Texans vs. Jaguars Picks & Favorite Bets: How Our Experts Are Betting This London Spread
Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Quincy Williams, DeAndre Hopkins
- Scrambling to make last-minute betting picks for Sunday morning's London game between the Jags and Texans? Let our experts help.
- They analyzes how to bet this spread, which is near a pick'em.
Texans vs. Jaguars Odds & Betting Picks
- Odds: Texans -1
- Over/Under: 46.5
- Location: London
- Kickoff: 9:30 a.m. ET
- TV Channel: NFL Network
Odds as of Saturday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
The market has moved against the Houston Texans, who opened at -3 but are down to 1-point favorites for Sunday’s divisional clash with the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Gardner Minshew and Co. have drawn lopsided action with a 62% of the money wagered on only 43% of the tickets, but should you back or fade the Jags?
Three of our experts reveal how they’re betting this spread.
Sean Koerner: Jaguars +1
I created a Bet Labs system that looks at teams underperforming their Pythagorean win expectations and are seeing fewer than half of the betting tickets, but more than half of the money wagered. That system is 38-26 (59.4%) over the past five seasons.
The Jaguars are a fit for the system this week, and are also showing value in my Pass/Run Funnel Model.
Another key angle here is that while the game is on a neutral field, the Jaguars are the most experienced team when it comes to playing games in London as they’ve done it every season since the NFL started its series. They’re much more experienced in this environment, giving them a slight home-field edge.
This is also another chance for Gardner Minshew to make his case to keep his starting QB job when Nick Foles is healthy enough to return.
Give me the Jaguars. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Matthew Freedman: Texans -1
I’m gonna disagree with Sean here.
The Texans barely escaped with a 13-12 victory over the Jaguars in Week 2, and that game was at home. Now they’re on the road and without All-Pro defensive end J.J. Watt (pectoral), who suffered a season-ending injury last week.
But I am still on the Texans. I consider the Jags to be a mediocre team, and there seems to be something about the London game that exacerbates the problems lesser teams have. Maybe it’s the logistics of travel and playing in a foreign place.
Since the NFL International Series started in 2007, the London favorites are 18-9 against the spread, good for a 30.7% return on investment. And regular-season favorites on a neutral field are 27-12-2 ATS (33.6% ROI).
But the Texans and Jags are divisional rivals, which impacts the dynamics between the two teams.
How have favorite s done in divisional neutral-field games? 9-1 ATS (73.9% ROI). [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Mike Randle: Jaguars +1
Jacksonville holds a huge advantage over first-time opponents in London. And Houston will be playing its first game at Wembley Stadium, making Jacksonville even more attractive as the underdog.
The Jaguars have a 2-1 record in London. receiving between zero and seven points, including a 44-7 destruction of Baltimore in 2017.
They’ve matched up well against the Texans, covering the spread in four of their last six meetings. That includes a 13-12 loss in Houston, when Leonard Fournette was stopped on a two-point conversation with 36 seconds left.
The Texans have lost Watt and come to London with a decimated secondary. The Jaguars have enjoyed quality quarterback play from Minshew, who has 11 touchdowns and just one interceptions in his seven starts.
Houston has been stout against the run, but Watt’s absence will be a problem against the NFL’s second-leading rusher, Fournette. The Texans have also allowed the most receptions (59) and receiving yards (476) to opposing running backs. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]