Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool Picks: Fade the Dolphins’ Historic Ineptitude?
Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Miami Dolphins fan
- Is Miami's historic ineptitude enough to simply auto-fade the Dolphins against the Chargers in Week 4?
- Travis Reed analyzes projected winning percentages to determine the best NFL survivor pool picks for Week 4.
There wasn’t much drama regarding NFL survivor pools in Week 3. A large majority of picks were on the Cowboys and they cruised to a 31-6 win over the Dolphins. The most popular pick that lost was Seattle with 1.5% of entries.
Let’s discuss the elephant in the room. The Dolphins are the worst team in the league by a decent margin. Some entrants are going to continue to fade Miami each week with the exception of two or three weeks.
If this strategy ends up successful, only two outcomes are likely for my entries. I will lose or I will be splitting the payout with a bunch of people. Neither of these are ideal outcomes. We want a bigger piece of the pie.
So I will look for spots to go contrarian when the math supports it. We aren’t going to be contrarian for no reason, as we saw in Week 3 when the Cowboys were still the best option as the most popular pick.
Is that week this week? Let’s take a look at the win percentages for NFL Week 4.
Week 4 NFL Survivor Pool Picks
There are four teams that cross the arbitrary threshold of 70% that I look for. I also included three other teams that just missed:
It is no surprise that the team playing the Dolphins (the Chargers) is the most likely to win and the most popular pick again this week. What is notable is the gap between their projected win percentage and the other options this week is far less than we saw with Dallas in Week 1 or New England in Week 2.
The Patriots are an option as usual, but I am targeting Week 6 to use New England when it hosts the Giants. We’ll know more about Daniel Jones and plans may change, but that looks like the week I’ll finally use my Belichick bullet.
The Rams (-10) are the second-most popular pick as they host the Buccaneers. Los Angeles has two projected games remaining with a similar win percentage (vs. CIN, vs. ARI), but there is an argument to be made that this is its easiest game of the year.
The Colts are off to an impressive 2-1 start with the one loss coming in overtime. They host the Raiders who impressed in Week 1 before coming back down to earth with losses to the Chiefs and Vikings.
The Ravens, Packers and Chiefs are all around a 65% win probability, but I don’t see a reason to dip this low given the other options this week and the fact that all have better matchups in the future.
The Pick: Indianapolis Colts
As I stated in the intro, we are going to look for spots that are mathematically sound to get away from the consensus pick. The Chargers are the most likely team to win this week, but I’d rather be on a team getting 5% of the picks as opposed to another attracting 50% of the picks.
Will the Dolphins win this week? Probably not, but if and when the big upset occurs I want to make sure I am on the other side of it.