Scotty Miller Prop Bets: Fade the Bucs’ Receiver With Antonio Brown Back in Super Bowl 55
Jamie Squire/Getty Images. Pictured: Buccaneers WR Scotty Miller
Super Bowl 55 brings with it a whole host of player prop opportunities, which I plan to exploit with full enthusiasm as we approach kickoff.
To leverage our projections and sort through all the player props available at different sportsbooks, use our new Props Tool at Action Labs.
Here’s my breakdown of Buccaneers wide receiver Scotty Miller and the props of his that I plan to bet.
Scotty Miller Prop Bets
Under 20.5 Yards Receiving
Miller has a number of factors working against him.
First of all, No. 3 wide receiver Antonio Brown (knee) returned to full practice on Thursday and is on track to play in the Super Bowl. While that’s good for the Buccaneers, that’s massively detrimental to Miller’s production: In his 10 games with Brown, Miller has gone over 20.5 yards receiving just twice.
On top of that, Miller has recently had to compete with rookie Tyler Johnson for playing time. In the regular season, Miller played well ahead of Johnson first as a starter and then as a rotational receiver once Brown joined the team, but in the postseason they have had similar usage.
- Scotty Miller (3 games): 44 snaps | 30 routes
- Tyler Johnson (3 games): 46 snaps | 28 routes
With Brown playing ahead of him and Johnson pressing him for snaps, Miller will have an especially hard time hitting the over.
And none of this takes into account his matchup. As I mention in my Super Bowl WR/CB matchup breakdown, the Chiefs are tough against opposing receivers.
They don’t have any truly dominant corners but in the regular season, they were No. 2 in fewest yards allowed to wide receivers with 2,159, and that’s a function of their scheme, which is designed to limit big plays deep and on the perimeter.
Essentially, the Chiefs pass defense is structured to funnel production away from wide receivers and toward tight ends and running backs, and that’s not good for Miller.
We saw this dynamic at work when the Bucs played the Chiefs in Week 12, when the tight ends and running backs combined for 187 yards receiving while Miller had zero yards on one target and 10 snaps.
The matchup is tough — and Miller probably won’t get enough playing time anyway.
- Action: Under 20.5 (-105) at FanDuel
- Limit: Under 15.5 (-110)
Under 1.5 Receptions
In his 10 games with Brown, Miller has gone over 1.5 receptions just once. And the Chiefs held opposing wide receivers to a league-low 169 receptions in the regular season.
I can’t imagine being a living, breathing human being with free will and a ready bankroll and not betting this prop.
- Action: Under 1.5 (-162) at DraftKings
- Limit: Under 1.5 (-200)
Matthew Freedman is 1,004-797-37 (55.7%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.