Week 15 Luck-Driven NFL Power Rankings: Chiefs Crack the Top-5 Luckiest Teams
Photo by Jamie Schwaberow/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes.
Our NFL Luck Rankings — a betting-focused version of NFL Power Rankings developed by Action’s Predictive Analytics team — are updated for Week 15.
The only new entry into the top five is the Kansas City Chiefs. This matches their highest luck rank of the year, which came in Week 12 when they failed to cover as 16.5-point favorites against the Los Angeles Rams.
For more on how our luck rankings work, check out this detailed overview of the concept.
Without further ado, let’s dive into the Week 15 NFL Luck Rankings!
Luck-Based NFL Power Rankings
Note: Luck% represents the win probability swing between a team’s expected winning percentage from their on-field performance and their actual winning percentage.
Using NFL Luck Rankings To Redefine Bad Beats
These rankings account for a lot of factors, but they are largely focused on quantifying a team’s on-field performance and comparing it to the actual score of games.
In the classical sense of bad beat, you wouldn’t call losing by 12 and failing to cover by 17.5 points a bad beat.
But what if I told you the way these teams actually played on the field was much closer? In fact, what if I told you based off the start of every play, the Rams should have won the game by seven points and covered!? Now, I bet you feel a whole lot worse!