Our Experts’ Favorite Week 14 NFL Betting Picks: Spreads & Over/Unders

Our Experts’ Favorite Week 14 NFL Betting Picks: Spreads & Over/Unders article feature image
Credit:

Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Josh Allen (17)

  • Lay the 12.5 points with the Packers against the Redskins? Back the home favorite in Chiefs-Patriots?
  • You'll find our staff's seven favorite betting picks for Week 14 of the 2019 NFL season below.

Our experts reveal their favorite Week 14 NFL betting picks, featuring spreads and over/unders in the following seven games:

  • Colts at Buccaneers: 1 p.m. ET
  • Ravens at Bills: 1 p.m. ET
  • Redskins at Packers: 1 p.m. ET
  • Panthers at Falcons: 1 p.m. ET
  • Chiefs at Patriots: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Titans at Raiders: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Seahawks at Rams: 8:20 p.m. ET

Let’s dig in!


Odds as of Friday evening and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.


Sean Zerillo: Buccaneers -3 vs. Colts

I have always found it fitting that Jameis Winston gets to wear red and black for the Buccaneers, because whether I bet on or against him I always feel like I’m spinning a roulette wheel.

Even still, I’m buying high on Tampa Bay this week after two consecutive wins, because its defense has really come to hand under Todd Bowles, who is probably more of an overqualified defensive coordinator than he was an under-qualified head coach of the Jets.

Reunited with Bruce Arians, Bowles has a defense that ranks No. 9 overall in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, thanks to a No. 1 ranking in run defense (19th against the pass), which spells trouble for the Colts power run game behind Marlon Mack.

The Colts offense has struggled when Hilton has missed time (1-7 record in his career) and a season-ending injury to Chester Rogers leaves Zach Pascal and Parris Campbell (coming off injury) as the starting receivers, with Ashton Dulin, Chad Williams and Marcus Johnson as the depth.

Campbell and Mack are being thrust back into the lineup for this fading Colts team out of necessity; but this is a nightmare matchup for Mack, and the Colts don’t have the firepower to keep up with the Bucs offense if they fall behind.

If Winston can avoid multiple turnovers, the Bucs should roll.

Go ahead and spin the wheel.

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Sean Zerillo is 195-131-4 (59.8%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

Chris Raybon: Bucs -3 vs. Colts

I’m with Zerillo. This is a tough spot for the Colts without T.Y. Hilton (calf, out) and Eric Ebron (ankle, IR). With a thinned-out pass-catcher corps, QB Jacoby Brissett has thrown only two TDs with three interceptions and 11 sacks over his past four (full) starts.

The Colts are not equipped to exploit Tampa Bay’s weak but improving pass defense, which is ranked 19th overall in DVOA (Football Outsiders’ schedule-adjusted efficiency metric), and despite the return of Mack (hand) they’re unlikely to find success on the ground against Tampa Bay’s No. 1 run defense.

In fact, don’t look now, but Tampa Bay’s defense is up to ninth overall in DVOA — five spots better than Indianapolis, and surely out of line with public perception.

The Colts are down cornerback Kenny Moore (ankle), which is not ideal against Bucs WR Chris Godwin and the already more explosive Bucs offense. Even if Winston gives the Colts a few breaks, I question Tampa’s ability to play with a lead against an elite run defense . And let’s not forget the Colts’ kicker issues. It can’t get any worse than 2019 Adam Vinatieri (knee, out), but newly signed Chase McLaughlin has been bouncing around from team to team and can’t exactly be considered reliable.

The Colts are coming off two tough-to-swallow defeats to division rivals that torpedoed their once promising playoff hopes, while the Bucs have taken care of two similarly free-falling teams over the past two weeks in the Falcons and Jaguars.

It doesn’t happen often, but when a small favorite (1-3 points) on a two-game winning streak faces a team on a two-game losing steak, the market has generally failed to adjust, with favorites rolling to a 20-6-2 (77%) mark against the spread in these spots, per our Bet Labs data.

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Chris Raybon is 178-131-8 (57.6%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

Matthew Freedman: Ravens -5.5 at Bills

I have a lot of respect for the Bills, who have a good home-field advantage, but the Ravens are just too good for me not to back at anything under -6.

The Ravens haven’t lost since the first month of the season, and seemingly every other week they defeat one of the league’s top teams. The Bills, meanwhile, have beaten only one team that currently has a winning record, and that was the Titans — when they were quarterbacked by Marcus Mariota.

The Ravens are No. 1 in the league with a 55% rush success rate (per Sharp Football Stats), and I expect they will run with relative ease against the Bills, who rank 24th overall in Pro Football Focus’ run defense grade.

On offense, the Ravens can sustain and finish drives. On defense, they have averaged just 12.6 points allowed since creating the cornerback trio of Jimmy Smith, Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey. I don’t think the Bills on defense will be able to stop quarterback Lamar Jackson or keep up with him on offense.

nfl-betting-picks-predictions-expert-bets-week-11-2019
Douglas DeFelice-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Lamar Jackson

I’d bet this to -6.

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Freedman is 499-373-21 (57.2%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

Stuckey: Redskins +12.5 at Packers

In what should be a lower-scoring game with a total drifting toward 41 — Washington is dead last in seconds per play in neutral situations while Green Bay also doesn’t play fast — catching 13 with a team that should be able to run the ball against a team that’s a little overvalued in the market is too good to pass up.

Anything over 10.5 is worth a stab in my opinion.

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Stuckey is 296-234-7 (55.8%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

Travis Reed: Panthers-Falcons Over 47

While divisional games usually gravitate toward the under, I can’t pass up the value here. The Falcons are finally healthy with Julio Jones and Austin Hooper returning to action on Sunday. In the previous meeting this season, the Falcons defense held Christian McCaffrey and the Panthers in check in a 29-3 beatdown.

I’m not banking on lightning striking twice here.

On a fast indoor track in Atlanta, I think both teams should be able to move the ball against one another and should be plenty of opportunities for explosive plays. I like the over up to the key total of 49.

[In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at DraftKings]

John Ewing: Patriots -3 vs. Chiefs

The Patriots are 10-2 and have outscored their opponents by 177 points — the best point differential in football. It’s weird to say it, but despite their success this season, Bill Belichick and Co. have actually underperformed based on Pythagorean expectations.

According to Pythagorean expectations, the Pats should have 10.4 wins. That 0.4-win difference between expected and actual wins isn’t much, but it does point to value on Tom Brady and Belichick.

Historically, winning teams that have underperformed their points expectations have been good bets late in the season.

A $100 bettor following this strategy would have returned a profit of $2,952 since 2003.

This is not the only historical data on the side of the Patriots this week. After a dismal performance on Sunday Night Football, gamblers should expect New England to bounce back. Since 2003, Brady has gone 35-13 (73%) ATS after a loss.

Our Bet Labs simulations also like New England in this matchup making the Patriots 3.5-point favorites. All signs point to value on the Pats at the key number of 3.

I like the Patriots at anything -3 or better.

[In New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Indiana or West Virginia? Bet now at DraftKings]

Ewing is 313-285-16 (52.3%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

Mike Randle: Raiders +3 vs. Titans

Always take advantage of knee-jerk overreactions when betting on the NFL.

The Raiders have looked terrible in consecutive losses at the Jets and Chiefs, losing by a combined score of 74-9, while the Titans have won three in a row including last week’s 31-17 upset at Indianapolis.

This is the perfect spot to grab the home underdog at the key number of +3.

Oakland is 5-1 at home, including 4-1 against the spread as a home underdog. The Raiders have been decent against the run, allowing the 13th-fewest rushing yards to opposing running backs. Their defense is significantly better at home, allowing only 20.5 points per game and more than 13 fewer points than on the road.

Jacobs has also been significantly better at home and should receive ample opportunity as the center of the Raiders’ offensive attack if he plays.

Oakland needs this one desperately to stay in the playoff race, and the Raiders have much tougher at home on both sides of the ball. Jon Gruden’s squad averages more points per drive (2.07) and sacks (1.67) per game at home.

The Titans have played well, but this is a prime letdown spot after a huge divisional road win at Indianapolis. I’ll gladly take the three points in game Oakland could very well win outright.

I’d bet this down to Oakland +2.

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Randle is 212-205-5 (50.8%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.

Sean Koerner: Rams +1 vs. Seahawks

This matchup is giving me a bit of deja vu of the Week 12 matchup between the Ravens and Rams. I bit on the Rams +3.5 at home and could tell about two  minutes into the game that it was a loser.

There’s no reason to @ me on Twitter that the Rams are overrated and their offensive line stinks — trust me, I’m well aware of that. But the Rams will win this game if they can give Jared Goff a clean pocket. The Seahawks have the fourth-worst pressure rate at 20.2%, so I think there’s a chance Goff will have the time to operate.

The Rams also have a +3.1 edge in Pythagorean expected record differential over the Seahawks. A lot of that has to do with the Seahawks being 8-1 in one-score games this season, and while you can certainly make a case that Russell Wilson playing at an MVP caliber is the reason for that, that type of record in close games involves quite a bit of luck. Pythagorean wins can really help expose scenarios in which our collective perception of a team can be skewed based solely on to-date results.

I’ll be betting on that here with the Rams +1.

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Koerner is 134-92-2 (59.3%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.