Seahawks vs. 49ers Odds, Predictions, Picks, Spread: Bet The Underdog In This Week 4 NFL Matchup
Michael Hickey/Getty Images. Pictured: Seahawks QB Russell Wilson
- The Seahawks advantage? The better quarterback. The 49ers' advantage: The overall better team.
- Our analyst explains on how he's still finding a way to bet on Seattle in this Week 4 NFL matchup despite that.
- Find 49ers vs. Seahawks odds -- including the spread and over/under -- in his betting preview of this NFC West showdown below.
|Moneyline||+115 / -135|
|Time||4:05 p.m. ET|
The Seahawks came into this season with high expectations, but after three weeks of the NFL season, they find themselves with a 1-2 record after dropping back-to-back games to the Titans and Vikings.
A loss against the 49ers could be devastating for the Seahawks’ playoff chances, as they’d find themselves at 1-3 with the rest of the division sitting at 3-1 or 4-0, depending on the result of Sunday’s matchup between the Cardinals and Rams.
Unfortunately, it doesn’t get any easier for Seattle as it hits the road for a second straight week, this time against a division rival — especially with San Francisco looking to bounce back from a disappointing 30-28 loss to Green Bay on Sunday Night Football.
Nevertheless, oddsmakers installed the 49ers as 3-point home favorites before the market pushed this spread to 2.5 (check real-time NFL odds here). The public seems to be backing the 1-2 Seahawks to bounce back from their two game losing streak, but is it warranted?
Let’s analyze both sides and find out.
Tale of Two Halves for Seattle
It’s been a tale of two halves so far this season for new Seahawks offensive coordinator Shane Waldron, whose offense has struggled in the second half of its first three games. While Seattle has scored 62 points in the first half of its first three games this season, it’s scored only 13 in the second half of those games. And they were completely shut out in the second half of last week’s 30-17 loss to the Vikings.
Even more troubling is that the Seahawks haven’t scored a single point in the third quarter through three games.
Digging even deeper into the numbers, the Seahawks have a 62% success rate in the first half of games and 46% in the second. The discrepancy can’t be understated, as this team is just 25th in passing success rate and 29th in explosive play rate in the second half.
One thing is clear: Waldron has the ability to put together solid game plans but struggles to adjust after halftime.
Even more problematic is the Seahawks’ offensive line. It’s no surprise that Russell Wilson has been pressured on 40% of his drop backs this season.
That unit will be missing Ethan Pocic (knee) and backup Kyle Fuller remains an issue with a PFF grade of 46.1 and pass-blocking grade of just 29.4, ranking 29th out of 33 centers. In addition, right tackle Brandon Shell — who has had a PFF grade of 68.1, including 67.4 in pass blocking and 71.5 in run blocking — has been ruled out.
Seattle is more than capable of scoring against this banged-up San Francisco secondary — if the Seahawks can put together a solid 60 minutes instead of just 30.
Also on the injury report, Tyler Lockett is questionable due to a hip injury but looks to be on track to play, while rookie receiver Dee Eskridge is still out with a concussion.
The Seahawks need their offense to score plenty considering their defensive struggles. Seattle ranks 25th in expected points added (EPA) per play and 23rd in Success Rate through three weeks. Even more troubling, this unit is dead-last in passing success rate, allowing a whopping 60.7% of opponent passing plays to grade out as successful. Kirk Cousins had a 68% passing success rate last week, and 52% of passing plays went for first downs.
If Wilson and the Seattle offense can’t consistently score, this team may find itself 1-3 with the Rams on deck in Week 5.
San Francisco’s Injured Defense
The 49ers come into this game ranking fifth in EPA/play and eighth in Success Rate. Of course, the issue for the 49ers offense is whether Jimmy Garoppolo can be relied upon.
Garoppolo showed reasons for optimism in the second half of the 49ers’ loss to the Packers, leading what would have been the game-winning score, but San Francisco left too much time on the clock for Aaron Rodgers to complete the comeback victory.
Garoppolo is just 11th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and 27th in Air Yards (6.0) facing defenses Lions, Eagles and Packers that rank 31st, 26th and 14th this season. Fortunately for San Francisco, the Seahawks aren’t any better defensively ranking 24th. The Niners should be able to score on Sunday.
The real issue for this 49ers team lies in the injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
This is a banged-up unit that has lost Jason Verett to a torn ACL in Week 1 and has issues everywhere in the secondary. Emmanuel Mosley has returned to the lineup, but nickel corner K’Waun Williams (out) is dealing with a calf strain, while Josh Norman (doubtful) is dealing with two bruised lungs along with tissue damage that may have caused some internal bleeding.
The Niners gave up a 7.4 yards per pass and a 53% Passing Success Rate against the Packers, and things aren’t going to get any easier against these Seahawks with Russell Wilson throwing to D.K. Metcalf and Lockett.
While the secondary has its issues, the 49ers still have Nick Bosa and Fred Warner up front. San Francisco’s defense is superior to Seattle, which gives the home team a greater margin for error on Sunday.
Wilson has dominated the San Francisco 49ers in his career, with a 15-4 record straight-up while going 13-5-1 against the spread (ATS).
Trends aside, I do think the number lends itself to taking the Seahawks as my model makes this game 49ers -1.5. Still, I can’t recommend a wager on the Seahawks at this current number of +2.5.
I believe the 49ers are the better team and are facing a Seahawks team playing its second straight road game with a struggling offensive line and a defense that truly can’t stop anyone. Of course, the Seahawks have the better quarterback in Wilson, but I’m not sure that’s enough given offensive coordinator Shane Waldron’s inability to adjust in second halves.
The public is overwhelmingly on the Seahawks, but I think the only way to back them is on 6-point teasers moving this up to +8.5 and crossing out key numbers of 3, 6, and 7.
I’d recommend playing the 49ers at -2.5 at this current price if you have to take a side while adding the Seahawks to 6-point teasers.
Lean: 49ers -2.5 (-110)
Pick: Tease Seahawks from +2.5 to +8.5