions AAF Betting Guide: Roll with Josh Woodrum?
Courtesy of @TheAAF/Twitter. Pictured: Salt Lake QB Josh Woodrum
Betting Odds: San Diego Fleet at Salt Lake Stallions
- Spread: Stallions -3
- Over/Under: 40.5
- Time: 8 p.m. ET on Saturday
- TV: NFL Network
Betting market: Neither the spread nor game total have moved since open.
Week 7 Takeaways
San Diego’s 32-15 Loss to Arizona
Mike Bercovici had another up-and-down performance, completing 22-of-43 (52%) passes for 310 yards (7.2 yards per attempt) with a touchdown … and two interceptions.
The backfield has dwindled down to Bishop Sankey (51% snaps in Week 7) and Terrell Watson (38%) after early-season stud Ja’Quan Gardner was placed on the injured reserve list. Meanwhile, slot receiver Nelson Spruce caught a league record 12-of-14 targets for 146 scoreless-yards.
Salt Lake’s 19-15 Loss to San Antonio
Josh Woodrum had a meh performance against the Commanders, completing 22-of-35 (63%) passes for 229 yards (6.5 Y/A) with a touchdown and an interception.
Slot receiver De’Mornay Pierson-El (5-68-0) and tight end Nick Truesdell (4-74-0) continued to work as the Stallions’ undisputed top-two pass-game targets. Meanwhile, the backfield has morphed into a two-back committee featuring Joel Bouagnon on early downs and short-yardage situations with Terron Ward coming in on passing downs.
Which team is healthier? Salt Lake
The Fleet are reeling, as difference-makers Dontez Ford (ankle) and Gardner (shoulder) were placed on injured reserve on Wednesday. They re-signed Paul James to replace Gardner. The only other injury to worry about appears to be tight end Gavin Escobar, who was limited in practice to start the week.
Stallions offensive lineman Nick Callender was forced out of last week’s game early, but Salt Lake is otherwise believed to be mostly healthy.
Key matchup: Josh Woodrum vs. San Diego’s Pass Rush
San Diego boasts Pro Football Focus’ best overall pass rush thanks in large part to stud defensive end Damontre Moore, who has been arguably the league’s best overall edge defender through seven weeks.
Still, Woodrum is positioned for success with the league’s quickest average release (2.21 seconds). He threw for 380 yards against the Fleet in Week 5 and hasn’t reached even 250 passing yards in another game.
The Fleet’t ferocious front-seven has been the league’s second-best unit in yards per carry allowed, so Woodrum’s ability to quickly and efficiently get the ball out of his hands and to his playmakers on the outside will be pivotal for the Stallions’ chances at establishing some consistent offense.
DFS edge: San Diego WRs
The aforementioned loss of Dontez Ford for the season opens up a ton of salary-saving opportunity for the Fleet’s new starting wide receivers.
Both Brian Brown and Francis Owusu have sub-$4k salaries and played over 80% snaps last week https://t.co/fza8KWPDLY
— Ian Hartitz (@Ihartitz) March 27, 2019
Spruce easily led the way in targets in Week 7, although he wound up playing just 46% of the offense’s snaps and doesn’t regularly line up in 2-WR sets.
Each receiver is in play considering Bercovici has emerged as the position’s most fantasy-friendly signal-caller. He boasts league-high marks in passing yards (925) and passing touchdowns (5) between Weeks 5 and 7 thanks to a gunslinger mentality that’s resulted in the second-most deep-ball attempts (20-plus yards downfield) over the past three weeks.
Bet to watch: Stallions -3
The Fleet defeated the Stallions 27-25 at home during Week 5 in what was maybe the best game of the season. But I like the Stallions to rebound and win this one with Woodrum’s quick release and general ability to consistently keep games close.
Salt Lake hasn’t lost by more than four points when getting a full game from Woodrum.