Best Week 13 NFL Prop Bets & Picks: Carson Wentz, Peyton Barber & More
James Lang-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carson Wentz.
- Mike Randle identifies five of the top NFL prop bets for Sunday's main Week 13 slate.
- Find his picks for the over/unders on Carson Wentz's rushing yards, Peyton Barber's rushing yards and more below.
NFL player prop bets offer tremendous value every week. They receive less action and money than the traditional bets, so savvy bettors can gain an edge by reacting to news quicker than the books.
The betting lines for prop bets are often less efficient than NFL sides and totals, opening up attractive opportunities.
One of the best resources to help determine which prop bets to wager on is our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
We leverage the listed prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
- Buccaneers at Jaguars: 1 p.m. ET
- Titans at Colts: 1 pm ET
- Browns at Steelers: 1 p.m. ET
- Eagles at Dolphins: 1:00 pm ET
- Packers at Giants 1:00 p.m. ET
Week 13 NFL Prop Bets & Picks
Here are four props with a Bet Quality of 10 for Sunday’s main slate, with one 9-rated selection. This season, props with a grade of 9 or higher are 375-266-15 (57% win rate).
Buccaneers RB Peyton Barber
- The Opponent: Jaguars (1:00 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Over 22.5 Rushing Yards (-118)
- Bet Quality: 10/10
The Jaguars defense has developed into a run funnel, allowing the fourth-most rushing yards and third-most touchdowns to opposing running backs. Jacksonville has allowed over 200 rushing yards in their last three games.
The concern for this prop would be the distribution of touches between Barber and teammate Ronald Jones. With an over/under of 47 points, I project either a high-scoring game or negative game script for Tampa Bay. Either of those scenarios would enhance Barber’s opportunities.
Barber is still an elusive running back as illustrated by his 27.8% juke rate (13th among all running back) on PlayerProfiler. It won’t take much for Barber to eclipse this number against the generous Jaguars’ run defense.
We project Barber at 29.9 rushing yards which are 6.1 yards above his implied total.
I would bet this 10-rated prop up to -140.
Colts WR Zach Pascal
- The Opponent: Titans (1:00 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Over 2.5 Receptions (-106)
- Bet Quality: 10/10
No T.Y. Hilton means “wheels up” for Zach Pascal.
With Hilton out of the lineup this season, Pascal has more than doubled his targets and receptions, while averaging 14.1 more receiving yards per game.
With injuries to Hilton, Marlon Mack, and Eric Ebron, Pascal remains as the most accomplished active receiver this week. Tennessee’s defense is a clear pass funnel as the Titans rank fifth-best in run defense DVOA per Football Outsiders.
We project Pascal at 3.0 receptions which are 20% above his implied total of 2.5 receptions.
I would bet this 10-rated prop down to -125.
Steelers QB Devlin Hodges
- The Opponent: Browns (1:00 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Over 0.5 Passing Touchdowns (-235)
- Bet Quality: 10/10
I project Devlin Hodges at home to be able to replicate what Mason Rudolph did (passing wise) at Cleveland just three weeks ago.
While being without lead wideout JuJu Smith-Schuster, Hodges will have a decent group of receiving weapons in a game that projects negative game script for Pittsburgh. Wide receivers Diontae Johnson and James Washington saw a total of 11 targets with Hodges, who should also make use of the pass-catching ability of running back Jaylen Samuels.
We project Hodges at 1.2 passing touchdowns which is a full 80% over his implied total. This is the highest percentage difference on the Fantasy Labs Player Props Tool.
I would bet this 10-rated prop up to -250.
Eagles QB Carson Wentz
- The Opponent: Dolphins (1:00 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
- Bet Quality: 10/10
Carson Wentz has increased his rushing yards over the past month. He is averaging 23.5 rushing yards per game over Philadelphia’s past four contests. The main reason is that he faced four strong defenses that forced him to leave the pocket.
There will be no such issue against Miami.
When Wentz faced similar low-efficiency pass rushes, he rarely left the pocket. Earlier in the season against Atlanta and Washington, Wentz ran for five yards and three yards respectively. Against a Dolphins defense that allows the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs and seventh-most to opposing wide receivers, Wentz will be able to sit comfortably in the pocket and go through his progressions.
This season, Miami has allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks. In Week 1, Baltimore quarterback Lamar Jackson only rushed for six yards, simply because he wasn’t pressured all game.
We project Wentz at 12.5 rushing yards which are 24% below his implied total. The -112 juice also makes this a very enticing 10-rated prop play.
I would bet this prop down to -140.
Packers TE Jimmy Graham
- The Opponent: Giants (1:00 p.m. ET)
- The Pick: Under 29.5 receiving yards (-130)
- Bet Quality: 9/10
This is a receiving total that Graham has failed to reach in three of Green Bay’s past four games. His seasonal average of 2.5 receptions indicates he will only have a few chances to exceed this total, which is unlikely for a 33-year-old tight end averaging 11.3 yards per reception (18th among tight ends).
The Giants have been surprisingly stingy against opposing tight ends, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points to the position. Graham has also seen a significant reduction in production when wide receiver Davante Adams has been active. With Adams in the lineup, Graham understandably sees fewer targets, receptions, and only 24.8 receiving yards per game. Against a Giants pass defense that allows the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers, Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers will not need to use Graham much on Sunday.
We project Graham for 24.5 receiving yards which is 17% fewer than his implied total. I would be this 9-rated prop down to -150.