Seahawks vs. Cardinals Betting Picks & Odds: Should Seattle Be Favored by This Much?
Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3).
Seahawks at Cardinals Betting Picks & Odds
- Spread: Seahawks -5
- Over/Under: 48
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
Odds as of Thursday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
After winning close games in Weeks 1 and 2, the Seahawks fell to the Drew Brees-less Saints as home favorites. Will the Seahawks rebound on the road in Week 4? And more importantly, will they cover the spread?
Read below for Sean Koerner’s odds, mismatches to note, a profitable betting system with a match for this game and more.
Seahawks-Cardinals Injury Report
Which team is healthier? Cardinals
The Cardinals are in good shape as most players I’m tracking are trending toward playing with the exception of WR Damiere Byrd (hamstring). Byrd represents 13% of the target share on the Cardinals, which could open up more targets for Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk and KeeSean Johnson if he were to miss this game.
Rashaad Penny (hamstring) managed a limited practice on Thursday, but otherwise, they’re healthy on the offensive side of the ball. They could be down some key players on defense with DE Quinton Jefferson (hip) missing both practices so far and DE Ziggy Ansah getting downgraded to DNP on Thursday. Jefferson grades out as the Seahawks’ best overall defender, per Pro Football Focus. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Seahawks Pass Offense vs. Cardinals Pass Defense
Although the Seahawks have a run-first offense, they’re one of the most effective deep-passing teams in the league thanks to Russell Wilson, who is second to only Patrick Mahomes with his 137.5 QB rating on deep passes (20-plus yards) and 343 deep passing yards (per Pro Football Focus).
Although only 9.5% of Wilson’s completions have come on deep passes, 38.1% of his passing yardage has been earned on those attempts. When the Seahawks go downfield, they do it well.
It helps that they have two excellent deep-ball receivers in Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf, both of whom are top-10 in deep targets (7, 8), deep receiving yards (140, 149) and deep catch rate (57.1%, 50%).
As for the Cardinals, they are without starting cornerbacks Patrick Peterson (suspension) and Robert Alford (leg, injured reserve). On the outside, Metcalf and the Jaron Brown-David Moore combination should be able to exploit the fill-in corners.
And in the middle of the field, Lockett and tight end Will Dissly should dominate. Slot cornerback Tramaine Brock has allowed a 10-229-2 receiving line on 16 targets. In each game this year, he’s allowed at least 70 yards. And strong safety D.J. Swearinger is having a horrible campaign, as evidenced by his 37.5 PFF coverage grade and 8-103-3 receiving line allowed on 11 targets.
The Cardinals are one of the four most generous teams to opposing passing games with 918 receiving yards and 1,129 air yards allowed.
The Seahawks will probably rely on the running game against the Cardinals. That’s just how they operate. But when they opt for the pass — and especially when they attack downfield — they will likely have success.
Wilson has opened the season with multiple touchdowns every week and 300-plus yards passing in two of three games. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him rack up another 300-yard, multi-touchdown game against the Cardinals. — Matthew Freedman
Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Seahawks -3.5
- Projected Total: 48.5
The Cardinals are one of the most exciting teams in the league with their Air Raid and No. 1 draft pick dual-threat QB in Kyler Murray, but they’re still a very bad team.
I warned about overrating the 2-0 Seahawks last week as they won both games by a combined three points, and they’re still going to be overrated by the market. The opening number of 3.5 has jumped to 5.5. And while this does not include very valuable numbers in 4 and 5, it might end up getting up to -6, in which case we absolutely need to consider taking the Cardinals if they get to +6. — Sean Koerner
PRO System Match
Underdogs have historically performed well in division games, as increased familiarity among opponents keeps games competitive. In fact, it’s been profitable to bet small dogs in these matchups to win outright.
Even though teams matching this Pro System have a losing record of 110-113-2, bettors have still been able to turn a profit due to plus-money bets. A $100 gambler would have returned a profit of $4,770 following this strategy since 2003.
The Cardinals +200 are a match for this system. — John Ewing
Sonny Banks: Over 47 or better
We have seen for three weeks now that the Seahawks’ secondary is not what it once was. They rank in the middle of the pack for yards allowed per pass attempt, but you need to also factor in the QBs they’ve faced (Andy Dalton, Mason Rudolph for a half, and Teddy Bridgewater). They’re also not getting to the QB as much as previous seasons with a 5.08% sack rate.
Seattle is stout against the run, but the Cardinals have shown that they prefer to employ a fast-paced offense with Kyler Murray airing it out. The concern with taking the over is Seattle’s 27th-ranked offensive pace, but this should be countered by Arizona allowing 6.3 defensive yards/play, which ranks in the bottom-third of the league.
My projected total is 49.