The Favorites Pick ’Em Contest: NFL Week 7 Tiebreaker Strategy
Photo by Cooper Neill/Getty Images. Pictured: Christian McCaffrey.
With the launch of The Favorites' NFL pick 'em contest, which is free to play, we decided on tiebreaker props to settle the winners of the $3,000 in weekly prizes.
We pivoted in Week 6 to a tiebreaker question with a much wider range of outcomes (total rushing yards on Monday Night Football), and the result was two entrants chopping the first- and second-place payouts. No one else came closer than four yards to the exact answer, so this tiebreaker was certainly harder for people to nail down.
We're repeating the same tiebreaker for Week 7, with the wrinkle for this Monday Night Football game being that Christian McCaffrey is questionable for 49ers vs. Vikings. His status will have a considerable impact on the rushing total, and will likely lead to an even wider range of answers.
Important note: You can sign up for this contest at any point during the season.
Week 7 Tiebreaker: Total Rushing Yards — 49ers vs. Vikings Monday Night Football
While it didn't work out last week, we'll be using the same kind of analysis to break this down. Keep in mind the 49ers' offensive numbers all came in games with McCaffrey, so we'll need to further adjust down and produce a second range for scenarios in which he doesn't play.
San Francisco is averaging 148.3 rushing yards per game this season, the third-best mark in the league. That works out to 33% above the league-average rate (which has dipped to about 11 since last week). Multiplying that by the Vikings' defensive rushing yards allowed, which is about 1% higher than average, we arrive at a projection of 150 rushing yards for the 49ers.
For the Vikings, they've rushed for 75 yards per game and are facing a 49ers team that's allowed just 80. Those are both well below average, and repeating the same process gives us a rushing projection of 54 yards for the Vikings.
Much of that is due to the typical game script faced by both teams, with the 49ers (5-1) spending a lot more time chewing clock than the Vikings (2-4). However, we can project that to remain the case in Week 7, with San Francisco favored by roughly a touchdown.
Minnesota ranks fourth in pass rate over expectation (PROE) this year while the 49ers are 29th, so the bulk of the rushing should be on San Francisco's side regardless of game script.
My Recommendation: Around 200 Yards (with McCaffrey active)
As we saw last week, guesses on this question were all over the place. That means we can try to get as close as possible without worrying too much about being unique.
Since the above analysis was based on games McCaffrey was active in, the 204 total yardage projection fits only if he plays. Anywhere in that general region would be a logical guess.
Given both teams' respective PROE numbers, there's some correlation between a higher guess and the 49ers covering the spread, and vise versa. A 49ers win of seven or more leads to more overall rushing than a close game, or one the Vikings win, since Minnesota is pass happy in all game scripts.
Therefore, if this is one of your five selections in the spread contest, I'd adjust up or down by 20-30 yards based on which team you're going with.
If McCaffrey is ruled out, the projection gets even harder. We can edit our tiebreaker guesses up until the game kicks off, which I would certainly take advantage of this week.
San Francisco is averaging 33 rush attempts per game, with a bit over half (18) by McCaffrey. His yards per attempt is a hair over 5.0. All non-McCaffrey rushes for the 49ers have worked out to about a yard lower on average, which would mean our base projection should be about 18 lower.
However, it's reasonable to think the 49ers run less rushing plays without their star back, so I'd further adjust down by another 10 or so yards.
Thus, with McCaffrey out, I'd go with a guess somewhere in the 170s.
How would you rate this article?
Follow Us On Social
