Dolphins vs Texans Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 12 Betting Preview

Dolphins vs Texans Pick, Prediction | NFL Week 12 Betting Preview article feature image

Megan Briggs/Getty Images. Pictured: Tua Tagovailoa (left), Jaylen Waddle (right).

Dolphins vs Texans Odds

Sunday, Nov. 27
1 p.m. ET
Dolphins Odds
-118o / -104u
Texans Odds
-118o / -104u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute NFL odds here.

The Dolphins have gone from wildcard hopeful to potential division winner thanks to a four-game win streak coupled with November woes for the Bills. Buffalo is 2-2 in its last four games and has greatly underwhelmed even when victorious.

While the Bills have struggled, the Dolphins offense has a taken a next-level leap. In their last three games, Miami has averaged 35 points. The only question for this offense is whether it can be sustained outdoors in the winter? However, until those situations arise expect them to continue blazing past their opponents.

For the Texans, the complete opposite has taken place. They are coming off their worst offensive performance of the year and have decided to change things up at quarterback. Kyle Allen will be stepping in and, due to his risk-taking style, will either be great or terrible. 

Texans vs. Dolphins Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how the Texans and Dolphins match up statistically:

Texans vs. Dolphins DVOA Breakdown
Overall DVOA3123
Pass DVOA3029
Rush DVOA299
Overall DVOA229
Pass DVOA125
Rush DVOA1531
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You can't talk about the Miami offense without acknowledging the dynamic duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Of receivers with at least 50 targets, Waddle and Hill rank first and second, respectively, in yards per target.  Their ability to create separation and yards after the catch has helped change the trajectory of Tua Tagovailoa’s career.

Over the offseason, the question was whether Tagovailoa would be replaced at some point — now, he's in the MVP discussion.

Head coach Mike McDaniel has constructed a system to utilize his speedy receivers and quarterback's talents. This has led to Tagovailoa being either the best or second best in most efficiency metrics (QBR, EPA, yards per attempt … you name it). 

What has taken this offense to another level though has been the addition of Jeff Wilson. He came via trade from the 49ers so system transition was not a problem and it’s shown. In his time with Miami, Wilson has averaged 6.5 yards per carry. He gives the Dolphins an added dimension and a way to grind clock late.

Though the offense has been close to unstoppable, the Dolphins defense has had its troubles. They rank 25th in yards per drive allowed and 24th in points per drive allowed. There is hope moving forward thanks to the addition of Bradley Chubb.

On the year, Miami ranks 25th in pressure rate, per Pro Football Reference. However, against one of the best offensive lines (Cleveland), it created pressure on 45% of passes. With their offense, as long as the Dolphins can get pressure they will be in a good position come playoff time.

Bet Houston vs. Miami at FanDuel
Texans +14 | Dolphins -14

As for the Texans, their offense could be a completely different beast with the quarterback change. They are transitioning from Davis Mills, who is tied for the third lowest turnover-worthy play percentage (per PFF) to Kyle Allen, who had the eighth highest turnover-worthy play percentage the last time he was a full-time starter. Taking these chances will give Houston some more offensive potential, but could also give opposing defenses more opportunities.

They will still have Dameon Pierce to give the offense some stability though. Pierce is the No. 8 running back (per PFF) and has carried this offense. Houston will need Pierce to grind the clock and limit Miami's possessions if it hopes to pull an upset.

Defensively, the problem for Houston has been stopping the run. Against the pass (since their bye), the Texans have held opponents under 250 yards passing. However, they have allowed each team to gain over 140 yards rushing. Against Miami’s passing attack, that could be an advantage. However, if they continue allowing 5.1 yards per carry opposing teams would be foolish not to run.

Betting Picks

The Dolphins have been an offense wrecking ball recently, but a two-touchdown spread is a lot to cover. On the year, they have only covered that amount once, and that includes recent games against Pittsburgh, Detroit and Chicago. 

The over looks to be the way to go in this one — it has hit in each of the Dolphins' last three games. The addition of Wilson has given Miami a way to create offense on the ground. When throwing, no team has had an answer this season. They are also coming off a bye so McDaniel had an extra week to prepare.

For Houston, starting Allen simply increases its offensive variance. If that plays out to the positive, the Texans will score more and force Miami to play aggressively offensively. If that plays out to the negative, they will be giving more opportunities to Miami and creating opportunities for some garbage time scoring.

Either scenario plays to the over. Trust Miami to keep producing points and Houston to score in garbage time to cover the over.

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