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Super Bowl Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

Super Bowl Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer article feature image

Super Bowl Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer

Super Bowl 58 week has arrived … and it looks a little something like Super Bowl 54. The Chiefs and 49ers for the second time — the eighth time in history we've had two teams face multiple times in the Super Bowl. The last three such examples all involved Tom Brady (obviously).

Let's look at this week's slate with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Welcome to the Super Bowl version of Action Network's NFL betting primer.

All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, Feb. 11, 1 p.m. ET.


Defending History

Market Doubt

The Chiefs won the Super Bowl last year as underdogs after opening up as the favorites against the Eagles. This year, Kansas City is back and the underdogs again. This is just the third time in Super Bowl history that the defending Super Bowl champ was listed as the underdogs in the Super Bowl the next season. The previous two teams lost.

1978-79 Cowboys
1978: Beat Broncos as favorites
1979: Lost to Steelers as underdogs

2014-15 Seahawks
2014: Beat Broncos as underdogs
2015: Lost to Patriots as underdogs

2023-24 Chiefs
2023: Beat Eagles as underdogs
2024: TBD vs. 49ers as underdogs

The Chiefs would be the 4th team to close as underdogs in consecutive Super Bowls. Kansas City could be the first to win both games.

  • 1974-75 Vikings (Lost-Lost)
  • 1992-94 Bills (Lost-Lost-Lost)
  • 2014-15 Seahawks (Won-Lost)
  • 2023-24 Chiefs (Won-???)

Top Billing

Team To Beat

The San Francisco 49ers were favored in all 17 regular-season games (the only team in the NFL to do that this season) and were favorites to win the Super Bowl entering the playoffs. They're the 10th team (and the fifth 49ers team) to accomplish both in the same season since 1980. Seven of the previous nine teams made the Super Bowl — including five straight teams in the last 30 years — and four hoisted the Lombardi Trophy.

SeasonTeamFinishPlayoff Games Won
202349ers?2
2017PatriotsLost Super Bowl2
2007PatriotsLost Super Bowl2
2001RamsLost Super Bowl2
1995CowboysWon Super Bowl3
199449ersWon Super Bowl3
199249ersLost NFC Championship1
1991WashingtonWon Super Bowl3
199049ersLost NFC Championship1
198449ersWon Super Bowl3

All K.C. Love

Record High

As of Tuesday, the Chiefs are getting 67% of the betting tickets on the spread via Action Network. Over the last 20 years of Super Bowls, the record for percent of betting tickets for a team is 68% by the 2018-19 Patriots (beat Rams 13-3) and 2013-14 Broncos (lost to Seahawks 43-8).


Power of Momentum

Coming In Hot

• The Chiefs have now covered five straight games entering the Super Bowl. Kansas City is the 17th team to cover at least five straight games entering a Super Bowl. When their opponent is not on an ATS win streak of two or more games, the streaking team is 5-2 SU and 6-0-1 ATS.

• The 49ers are just the second team in the Super Bowl era to make the game losing at least three in a row against the spread. In the Super Bowl era, only one other team has entered the Super Bowl on an ATS losing streak of three or more games: the 2007-08 Patriots, who had lost five straight ATS.


Quite The Turn

Chalk To Dog

A tale of two legacies (so far). Mahomes was listed as the favorite in his first 13 playoff games prior to Super Bowl 57. Closing as an underdog against Eagles prevented him from tying Peyton Manning for the longest streak (14) as a betting favorite in the playoffs in Super Bowl history. If Mahomes closes as an underdog vs. 49ers, he will have been a 'dog in four of his last five playoff games after that 13-game favorite streak and three straight games.

In the last 20 years, Super Bowl-winning QBs are 60-24-2 ATS (71%) as an underdog in the playoffs. Those QBs are 25-8 ATS (76%) as a dog before winning the ring and 35-16-2 ATS (69%) after the ring — including, 13-4 ATS since 2018 playoffs.


San Francisco's Dilemma

Chalky Road

Entering the playoffs, the 49ers had a bye and were the betting favorite in the future odds market. Historically, pedigree hasn't led to titles.

• The 49ers were favored by an average of 8.3 points per game this season, which was highest mark in the NFL. Chiefs were just at the 4.8 mark, fourth highest. Over the last 20 years, the team that was the bigger favorite on average over the course of the season is 7-13 SU and 3-17 ATS in the Super Bowl (7-15 SU and 3-19 ATS over the last 22 years — since 2001). Prior to that stretch, these teams went 9-2 SU and 7-3-1 ATS dating back to 1990.

• San Francisco enters the Super Bowl with a slightly better SU win percentage (74%) than the Chiefs (70%) this season. In recent history, that hasn't boded well for San Francisco's side since the team with the better win percentage is 1-15 ATS in the Super Bowl since 2003.

• The 49ers had a bye week entering the playoffs. The Chiefs didn’t, playing in the Wild Card round. How much impact has the bye been when one team had it and the other didn’t entering the Super Bowl? In the Super Bowl era, teams that didn’t play in the Wild Card game – had a bye entering playoffs – facing a team who did play in the Wild Card game or didn’t have a bye, are 5-10 SU and 2-12-1 ATS.


Big Red

Power Of Rest

The Super Bowl historically has a two-week gap between the Conference Championship and the big game. For Andy Reid, that has always been an advantage across his career.

In just Week 1, Reid is 16-9 SU as a head coach. When looking at his teams when playing on 13+ days rest outside of Week 1, which is typically the normal bye week, his teams are 31-7 SU, including 26-3 SU with Mahomes and Donovan McNabb as his quarterbacks. His losses were against the Eagles this season and his two Super Bowl losses to the Bucs and Patriots.


Positive Kyle

Familiar Places

Let's start with the good when it comes to Kyle Shanahan.

The 49ers head coach is 6-0 SU as a favorite in the playoffs. He is the only coach who's 5-0 SU or better as a favorite in the playoffs since 2000.

The 49ers will also be staying on the West Coast for this game, which will be in Las Vegas. With the 49ers, Shanahan is 32-11 SU, 28-14-1 ATS when San Francisco plays on the Pacific Time after playing in the PST in their previous game, as well.

After playing in PST in his previous game, Shanahan has won 17 consecutive games SU playing in PST again, with his last loss came back in December of 2021. When Shanahan’s opponents’ previous time zone is Eastern Time, he is 15-3 SU.


Negative Kyle

Blip or Trend?

This postseason, the 49ers are 2-0 when trailing by seven or more points in the second half. San Francisco entered the playoffs this year 4-42 SU under Kyle Shanahan when trailing by seven points or more in the second half.

When Shanahan's 49ers teams are trailing entering the fourth quarter, they're 8-36 SU and 5-39 ATS, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS this season.

How do Shanahan teams perform by opponent biggest lead?

• 7 or more points: 22-45 SU (33%) and 21-46 ATS (31%)
• 9 or more points: 7-40 SU/ATS (15%)
• 14 or more points: 3-29 SU/ATS (9%)


Just Cover

On The Line

This will likely be the 31st Super Bowl with a point spread of six or fewer. The SU winner has covered the spread in 29 of 30 games. Fifteen 'dogs have won outright and 15 favorites have won outright. The Rams (-4.5) beating the Bengals by three in February 2022 broke the streak.

Drilling down further: 22 Super Bowl’s have had a spread of four or fewer points. The SU winner has covered in all 22 (11 favorites, 11 underdogs).


Playing It Close

Size Matters

Super Bowl 58 is set in Las Vegas, Nevada. In terms of distance, the 49ers will be the team closer to the Super Bowl site vs. the Chiefs. In SB history, the team closer to the site of the game is 34-23 SU. The last six SB winners have all been closer to the site of the game, including 7 of the last 8 winners.

The Super Bowl winner has been closer to the site of the game in 15 of the last 18 Super Bowls dating back to 2006.


Beat 'Em Up

Chiefs Second Halves

When the game hits the second half, the Chiefs have virtually run out the clock all season. Chiefs wins are 18-2 to the second-half under in their last 20 games and 19-1 to the fourth-quarter under.

Since 2005, the Chiefs are the most profitable team to the second-half over or under, according to Bet Labs. A $100 bettor would be up $1,474 taking second-half unders in Chiefs games this season. The next-best were the 2017 Falcons — whose offensive coordinator was Shanahan — who were 15-1-2 to the under at +$1,348.

• 2023 Chiefs: 18-2, $1,474 (unders)
• 2017 Falcons: 15-1-2, $1,348 (unders)
• 2011 Browns: 13-2-1, +$948 (unders)
• 2010 Broncos: 14-2, +$1,088 (overs)


Finishing The Job

The RB Factor

Christian McCaffrey had an unreal season scoring 21 total TDs in the regular season. CMC will be the 18th RB to make the Super Bowl after scoring 15 TDs or more from the RB position during the regular season. In 1998, Jamal Anderson faced Terrell Davis — both accomplishing the feat.

  • Of the 15 other RBs, their teams went just 5-10 SU in the SB. Since that 1998 game, these RBs teams are just 1-5 SU (Blount/NE won in 2016).
  • Of the 17 total RBs, only 8 scored TDs in the Super Bowl, with just Terrell Davis in 1998 and Emmitt Smith in 1996 being the lone RBs to score multiple times. Just 4 RBs went over 100 yds. 10 of 17 finished with fewer than 80 rush yds. Six of the RBs had 20+ TD in the regular season. Just two of those six scored in the SB (1996 Emmitt and 1984 Riggins).

17 RB avg:
18.6 carries
75.8 rush yds


Super Bowl 58

Click on one of the categories below to navigate to a specific topic.

Team-By-Team Breakdown

Sunday, Feb. 11
6:30 p.m. ET
CBS
Patrick Mahomes

Playoff Record

SU:
14-3
ATS:
12-5

2023 Record

SU:
13-6
ATS:
11-7-1

Team Stats

Team record: 14-6 SU & 12-7-1 ATS.

• First-half moneyline: 12-6-2
• Second-half under: 18-2
• First-quarter under: 11-5-3
• Fourth-quarter under: 19-1
• Team total over: 6-14

• If Chiefs win as an underdog, they'd be the seventh team in history to win as an underdog in the Divisional Round, Conference Championship and Super Bowl. The other teams: The 1981 Raiders, 2008 and '12 Giants, '13 Ravens, '18 Eagles and '21 Buccaneers.

• When the Chiefs defense allows more than 20 points this season, Kansas City is 1-4 SU and ATS. The losses were against the Lions, Broncos, Eagles and Packers, while the win came against the Bills in the Divisional Round. The Chiefs are 13-2 SU and 11-3-1 ATS when their defense allows 20 or fewer points.

• Chiefs are 9-11 against the fourth-quarter spread this season and 23-37 ATS in the fourth quarter over the past three seasons.

• The Chiefs have scored on their opening drive in eight straight playoff games. That's the longest streak in the NFL since 1991.

• Between 2020-22, Chiefs went 14-6 SU when trailing at the half. This year, they're 2-4.

• Teams that beat the Ravens in the AFC Championship Game are 0-2 ATS in the Super Bowl (2009 Steelers and '12 Patriots).

• The Chiefs are 16-5-1 ATS as underdogs since 2016, the second best in NFL behind the Steelers.

• The Chiefs are 14-6 to the under this season, which is the best mark in the NFL.

• Since 2018, Chiefs are 38-3 SU (31-10 ATS) when leading by 10 or more points at halftime. Their last loss was back in November against the Eagles, against whom K.C. led 17-7 at halftime.

• Chiefs defenses in Mahomes’ career as a starter in the regular season and playoffs according to EPA/play: 2023: fifth | 2022: 15th | 2021: 24th | 2020: 19th | 2019: 18th | 2018: 27th

Super Bowl Favorites

• The Chiefs were the seventh preseason Super Bowl odds favorite to lose outright in Week 1 in the Wild Card era (since 1990) and the first to do since the Patriots in 2017. Six of the seven still made playoffs (2002 Rams), and three have now made the Super Bowl (2023 Chiefs, 2017 Patriots, 1993 Cowboys) and one won it all (1993 Cowboys).

• The Chiefs entered the regular season as the favorites to win the Super Bowl at +650. In the Wild Card era, since 1990 – the preseason SB favorite has won title five times (Patriots in 2016 and '18, 2006 Colts, 1994 49ers and 1993 Cowboys). The favorite lost 11 times in the Super Bowl, twice lost in the conference championship, seven times in the Divisional Round, five times in the Wild Card Round and missed the playoffs three times.

• The 2023 Cheifs are the fifth defending champ in the last 25 seasons to return to the Super Bowl. The others: 2020 Chiefs (lost), 2017 Patriots (lost), 2014 Seahawks (lost) and 2004 Patriots (won).

• When the Chiefs lead early, they are tough to beat.

KC is 54-7 SU (89%) since 2018 when leading after the first quarter (best win pct of any NFL team), including 19-0 SU in the last two seasons. Their last loss came in the 2022 AFC Championship game vs. Bengals.

Patrick Mahomes

• Mahomes is 2-1 SU and ATS in Super Bowls, including one win over the 49ers in February 2020.

• Mahomes is 9-3 straight-up (SU) in his career as an underdog, the best record of any QB in the Super Bowl era with a minimum of 10 starts. He's 10-1-1 against the spread (ATS). This will be his fourth playoff game as an underdog and his fourth in a row. He has won the first three.

• This is a very successful spot for Mahomes, who's is 4-0 SU at Allegiant Stadium, 3-0 SU against the 49ers and 3-0 SU as an underdog in the playoffs.

Mahomes has played four neutral site games in his career, he is 4-0 SU/ATS, covering by 5.8 points per game – two Super Bowls and two international games against the Chargers and Dolphins. The Chiefs have scored 21 points or more in all four neutral games.

Chiefs opened as 2.5-point underdogs against the 49ers in the Super Bowl. It's just the 11th time Mahomes has opened at +2.5 or higher — he is 9-0-1 ATS (8-2 SU) in those games.

As a favorite of three or fewer points or as an underdog road/neutral, he’s 17-3-1 ATS.

• Against the cap: Here's how much of their team's salary cap the last three Super Bowl champions have taken up: 17.2%: Mahomes | 10.7%: Matthew Stafford | 12.2%: Tom Brady. This year, Mahomes takes up 16.8% of the Chiefs' cap, which would be the second-highest percentage since 1994.

Since the NFL instituted its salary cap in 1994 — only two times has a team won the Super Bowl with a quarterback taking up more than 13% of the salary cap — Steve Young in '94 and Mahomes last year. Only five QBs since Young in 1994 have won the Super Bowl while taking up more than 10% of their team’s salary cap.

• Against the NFC, Mahomes is 22-6 SU and 14-13-1 ATS in his career.

• Neutral sites: Mahomes has played four neutral-site games in his career, and he's 4-0 SU/ATS, covering by 5.8 points per game. Those games include two Super Bowls and two international games against the Chargers and Dolphins. (The 2021 Super Bowl against the Buccaneers was played in Tampa.) The Chiefs have scored 21 or more points in all four neutral-site games.

Time zones: Mahomes has played 21 games in the Pacific or Mountain time zones and is 18-3 SU and 12-8-1 ATS. His three losses were this season against the Broncos and in 2018 at the Rams and Seahawks. Since the start of the 2019 season, Mahomes is 14-1 SU in those time zones.

Teasing Mahomes: In his 12 games as an underdog, Mahomes is 12-0 in a six-point teaser. He has started 26 games either as a 'dog or favored by 2.5 or fewer points, he's 17-6-1 ATS and 21-3-2 (88%) in a six-point teaser.

Chiefs opened as 2.5-point underdogs against the 49ers in the Super Bowl. It's just the 11th time Mahomes has opened at +2.5 or higher — he is 9-0-1 ATS (8-2 SU) in those games after defeating the Ravens in the AFC Championship. In that specific spot, Mahomes is 10-0 in a six-point tease. He has covered those 10 games by 8.7 points per game. He has won and covered five in a row since 2019.

Mahomes' over/under marks: Mahomes is 37-22-1 to the under when playing at home in his career and 17-3 over the last two seasons, the most profitable home QB to under.

The over is 33-20 when Mahomes starts on the road, but he's 3-1 to the under (the one over was last year's Super Bowl) in Mahomes' four neutral-game starts with the total closer at 51.5 or higher each time.

Second-half savant: Mahomes is 12-4-1 ATS in the second half in the playoffs. He's the best QB in the second half ATS since 2005. When the Chiefs are an underdog on the full-game spread, Mahomes is 3-0 in the playoffs ATS in the second half. When he listed as a pick’em or underdog on the second-half spread, Mahomes is 5-1-1 ATS in the playoffs, covering by more than a field per game. The only loss was the AFC Championship Game in 2022 against the Bengals.

Comeback kid: Mahomes has trailed at halftime in four playoff games. His only loss was in the 2021 Super Bowl against the Buccaneers.

Under the lights: Mahomes has played in 53 "prime time" games: 17 in the playoffs, 31 regular-season night games, one European game, two early games on Monday night and two on Saturday. He's 39-14 SU and 30-22-1 ATS in those games.

• Against quality opposition In games with a spread of 3.5 or fewer points, Mahomes is 19-6 SU on the road or a neutral site. He’s 9-2 SU in his last 11 such games, which were both losses vs. Bengals.

• Mahomes is 8-2 SU in the playoffs when trailing by 7+ points at any point. His two losses vs. Tom Brady.

Public backing: Mahomes is 15-7 ATS when the Chiefs are not listed as the public side and 45-42-3 ATS when he is listed as the public side. The Chiefs haven't opened as an underdog and closed as the public side since facing the Buccaneers during the 2022 regular season, which was the only such instance since the start of the 2020 season. Overall, Mahomes is 6-0-1 ATS in this spot, covering by eight points per game.

Mahomes' ATS Numbers

• 101 games as a favorite: 50-49-2 ATS | 12 games as an under: 10-1-1 ATS

• At home: 28-29-1 ATS | Road/Neutral site: 32-21-2 ATS

• 1 p.m. ET kickoffs: 14-17-2 ATS | After 1 p.m. ET: 45-33-1 ATS

• Double-digit favorite: 11-14-2 ATS | Favored by -9.5 or fewer/As underdog: 49-36-1 ATS)

• Favored by three or fewer/As underdog: 22-8-1 ATS | Favored by -3.5 or more: 38-42-2 ATS

In the regular season

Overall: 74-22 SU and 48-45-3 ATS | At home: 35-11 SU & 20-25-1 ATS | Road/Neutral site: 39-11 SU & 28-20-2 ATS

As a favorite: 68-19 SU & 41-44-2 ATS | As an underdog: 6-3 SU & 7-1-1 ATS

In the playoffs

Overall: 14-3 SU, 12-5 ATS | At home: 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS | Road/Neutral site: 4-1 SU & ATS

As a favorite: 11-3 SU & 9-5 ATS | As an underdog: 3-0 SU & ATS

• Mahomes career record based on rest (not counting Week 1)

6 days or fewer: 13-3 SU & 10-6 ATS | 7 days: 44-14 SU & 30-27-2 ATS | 8+ days: 25-7 SU & 16-15-1 ATS

Mahomes vs. San Francisco

• The 49ers sack the opposing QB at a rate of 4.9% (the opponents percentage of plays that end as a sack while on defense) this season. When Mahomes faces teams at a rate of 4% or higher on road or at a neutral site, he's 16-5-1 ATS in his career, including 7-0 over the last two seasons. That 16-5-1 mark is the second best over the last 20 years of 213 QBs behind only Eli Manning. Andy Reid is 29-14-1 ATS last 20 years in this spot, too.

• Mahomes is 26-5 SU and 19-12 ATS against defenses that are allowing fewer than 20 points per game in his career. The 49ers are allowing 18.4 points per game this season.

Mahomes is 16-1 SU in these games when they are road/neutral. His one loss was against Titans in 2019. Since then, Mahomes has won 14 straight starts that meet this criteria. One more step: In January and February, Mahomes 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS against defense that meet this criteria.

• Mahomes is 56-13 SU (81%) in November or later. He’s 13-5 SU against the NFC in that timeframe, but he lost two straight games to the Packers and Eagles this season.

• Mahomes is 43-12 SU on the road or at a neutral site in his career and 30-8 in that scenario when a favorite of three or more points.

Mahomes Hits the Road

The AFC Championship Game was Mahomes’ 15th game on a road trip, which constitutes play a second (or more) consecutive game on the road. He's 13-2 SU and 8-7 ATS. He was listed as an underdog in three of those games, going 4-0 SU.

Super Bowl 58 will be the 4th game of Mahomes’ career where he will play his third straight game away from home. He is 3-0 SU in the previous three games in this spot.

Dec. 18. 2022: Chiefs -14.5 at Texans, won by six
Nov. 18, 2019: Chiefs -5.5 vs. Chargers (neutral site), won by seven
Sept. 16, 2018: Chiefs +4.5 at Steelers, won by five

Mahomes In the History Books

• Chiefs have 23 SU playoff wins all-time. 14 of those 23 have come from Mahomes (61%). KC had 4 total SU playoff wins since the merger between 1970-2017 (pre-Mahomes).

• Best playoff winning percentage ever, minimum 10 starts:

QBSU RecordWin %
Bart Starr9-190%
Patrick Mahomes14-382.4%
Jim Plunkett8-280%
Terry Bradshaw14-573.3%
Troy Aikman11-472.9%
Tom Brady35-1369.6%

• Most career playoff wins:

QBWins
Tom Brady35
Joe Montana16
Patrick Mahomes14
Peyton Manning14
John Elway14
Terry Bradshaw14

Andy Reid

• Super Bowl record: 2-2 SU & 3-1 ATS overall,  2-1 SU & ATS with the Chiefs

• Coaching experience in the Super Bowl doesn’t really matter. The coach with more experience is just 19-17 SU and 17-19 ATS. When they have coached in two or more Super Bowls, they're just 11-14 SU and 9-15-1 ATS.

Reid has coached in three more Super Bowls than Shanahan. This will be only the 13th Super Bowl where one coach has coached three or more than the other. In those games, the experienced coach is still just 6-6 SU & ATS.

• This is the fourth coaching rematch in the Super Bowl. Here are the first three, with the coach whose name is in bold indicating they won both meetings: Tom Coughlin vs. Bill Belichick, Jimmy Johnson vs. Marv Levy and Chuck Noll vs. Tom Landry.

• With eight or more days of rest, Reid's teams are 59-27 SU and 48-37-1 ATS. That's the fourth-best SU record and second-best ATS mark over the last 20 years.

When facing an opponent that also has had eight or more days of rest, Reid's teams are 23-17 SU and 23-16-1 ATS.

With 12 or more days of rest, Reid's teams are 25-7 SU and 18-14 ATS. When facing an opponent with the same rest advantage, Reid is 3-4 SU and 4-3 ATS.


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Sunday, Feb. 11
6:30 p.m. ET
CBS
Brock Purdy, SF

Playoff Record

SU:
4-1
ATS:
2-3

2023 Record

SU:
14-4
ATS:
9-9

Team Stats

Team record: 14-5 SU & 9-10 ATS

• First-half over: 13-6
• First-half moneyline: 14-4-1
• Second-half ATS: 12-7
• Second-half under: 10-8-1
• First-quarter ATS: 11-8
• First-quarter ML: 11-6-2
• Fourth-quarter ATS: 14-5
• Score first: 13-6

• The 49ers are currently trending in the wrong direction. They have lost three straight ATS entering this game, including seven straight at home. San Francisco had won 10 straight ATS at home before this streak and were 16-2 in their previous 18 games.

This season, the 49ers at home are 7-3 SU and 3-7 ATS and 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS on the road

• Since 1980, San Francisco is the 21st team to be favorites in all of their regular season games. Six of those teams won the Super Bowl: 2018 Patriots, 1998 Broncos, '95 Cowboys, '94 49ers, '91 Washington and '84 49ers.

Ten of those teams made the Super Bowl (four lost), while four of the 14 to make their conference's championship game lost. Six of those teams lost in the Divisional Round or earlier.

• The 49ers entered the playoffs as the favorite to win it all. Such teams that have won the Super Bowl since 2000: 2022 Chiefs, 2016 Patriots, '13 Seahawks and the 2003 and '04 Patriots.

In the Wild Card era (since 1990), 11 teams favored to win it all before the playoffs have won the Super Bowl, seven lost the Super Bowl, seven lost their conference championship game and nine lost in the Divisional Round.

Dominance Hasn't Continued in Playoffs

• The 49ers dominated opponents in wins during the regular season this year. Their 11 wins of 10 or more points were the most in the NFL. In the playoffs, though, San Francisco has won its two games by a combined six points.

San Francisco had nine wins of 16 or more points this season, which was tied with the Cowboys for the most in the NFL. Only seven teams have won nine or more games by 16 or more points during a regular season in the Super Bowl era, but only one won the Super Bowl: the 1999-2000 Rams.

Of those seven teams, only once did these teams win by 14 or more points in any playoff game. The 49ers' two wins by six total points is by far the fewest entering a Super Bowl.

These are the seven teams to win 11 or more regular-season games by 10 or more points in the Super Bowl era and make the Super Bowl. The 49ers' +6 point differential in the playoffs is the smallest of those seven teams.

• San Francisco trailed by 17 points in the NFC Championship Game. That's tied for the third-largest comeback in conference championship history, tied with the 2012 49ers, who lost the Super Bowl to the Ravens.

Brock Purdy

• Brock Purdy was the third QB to start in back-to-back conference championship games in his first two NFL seasons.

The other two:

Ben Roethlisberger: 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in his two-year run, which ended with a Super Bowl win over the Seahawks. He started 17 more playoff games in his career after this run.
Mark Sanchez: He never started another playoff game. Sanchez played all six of those playoff games on the road (4-2 SU and ATS) but never made the Super Bowl.

• Purdy is 12-2 SU and 8-6 ATS at home compared to 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS on the road or at a neutral site in his career.

• Handling pressure: Purdy is averaging 10.4 yards per attempt vs. blitz this season, which is the best mark in the NFL.

• Time zones: Purdy is 16-2 SU and 10-8 ATS when playing in Pacific time, and he's 5-3 SU and ATS in all other time zones. When playing in PST on the road, Purdy is 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS.

• Facing elite opposition: Against teams that are above .500, Purdy is 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS. Against teams below .500, Purdy is 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS

• Against the spread: Purdy is 15-11 ATS in his career. He's 7-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 or fewer points or as an underdog. He's 8-10 ATS as a favorite or four or more points.

Purdy is 11-15 ATS in his career against the first-half spread and 1-4 in the playoffs. Against the second-half spread, Purdy is 17-9 and 3-2 in the playoffs.

• Neutral sites: This is Purdy’s first career neutral site game in the NFL. In college at Iowa State he played in three, two bowl games and Big 12 title game: 1-2 SU/ATS

• In games that take place after the start of October, Purdy was 25-12 SU at Iowa State and is 18-5 SU with the 49ers.

• The most-profitable 49ers QBs ATS over the last 20 years: Jimmy Garoppolo 35-25-1, Shaun Hill 12-4 and Purdy 15-11 ATS.

• In the regular season

Overall: 17-4 SU & 13-8 ATS | At home: 8-2 SU & 6-4 | On the road: 9-2 SU & 7-4 ATS

Purdy has never been an underdog in 21 regular-season starts. He's 17-4 SU and 13-8 ATS in the regular season.

• In the playoffs

Overall: 4-1 SU & 2-3 ATS | At home: 4-0 SU & 2-2 ATS | On the road: 0-1 SU & ATS

As a favorite: 4-0 SU & 2-2 ATS | As an underdog: 0-1 SU & ATS

Against the cap: Purdy takes up just 0.37% of the 49ers' salary cap. Since the salary cap began in 1994, six quarterbacks have won the Super Bowl on their rookie contract: Tom Brady in 2001, Roethlisberger in '05, Eli Manning in '07, Russell Wilson in '13 and Mahomes in '19.

• Handling the competition: Purdy has beaten every NFC playoff team in either the regular season or playoffs. He's the first quarterback to do so since Joe Montana in 1984

• Super Bowl experience: Does it matter? Quarterbacks who have played in at least one Super Bowl going up against one playing in his first are 20-15 SU and 17-18 ATS. This will be the 22nd time in Super Bowl history when a quarterback has played two or more Super Bowls than the opposing QB. The more experienced quarterback is 13-8 SU.

• Purdy will become just the eighth QB in NFL history to start a Super Bowl within the first two seasons of his career. Dan Marino, Colin Kaepernick and Joe Burrow lost, while Kurt Warner, Brady, Roethlisberger and Wilson won.

Kyle Shanahan

Regular season: Shanahan is 64-51 SU and 59-55-1 in the regular season as a head coach. He's 31-23 SU and 24-29-1 ATS at home compared to 33-28 SU and 35-26 on the road or a neutral site.

As a favorite, Shanahan is 46-25 SU and 33-37-1. He's 18-26 SU and 26-18 ATS as an underdog

Playoffs: Shanahan is 8-3 straight-up and 7-4 ATS in the playoffs. He's 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS at home compared to 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS on the road or a neutral site.

As a favorite in the playoffs, Shanahan is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS at home and 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS as an underdog. This year has brought the first time that Shanahan's 49ers have failed to cover in back-to-back games.

• Shanahan is 19-27-1 ATS vs. teams that allow 24 or more points per game and 45-27 ATS against teams that allow less than 24 points per game. The Chiefs are allowing 16.8 points per game this season.

• Shanahan has faced 17 teams in November or later that are allowing less than 20 points per game. He's 11-6 SU, while Purdy is 5-2 SU in those games. The Chiefs 16.8 points allowed per game is the third lowest of those 17 teams

• The 49ers are 0-39 under Shanahan when trailing by eight or more points in the fourth quarter.

• Shanahan is 32-11 SU and 28-14-1 ATS when San Francisco plays in the Pacific Time Zone after playing in the PST in their previous game, as well. Shanahan has won 17 consecutive games SU when playing for a second — or more — straight time, with his last loss comign back in December 2021. When Shanahan’s opponents’ previous time zone is EST, he's 15-3 SU.

• The 49ers are 13-34 SU and 12-35 ATS when trailing at the half under Shanahan. They're 2-33 SU when trailing by more than 10 points in the second half. The only two wins came in the NFC Championship Game vs. Lions and in Week 18 of the 2021 season, when they trailed Rams 17-3 and won 27-24 in OT.

Here are similar Shanahan trends when trailing for the 49ers:

• 5-35 and 2-38 ATS when trailing by three or more points entering the fourth quarter.
• 8-36 SU and 5-39 ATS when trailing entering the fourth quarter, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS this season.
• 3-29 SU and ATS when trailing by 14 or more points at any point in the game.

• Shanahan is 24-19-1 ATS against the NFC West and 42-40 against all other opponents.

• Shanahan is 6-0 SU as a favorite in the playoffs. He's the only coach 5-0 SU or better as a favorite in the playoffs since 2000. With either Garoppolo or Purdy starting, he's 24-4 SU as a favorite against teams over .500, winning by an average of 11.1 points per game

• On a neutral field, Shanahan is 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS.

• The 49ers are 11-2 SU and 10-3 coming off an SU win but ATS loss under Shanahan.


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Super Bowl History


Favorites & Underdogs

Super Bowl favorites are 36-21 SU and 27-28-2 ATS in the Super Bowl.

Super Bowl underdogs are 9-7 SU in the last 16 Super Bowls, including 11-5 ATS.

The Super Bowl Total

The over is 27-28-1 in the Super Bowl. (There was no total in Super Bowl 1.)

• The under had cashed in four straight Super Bowls before last year's 38-35 shootout.
• The under is 11-9 in the last 20 Super Bowls. The over has received public support in 16 of those 20 games, in which the over is 7-9.
• The Super Bowl total has only closed with the majority of the tickets on the under three times in the Bet Labs database: 2004, '12 and '14. The under is 1-2 in those games.
• Overall, the public is just 8-11 betting Super Bowl totals. (It landed exactly 50%/50% in 2005.)

Here are the lowest Super Bowl totals over the last 15 seasons:

Super Bowl 50: 43 (under)
Super Bowl 45: 44.5 (over)
Super Bowl 49: 47 (over)
Super Bowl 48: 47 (over)
Super Bowl 58: 47.5
Super Bowl 47: 47.5 (over)

Super Bowl Winners ATS

Super Bowl winners are 48-7-2 ATS (87%).

The Rams won the Super Bowl but failed to cover the spread in 2022, which was the first time that happened since the 2009 Super Bowl. Super Bowl winners with a spread of six or fewer points are 29-1 ATS. Super Bowl winners with a spread of four or fewer are 22-0 ATS, with 11 favorites and 11 'dogs winning straight-up.

The NFC Struggles

The NFC has not won three straight Super Bowls since 2010-12. Prior to that, it was 1985-97, when the NFC won 13 straight Super Bowls. The NFC had a two-game win streak before the Chiefs beat the Eagles last year.

The NFC has struggled in Super Bowls as favorites, going 1-7-2 ATS in their last 10 games when laying points dating back to 1996.

Super Bowl Tidbits

  • Public sides are 10-10 SU and ATS in the Super Bowl since 2004. For the first time since 2005-07, the public side has lost ATS three straight Super Bowls (2021-23). The public side last lost three straight between 2005-07 with the Patriots, Seahawks and Bears.
  • The team with a higher percentage of the handle on the spread has lost three straight Super Bowls ATS.
  • This is poised to be the 16th straight Super Bowl with the favorite laying less than seven points, extending the longest string in Super Bowl history.
  • The team wearing their white jerseys has won 16 of the last 19 Super Bowls.
  • A safety hasn’t occurred in nine straight Super Bowls, but one did in three straight before that.
  • The most common final margin in Super Bowl history is three points, which has happened eight times. The next closest is four points (six times).

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Betting Markets


Sunday, Feb 11
6:30pm ET
CBS


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Indoor Super Bowl


This will be the 21st indoor Super Bowl. Overall, indoor Super Bowls are just 11-9 to the under.

The average over/under in those first 20 games is 47.6, with the average combined points scored between the two teams coming in at 47.8. With an over/under around 47.5, this year's total is spot on.

Just looking over the last 20 years of Super Bowls for a bit of a different sample size, the total is still 5-5 to either side. The average total in those games is 49.4, with 47.7 points scored per game.

Indoor playoff games over the last 20 years are 34-18 (65.4%) to the over. Outdoor playoff games are 102-78-5 (56.7%) to the under.

For updated weather reports check out the Action Network NFL Weather page.


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National Anthem


Full National Anthem info since 2007: Year-by-year times, over/unders and results:

Six of the last seven anthems have been under 2:05. The exception had two singers on the mic.

Reba McEntire's over/under of 1:30 seconds is the lowest since we've been tracking since 2007.


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Coin Toss


Full coin toss info in 57-year Super Bowl history: Year-by-year heads/tails, team who won the toss and did they end up winning the game:


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Gatorade Bath


Full Gatorade info since 2001: Year-by-year selections, current odds and most choices in total:


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Referee: Bill Vinovich


This will be Vinovich’s third Super Bowl. He's been in charge previously of the Chiefs' win over the 49ers in Super Bowl 54 and the Patriots' win over the Seahawks in Super Bowl 49.

Over the last decade, Vinovich-refereed games are 97-66-1 (60%) to the under, making a $100 bettor $2,468, for a 15.1% return on investment. That's the best in the NFL of any referee by almost $1,000. The under is 73-43 (63%) in Vinovich's games since 2017.

Underdogs are 57-41-2 ATS (58%) in Vinovich's games since 2018, making him the fourth-most profitable referee for 'dogs in that span.Underdogs are just 7-8-1 ATS in Vinovich's games this season, though.

Vinovich hasn't refereed a Chiefs game this season. Here are his last three:

Oct. 2, 2022: Chiefs +2 at Buccaneers; 41-31 win
Jan. 30, 2022 (AFC Championship Game): Chiefs -7 vs. Bengals; 27-24 loss
Nov. 14, 2021: Chiefs -3 at Raiders; 41-14 win

Vinovich has officiated two 49ers games in the last calendar year:

Dec. 25, 2023: 49ers -6.5 at Ravens; 33-19 loss
Jan. 22, 2023 (NFC Divisional Round): 49ers -3.5 vs. Cowboys; 19-12 win


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Betting Systems


System: The team with the better SU win percentage entering the Super Bowl is an atrocious 1-15 ATS over the last 20 years. The only cover was Patriots against the Falcons in Super Bowl 51.

Matches: 49ers

$$$: Fade Team w/ Better Win Pct in Super Bowl
the week number or round is Super Bowl
the team's win percent differential is between -100 and -0.1
$-1,391
WON
1-15-0
RECORD
6%
WIN%

System: When two teams are on extended rest, the under has been a historically profitable play in the regular season and the playoffs.

Matches: Under

$$$: Under with both teams extended rest
the game was played during the 2023-24 or 2022-23 or 2021-22 or 2020-21 or 2019-20 or 2018-19 season
the game is played during the Postseason or Regular season
betting on the Under
the home team has had between 8 and 100 days off
the Visitor team has had between 8 and 100 days off
$4,494
WON
108-54-1
RECORD
67%
WIN%

System: Chiefs opened as 2.5-point underdogs against the 49ers. If they close at +2 or less, they'd fit a very profitable long-term system for underdogs.

Matches: Chiefs

$$$: Underdog gets smaller in playoffs
the spread change from open to close is between -100 and -0.5
the team is the Dog
the game is played during the Postseason season
$2,314
WON
45-20-2
RECORD
69%
WIN%

System: In his NFL career, Patrick Mahomes is 26-5 SU against a defense allowing fewer than 20 points per game. When that game is on the road/neutral, he's 16-1 SU. His one loss was against the Titans in 2019. Mahomes has won 14 straight starts in this spot since then. Over the last 20 years, Mahomes is the fifth-most profitable on ML in this spot behind Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Tom Brady and Brett Favre.

Matches: Chiefs

$$$: Mahomes vs. Good Defense, Road/Neutral
the team is the Visitor or Neutral team
the opposing team's average points allowed is between 0 and 19.9
the QB is P MAHOMES
the game is played during the Postseason or Regular season
$1,162
WON
16-1-0
RECORD
94%
WIN%

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Playoff Stat Leaders


Tap carrot below to expand. For more information on NFL leader odds, check out our NFL futures page with updated markets (odds below are from preseason). All players eliminated behind 1st place have been removed.
NFL Final Stat Matrix
Leader
2nd In Category
3rd In Category
Pass YdsJared Goff (+750): LeaderPatrick Mahomes (+650): -119Brock Purdy (+475): -318
Rush YdsIsiah Pacheco (+1100): LeaderChristian McCaffrey (+175): -66N/A
Rec. YdsAmon-Ra St. Brown (+650): LeaderTravis Kelce (+1600): -12Rashee Rice (+750): -51
Rush TDChristian McCaffrey (+350): LeaderIsiah Pacheco (+1100): -1Elijah Mitchell (+6000): -3
Rec. TDTravis Kelce (+2000): Co-LeaderJake Ferguson (+2000): Co-LeaderTied (N/A): -2
SacksAidan Hutchinson (+1500): LeaderGeorge Karlaftis (+5000): -0.5Nick Bosa (+150): -1
Updated as of Feb. 1st

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Player Stats


Super Bowl MVP

Eleven of the last 14 Super Bowl MVPs have been under 10-1 odds (Edelman, Von Miller, Malcolm Smith). Mahomes won at +130 last year.

Here's a positional breakdown of Super Bowl MVPs: 32 quarterbacks, eight wide receivers, seven running backs and 11 from every other position.

• A WR won MVP two years ago (Cooper Kupp) and in 2019 (Julian Edelman), but it’s been ages since a RB has won. You have to go back to 1998 (Terrell Davis) and '94 (Emmitt Smith).

Let's first take a look at each Super Bowl MVP and their odds over the past 20 years:

Here are defensive players to win Super Bowl MVP since 2000:

• 2015 Von Miller (Broncos): 2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles. Neither QB (Peyton Manning or Cam Newton) threw a touchdown in the Super Bowl.

• 2013 Malcolm Smith (Seahawks): pick-six, 10 tackles, fumble recovery. Russell Wilson threw for 206 passing yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions.

• 2002 Dexter Jackson (Buccaneers) two interceptions. Brad Johnson threw for 215 passing yards with two passing touchdowns and an interception.

• 2000 Ray Lewis (Ravens): four pass deflections and five tackles; Ravens defense allowed seven points. Trent Dilfer threw for 153 passing yards with a touchdown, while Jamal Lewis had 27 carries for 102 rushing yards and a touchdown.

With the Chiefs in the Super Bowl for the 4th time with Mahomes and Kelce. Let's see their Super Bowl MVP prices:

Chiefs Historical SB Odds (2024, 2023, 2021, 2020)
Patrick Mahomes (+130, +125, -105, +105)
Travis Kelce (+1400, +1100, +1100, +2000)

Patrick Mahomes is the +130 favorite to win Super Bowl MVP while his team is listed as the underdog in the game.

Lowest Odds to Win SB MVP — Team Listed as Underdog
2024 Patrick Mahomes, KC — +130*
2023 Patrick Mahomes, KC — +130 (Won)*
2021 Tom Brady, NE — +190 (Won)
*Super Bowl MVP Favorite

Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes

• Mahomes four games in Allegiant Stadium: 114-for-155 for 1,256 yards, 10 touchdowns and one interception.

• Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception in his last six playoff games, during which he has thrown 11 touchdown passes. Mahomes had three touchdown passes and no interceptions in last year's win over the Eagles. In Mahomes' two previous Super Bowls, he threw four interceptions, two in each game.

• Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception since Christmas, which is five games. In games after one that he threw an interception, Mahomes is 30-19-1. After games he didn't throw an INT, he's 26-29-2.

• Here's how Mahomes has performed in two regular-season games against the 49ers:

2018: 24-for-38, 314 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions, sacked twice
2022: 25-for-34, 423 yards, three touchdowns and one interception, sacked once

In the February 2020 Super Bowl matchup, Mahomes was 26-for-42 with 286 yards, two touchdown and two interceptions, as well as nine carries for 29 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown and one fumble. He was sacked four times.

So, in three games against the 49ers, Mahomes has thrown eight touchdowns and three interceptions, fumbled once, been sacked seven times and ran 14 times for 36 yards and a touchdown while averaging 341 passing yards.

Here are my remaining tidbits on Mahomes:

• Mahomes has had at least 29 rushing yards in all three Super Bowl appearances.
• Mahomes' prop for his longest completion is 33.5. Against Buffalo and Baltimore, his longest completion was 32 yards. Mahomes has gone under 33.5 longest completion in three straight starts just once since start of 2021 season.

Travis Kelce

• Kelce has 16 career receptions for 227 yards and a touchdown in three career games against the 49ers. He caught six balls for 43 yards and that touchdown in the February 2020 Super Bowl matchup.

In total, Kelce is averaging 5.5 receptions and 67.5 yards per game against the 49ers in his career, but those numbers go up to eight receptions and 85 yards with a touchdown in two matchups against the Niners with Mahomes as his quarterback.

In 21 career playoff games, Kelce has 156 catches for 1,810 yards and 19 touchdowns. The 156 receptions are the most ever, while he's second to Jerry Rice in receiving yards (2,245) and receiving touchdowns (22).

• Kelce has at least five receptions in 13 straight playoff games. He's tied Julian Edelman for the record of 13.

• Kelce has at least 50 receiving yards in 12 straight playoff games. Edelman holds that record at 13.

• Kelce has a receiving touchdown in 14 of his 21 career playoff games. With Mahomes, Kelce has scored in four of their five playoff games that were played outside of Kansas City.

• Kelce has the most games with at least 10 receptions in NFL history with six. Second is Rice, Edelman and Hines Ward with only three.

• Kelce has caught three touchdowns in five consecutive postseasons. No other player in NFL history has caught three TDs in any five postseasons.

• Kelce has scored a TD or logged at least 100 receiving yards in all three of his Super Bowl appearances.

• Kelce is coming off an 11-target, 11-reception game in the AFC Championship Game against the Ravens. It was the fourth time he has caught all of his targets in the playoffs, but he's never done it in consecutive games.

49ers

Brock Purdy

Purdy is 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS playing indoors compared to 19-4 SU and 14-9 ATS outdoors. In college, he was 1-2 SU and ATS indoors.

• The 49ers haven’t needed a QB to lead the way in the playoffs. They have only one game where a QB has thrown for at least 300 passing yards over their last 14 playoff games, during which they're 10-4. Seven of those 14 games saw the starting QB throw for fewer than 200 yards, and they're 5-2 SU in those.
• Purdy's passing prop is 245.5, which is the 9th-highest mark for a QB facing the Chiefs this season. 11 QBs have had a passing prop of 220+ vs. Chiefs, they are 8-3 to the under — going under by 31 yards/game.

Deebo Samuel

• When Samuel starts and finishes a game, the 49ers are 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS.
• When Samuel misses a game or starts it but doesn't finish it, the 49ers are 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS, with that lone win coming against the Packers in the Divisional Round. They're averaging 18 points per game in those five games.
• Samuel has gone under 64 rushing + receiving yards in all six games vs. AFC teams with Purdy as the 49ers' starting QB. He's scored a TD in just one of those games.
• When Samuel logs at least one target, the 49ers are 45-13 SU compared to 9-10 SU when he doesn't.
• When Samuel and Christian McCaffrey both start, the 49ers are 22-3 SU and 16-9 ATS.

Christian McCaffrey

• In games that McCaffrey has started since being acquired last season, the 49ers are 26-5 SU and 19-12 ATS. McCaffrey has scored 38 touchdowns in those 31 games.
• McCaffrey is listed between 125.5 and 133.5 for his rushing + receiving yards prop. With Purdy as his QB, he has gone over that first number in 16 of 30 games but the second number just 12 times.
• McCaffrey has scored a TD in 25 of 30 games with Purdy as the starting QB.
• McCaffrey's rushing attempts prop is set at 19.5. He has gone over that in six of the 30 games he's played with Purdy. McCaffrey had 20 carries against the Lions in NFC Championship Game.

Brandon Aiyuk

• At a receiving yards line of 76.5, Aiyuk is over that in only seven of 18 games, including 33% of his last 30 total games.
• Aiyuk has gone over 5.5 receptions in five of his 18 games this season. When Aiyuk gets at least five targets, he has gone over 5.5 receptions in still just five of 15 games.


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TD Zone


Below is a Anytime TD Super Bowl sheet — which encompasses every TD and odds for each player for the last seven Super Bowls.


Now for the "First TD data." Below is an updated tracking sheet for every player to score the first TD of the game this season for the two remaining teams, including players and odds for "team first TD" for each and every week in 2023.


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Super Bowl Futures


Ten of the last 11 Super Bowl champions have been listed at +1200 or shorter to win it all in the preseason now with one of these teams winning.

12-1 or shorter to win 2023-24 Super Bowl in Preseason

+600 – Chiefs
+700 – Eagles
+800 – Bills
+900 – Bengals
+1000 – 49ers

Since 2005, the favorite to win the Super Bowl entering the playoffs have won it all three times (Chiefs in 2023, Patriots in 2016 and the Seahawks in 2013). This year's 49ers can join those teams.

Only one AFC team has made the Super Bowl with preseason conference odds above +1000 since Tom Brady and the Patriots in 2001 (+2000), and that was the 2021 Bengals at +8000.

10-1 or shorter to win 2023-24 AFC Championship

+300 – Chiefs
+500 – Bills
+550 – Bengals
+900 – Jets
+900 – Ravens


49ers Super Bowl Odds


49ers: -120 (Highest odds: 10-1, WK1 | Enter WK1: +1000)

Chiefs Super Bowl Odds


Chiefs: +100 (Highest odds: 9-1, Current | Enter WK1: +600)


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Trivia


For this weeks trivia question, we are looking for a few different answers. Click the button below to reveal the right answer

Trivia Question: How well do you know Super Bowl betting history? We've had five double-digit underdogs win the Super Bowl in its history — can you name them?

❌ Click This Button For Trivia Answer ✅

+18: Jets over IND (1968-69), +14: Patriots over Rams (2001-02), +12.5: Giants over NE (2007-08), +12: Chiefs over MIN (1969-70), +11.5: Broncos over GB (1997-98).


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