Week 15 NFL Prop Bets & Betting Picks: How to Bet Todd Gurley’s Props & More

Week 15 NFL Prop Bets & Betting Picks: How to Bet Todd Gurley’s Props & More article feature image

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Todd Gurley

  • What are the best player props to bet on the Sunday Week 15 NFL slate?
  • Mike Randle has analyzed the latest betting odds and compared them to our proprietary projections to find the picks with the biggest edges for Week 15, including Todd Gurley's over/under for receiving yards.
  • Here are the four bets offering the most value.

NFL player prop bets offer tremendous value every week. They receive less action and money than the traditional bets, so savvy bettors can gain an edge by reacting to news quicker than the books.

The betting lines for prop bets are often less efficient than NFL sides and totals, opening up attractive opportunities.

One of the best resources to help determine which prop bets to wager on is our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.

We leverage the listed prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.

Each prop bet receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.

  • Rams at Cowboys: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Seahawks at Panthers: 1 pm ET
  • Broncos at Chiefs: 1 p.m. ET
  • Browns at Cardinals:  4:05 p.m. ET

Week 15 NFL Prop Bets & Betting Picks

Here are three props with a Bet Quality of 8 or better for Sunday’s main slate. This season, props with a grade of 8 or higher are 906-687-21 (56.1% win rate).

Rams RB Todd Gurley

  • The Opponent: Cowboys (4:25 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Under 19.5 Receiving Yards (-100)
  • Bet Quality: 10/10

The Rams have been careful with Gurley’s volume all season, especially in road games. The Los Angeles lead running back has seen very little passing game action away from the Memorial Coliseum.

Gurley has averaged a grand total of seven receiving yards in six road games this season. Head coach Sean McVay gives an average of two fewer targets per game to Gurley in road games. Making things even more complicated, the Rams now have a full complement of weapons with wide receiver Brandin Cooks fully healthy along with fellow wideouts Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Josh Reynolds.  With Cooks active in Rams’ road games, Gurley has only seen an average of 1.8 targets per game.

We project Gurley at 17.2 receiving yards which are 4.1 yards below his implied total.

I would bet this 10-rated prop up to -130.

Seahawks RB Chris Carson

  • The Opponent: Panthers (1:00 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
  • Bet Quality: 9/10

The Seattle lead running back was already near the leaders in touches and will now see an increase with teammate Rashaad Penny now on injured reserve.

Carson ranks third at the position in carries (246) and is Top 20 in targets (43). With Penny injured early in Week 14, Carson saw an 87.7% snap share en route to a respectable 12.2 fantasy points on the road against a tough Rams run defense.

In their seven road games, Carson has averaged 104 total yards, three receptions, 0.5 touchdowns, and 16.1 fantasy points per game.

The Seahawks face the NFL worst defense at containing running backs, allowing 26 fantasy points per game (worst in the NFL).

We project Carson at 19.1 receiving yards which is 18% over his implied total.

I would bet this 9-rated prop down to -140. 

Broncos RB Phillip Lindsay

  • The Opponent: Chiefs (1:00 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Over 11.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
  • Bet Quality: 9/10

Don’t be concerned with the snow forecast in Kansas City, there will be plenty of volume for Denver running back Phillip Lindsay.

Under defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, the Chiefs have limited big plays on the sideline, funneling passes to the middle of the field. Thus, it is no surprise Kansas City has allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing running backs including the most receiving yards (791).

Lindsay has seen 10 targets over the past four games and ranks ninth among all running backs with 10 runs of 15 yards or more. He has the explosiveness to break any play for a big gain.

We project Lindsay at 14.3 receiving yards which are 19% over his implied total.

I would bet this 9-rated prop up to -130.

Rams QB Jared Goff

  • The Opponent: Cowboys (4:25 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+101)
  • Bet Quality: 10/10

The Rams offense has appeared to be hitting its stride at just the right time. Quarterback Jared Goff has thrown for two touchdowns in each of the past two games while averaging 363.5 passing yards.

Dallas ranks 24th in pass defense DVOA and has allowed 26 or more points in four of the past five games. The Cowboys were torched by Chicago quarterback Mitchell Trubisky for three touchdowns in their 31-24 Week 14 loss.

With a full cabinet of receiving weapons, Goff should have a multitude of options against a Cowboys defense that has been particularly generous to opposing tight ends. Los Angeles’ Tyler Higbee should have little trouble replicating his overall QB1 and QB5 performances the past two weeks against a Cowboys team that has allowed 70 receptions, 691 receiving yards, and five touchdowns to the position.

We project Goff at 1.7 passing touchdowns which are 20% above his implied total. The +101 juice also makes this a very enticing 10-rated prop play.

I would bet this prop down to -110.

Browns RB Kareem Hunt

  • The Opponent: Cardinals (4:05 p.m. ET)
  • The Pick: Over 3.5 Receptions (+112)
  • Bet Quality: 8/10

Arizona has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards (629) to the running back position, which is great news for Cleveland’s Kareem Hunt.

Since his return from suspension in Week 10, Hunt has averaged 5.6 targets and 4.4 receptions per game. Hunt has produced every time he’s touched the ball, with the fourth-highest production premium among all running backs since his return (PlayerProfiler).

With Arizona focusing their attention on the lead running back Nick Chubb, quarterback Baker Mayfield should connect with Hunt for his most productive performance this season.

We project Hunt for 3.9 receptions which are 14% more than his implied total. This has the best juice of any 8 or higher rated prop on our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.

I would be this 8-rated prop down to -110.

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