Dolphins vs. Titans Odds | Monday Night Football Prediction
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Dolphins vs. Titans Odds | Monday Night Football Prediction
| Dolphins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | -900 |
| Titans Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 45 -110o / -110u | +600 |
NFL odds have Miami laying 13.5 points on Monday Night Football against Tennessee. My Dolphins vs. Titans prediction is fading Tennessee, but not on the spread.
Given the injury situation for the Titans' defense — Jeffery Simmons (knee) and Kristian Fulton (hamstring) are both out — and the issues they've had in the defensive backfield, it's hard to find a matchup more friendly than this for the Dolphins offense. On the other side, Will Levis has flashed his potential with highlight-reel throws and scrambling ability, but he's also been quite volatile and his play-to-play numbers are mediocre.
Let's dive into my Monday Night Football betting preview and pick for tonight.
Dolphins vs. Titans Prediction
Miami doesn't have a rest advantage in terms of days, but it has the benefit of not playing high-leverage fourth-quarter minutes over the last two weeks. The Titans, on the other hand, had to go to overtime in a grueling loss to the Colts.
The Titans' injury report leaves real concerns about how their defensive front will hold up. Their best run stopper and defensive lineman, Jeffery Simmons, has already been ruled out. Fellow DL Teair Tart is also listed as questionable and was a limited participant at practice on Friday. Corner Kristian Fulton will not play — not great news considering this secondary struggled against significantly worse pass offenses than Miami's, like those of Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, in the last six weeks.
Since Week 7, the Titans rank 22nd in dropback success rate allowed and 28th in EPA per dropback allowed despite facing an uninspiring group of signal-callers in Desmond Ridder, Kenny Pickett, Baker Mayfield, Gardner Minshew and Bryce Young aside from Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence was the only quarterback to write home about in the group, and he led the Jaguars to 34 points and 389 total yards on 5.6 yards per play. Compare this to the Miami defense, which has been steadily trending upward throughout the season.
The Dolphins had their issues early in the season under new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio, but they've made steady improvements. Since Week 7, teams have been able to run on Miami but not exploit them through the air. Miami is top five in dropback success rate and EPA per play.
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Dolphins vs. Titans Picks at FanDuel
The only way to really throw off the Dolphins is to generate quick pressure in order to move Tagovailoa off his spot and throw the offense off rhythm.
The Titans are ninth in pass rush win rate, but it's hard to put too much stock in that ranking, considering Simmons' absence tonight. He's elite at generating pressure for a defensive tackle. The Titans defense is at the mercy of how much Miami wants to push its first-string offense.
The Titans ran all over the Colts early in the game last week but then had six consecutive drives without a first down. Will Levis, who's 27th in success rate (out of 30 quarterbacks with at least 200 plays), will need to be precise and methodical to move the ball against Miami.
You're not going to hit a ton of explosives against Miami's defense, and explosives have been the saving grace for Levis early on his career.
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Dolphins vs. Titans Prediction & Pick
If you look at the Dolphins' entire statistical profile, they've been a dominant favorite all season long.
They have three losses to Philadelphia, Buffalo and Kansas City — each by at least seven points — but six of their last seven wins since their 70-point eruption against Denver in Week 3 have come by at least 14. The only game that didn't was a 20-13 win against the Raiders that included three Miami turnovers, a missed field goal and a failed goal-line sequence for the offense. The Dolphins still averaged 6.2 yards per play in the game.
The spread is high because of the Dolphins' success in blowouts. Once Miami does jump out to a lead in the first half, it's hard to see the Titans generating consistent offensive success.
The market is still catching up to how impressive the Miami defense is right now — as a result, I'm playing against the Tennessee offense. The Fangio defense will sit deep and force Tennessee to methodically move the ball down the field, something Levis hasn't proven he can do as a pro.
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